Predictions vary as some traders wonder whether a Bitcoin end-of-year rally will come as it has in previous years. What are the key levels to watch?
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We are into the final two months of the year, which have historically proven strong for Bitcoin. So, will the markets rally from current levels by the end of December?
During a recent simulation of three econometric models by Greg Giordano and Panos Mourdoukoutas, two models pointed to a rally at current levels, while the third pointed to a sharp fall.
The most bullish outcome was a rally to $12,629.15, while the most bearish was a fall to $816.91. The third model projected a small rally to $8,573.56.
Today marks the deadline for members of the public to submit proposals to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) regarding its consideration of certain Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals. A final decision on the ETFs will not be made until early 2019.
In its latest annual report, the SEC said that its focus is to reduce the amount of cryptocurrency-related scams. If the SEC succeeds in this effort, it will bolster confidence in the asset class and attract institutional and retail investors alike.
How are traders positioned as December draws closer? What are the key levels to watch, both on the upside and the downside? Let’s find out.
Bitcoin is currently close to the moving averages, which have both turned flat. The RSI is also near the midpoint, which shows a neutral sentiment. Both the bulls and the bears are currently in wait and see mode.
Positive news amid an air of “end-of-year” expectation for Bitcoin could prompt bulls to attempt to break out of $6,831.99 and rally to the next overhead resistance at $7,400.
Conversely, while markets remain largely stagnant and range-bound, pessimism and re-estimations of Bitcoin’s end of year price could prompt bears to attempt to break down from the critical support zone of $5,900–$6,075.04.
In 2018, the BTC/USD pair has held the $5,900 mark on many occasions. Hence, traders can keep a stop loss of $5,900 on their long positions. A break of this can trigger a number of stop losses, resulting in a quick fall to $5,450, and further to $5,000.
The rebound from the support at $188.35 has carried Ethereum to the 50-day SMA that is acting as resistance. If the bulls sustain above the 50-day SMA, a rally to the top of the range at $249.93 is probable.
We are not suggesting a trade at current levels because the moving averages are flat, and the RSI has just inched into the positive territory. The indicators do not point to a trend reversal.
The ETH/USD pair is likely to embark on a new uptrend once it is above $249.93. The traders can buy the close (UTC time frame) above this resistance. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below $188.35 and $167.32.
The tight range in Ripple has resolved to the upside. This shows that the bulls have the upper hand in the short-term. We expect the virtual currency to resume its upward move and reach $0.62, with minor resistance at $0.55. Therefore, we suggested a buy on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.48.
We wait for a strong close because in a downtrending market, this strategy keeps us away from fake breakouts. However, when the markets become bullish, we will change the strategy and buy the breakouts, as waiting for the price to close above a certain level can result in missed trades.
The 50-day SMA is trending up, and the 20-day EMA has also started to turn up. The RSI has also risen into positive territory. All these indicators point to a possible rally in the XRP/USD pair. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the price below $0.425.
Bitcoin Cash has embarked on a bull run of its own. Buoyed by fundamental news, it has risen sharply from $408.0182 critical support.
A break out of $488 invalidated the descending triangle pattern. Usually, when a bearish pattern is negated, it is a sign to go out and buy.
The pullback on the BCH/USD pair picked up momentum above $488 and quickly reached the overhead resistance at $591.41. If this level is crossed, the next target on the upside is $660.0753.
Traders who are long can keep their stop loss at $400. The RSI has reached the overbought zone. Therefore, a couple of days of consolidation is possible, after which the digital currency should resume its recovery and try to break out of $660.0753.
EOS has risen close to the midpoint of the tight range of $5–$6. Both moving averages are flat, and the RSI is just above the 50 level.
The current bounce from around $5 might carry the EOS/USD pair to $6, above which a rally to $6.8299 is probable. If the bulls fail to scale the $6 mark, the range bound action will be extended.
We anticipate the digital currency to start a new uptrend on a breakout above $6.8299. The target levels to keep in mind are $9.1668 and $11.4. Traders who are holding long positions can keep their stops at $4.90.
Stellar has broken out of the moving averages. It is currently attempting to sustain above the downtrend line of the descending triangle. We anticipate strong resistance in the $0.24–$0.27 zone.
If the bulls sustain above the downtrend line of the descending triangle, it will invalidate the bearish pattern, which is a bullish sign.
Above $0.27, we expect the XLM/USD pair to rally to $0.36, with minor resistance at $0.304. Traders can profit from the rally by initiating long positions on a close (UTC time frame) above $0.27, and keeping the stop loss at $0.20.
The bounce from the $47.246–$49.466 support zone has carried Litecoin to the 50-day SMA, triggering our buy recommendation made in a previous analysis. Traders who have entered long positions can maintain their stops at $47.
The bears might provide stiff resistance in the area between the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line of the descending triangle. Traders can book partial profits near the downtrend line and hold the remaining position, because a break out of $60 will invalidate the bearish pattern and can result in a rally to the top of the range at $69.279.
The LTC/USD pair has been stuck in the $49.466–$69.279 range since early August. If the bulls clear the overhead resistance, we anticipate a new uptrend to start. Therefore, positional traders can go long on a close above $69.279.
The bears could not capitalize on the break down of the symmetrical triangle. Cardano found support at $0.068989 and bounced from there. It has again entered into the triangle, invalidating the breakdown. This is a positive sign.
If the bulls push the price above $0.082207, the ADA/USD pair might rally to the minimum pattern target of $0.114618. Aggressive traders can buy a close above $0.082207 with the stop loss placed below the intraday low of Oct. 31. If the price struggles to break out of $0.094256, the stops can be trailed higher, or the positions can be closed.
Monero rose above the immediate resistance of $112.44 on Oct. 4. If the bulls sustain above this level, a rally to the top of the range is probable. Above $128.65, the upward move can extend to $150, which will act as a stiff resistance.
If the bears push the price below the 50-day SMA, range bound action might continue. The XMR/USD pair will weaken if it slides below $100.453.
We shall wait for a new uptrend to begin before recommending any trades.
TRON has reached the midpoint of the $0.0183–$0.02815521 range. It has risen above both moving averages and the RSI has also climbed above the 50 level, which is a mild positive.
Though the movement inside the range is random, if the bulls succeed in sustaining above the moving averages, a gradual climb to the top of the range at $0.02815521 is probable. A new uptrend might start if the price scales above $0.03.
If buying dries up at current levels, the TRX/USD pair can slide to $0.02134798. A break down of this support can retest the critical support at $0.0183.
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Author: Rakesh Upadhyay