Bitcoin overnight trading (US CST) sees some downside after 6600 was tested. This is not a true resistance area but as discussed over the past few months has provided a pivotal area for BTC throughout the bear market this year.
After being rejected here, price continued downward as BTC has technically only “retraced” less than 1/2 of the previous leg down* – a sign of higher downside risk. Therefore, the 6460 active downside protection area was hit exactly during the formation of the last 4-hour candle.
BTC has maintained step-ladder-like price action to see the 6600 mark broken but ultimately still struggles to find a point past this area. Keep in mind that the next true resistance area to beat is at 6800 firm. However, 6400 support also continues to hold.
Price action has been hanging in the balance between the two – giving an indication of how much indecision remains in the market at this time. Thus, 6460 downside protection remained active to protect profits by keeping any continued fallout to a minimum.
The next stage to watch for will be a channel formation if BTC holds the current area firm while slowly creeping to the upside. This will be shown with the next 24 hours of trading.
Stochastic levels now maintain a downward course, however, they still look to seek overbought (>80) levels. This will trigger continued buy signals near the 6500 area if stochastic pivots once again.
MACD has now crossed to the downside and gives additional reason to protect profits.
BTC is currently a No Play/Sell at this time.
Futures Traders – trade the trend. The short-term trend is short, however, it may pivot if channel formation is at hand. Capital conservation is important at this time – no trade scenario until confirmation of patter + trend.