Bitcoin Price Still Has Enough in the Tank to Break $10,000

bitcoin price analysis chart BTC price

Bitcoin price fell around 3% overnight to test $8420, retesting previous highs, before having a sharp recovery back towards $8680. Let’s take a closer look at the bitcoin price analysis to see what’s in store for the number one crypto asset.


1-Hour Chart

Looking at the hourly bitcoin price 00 chart, following the breakout from the ascending triangle, we can see that BTC has made a decent recovery following the initial rejection at close to $9k.

BTC/USD is now consolidating just below the $8700 price level, meaning that a push above the breakdown level will need to take place before it can be a confirmed response by the bulls.

Supporting the idea that this may be the case, is the MAC-d crossing with its signal line suggesting that price momentum may have favored the bulls. Additionally, the sharp rejection by the RSI from the oversold region implies that the bulls may well still be in buy the dip mode.

Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart, we can see the emphasis on bitcoin breaking through and then finding support at levels which were previously resistance during the bear market. This simple illustration of bulls consistently breaking through prior resistance with momentum leaves many bulls bemused by those still beating the bearish drum.

The next level to break is the psychological level of $10k, which many have doubted to be possible.

The breakout from the consolidation in the low $8k range implies that actually, a target of the bullish ascending triangle will be around $11.5k, beyond the $10k barrier many are looking towards for resistance.

Weekly Chart

BTC price

The weekly chart provides a slightly different picture with the parabolic advance appearing less steep than on lower time frames.  The MAC-d continues to rise with impressive strength as shown by the histogram continuing to print higher highs for an unprecedented 16 out of 17 weeks this year.

As the bitcoin price continues to move upward with such momentum one begins to wonder where there will be significant short interest, given that there has not been any success for bears thus far in this market.

Fuel in the Tank

bitcoin price analysis BTC price

Looking at the analysis of the short positions at Bitfinex and combining it with Fibonacci retracement levels from the highs of 2017 to the lows of 2018, we can see that there is a story to be told.

Bifinex shorts bottomed out at the initial phase of the bear market at somewhere between the $11.5k – $13.5k level. From here, huge short interest piled on taking the shorts from lows of 9.5k BTC to find a bottom of 17k BTC, a floor from which has not been broken.

Therefore on a macro level, with the price rising, we know that shorts are either underwater or facing serious pressure to close in profit and that there is potentially 9.5k shorts to be resolved at Bitfinex.

Additionally, institutions and pro traders typically look to auto enter the market on 61.8% retracement levels, which is at $13.6k. The 50% Fibonacci level is also the existing target for the previously mentioned flag in this analysis.

Therefore, despite a rising long to short ratio and pressure on funding at Bitmex, it appears that there may still be fuel in the tank for BTC price to move higher. Bulls will, however, need to bear in mind that there are CME gaps below and ultimately euphoria usually leads to disappointment and as such should still proceed with caution.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


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Bitcoin Price Analysis – $8.5K Now in Sight to End Bear Market

bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price broke out of a bottom consolidation overnight, jumping 11%, reclaiming the $8k handle ahead of the weekly close.  We take a look at the price action as we head towards the weekly close.


Bitcoin Price: 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows that bitcoin price 00 broke from $7,247 to $7,980 in one hourly candle, smashing through and past the $7,878 level from which the 20% decline occurred at Bitstamp.

This is particularly encouraging, on the basis that one may have expected to find short interest at this level.

Furthermore, this area also acted as support on the first time and resulted in a further push to find highs over $8,100, which implies that there is bullish momentum in this move.

The MACD has crossed bullish with its signal line and is now trending higher above zero, with higher highs on the histogram. The move was also supported by strong volume.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart

Taking an early look at the weekly chart, we can see that the resistance currently being faced, dates back to July of 2018. Interestingly, we can see that the volume candle for this week is the highest seen in 2019 with half a day of trade remaining.

The volume node at the price range of $6,150 – $7,000 is now acting as support along with the 100 MA and that above $8,453 and there is relatively little price volume history, which may mean that there is surprisingly little resistance above.

The MACD is in confluence with the other key lower timeframes and has now been crossed bullish since the first week of February 2019. All of these factors point to bitcoin being bullish, although there is still some time remaining on the weekly candle and last week’s sell-off acts as a stark reminder that things can change very quickly in this market.

Weekend Pain for Futures Traders

Bitcoin’s push through the weekend has meant that assuming Bitcoin can maintain its prices through today above $7180, there will be another CME gap up in price caused by weekend trading, which will cause more pain for those shorting Bitcoin.

These gaps are typically backfilled eventually, meaning that the $7k level may be a key level in the coming weeks if and when Bitcoin eventually corrects.  The weekend trading for futures traders will be becoming somewhat of a headache for the traders who are unable to act in instances of weekend volatility such as those seen today.

Looking Forward

As BTC/USD heads into the close, there are many indicators implying that there are still legs in the bullish move and that bitcoin could press higher towards the $9,500 where there is a key Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%.

Breaking the $8,500 level will be extremely significant and is seen by many as being key to reversing the bear market.

Despite all the bullish momentum, traders will remember several painful double tops after pullbacks around these prices in 2018 and will need to remain vigilant.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will The Parabolic Advance Continue to $9.5K?

bitcoin price chart BTC

Bitcoin price has continued its spate of volatility so far this week. After hitting highs of $8335 it has since been trying to establish wether it can conquer $8k and establish it as resistance. As we reach the middle of the week ahead of the East coast open, we take a look at the price action and what lies ahead.


Bitcoin Price: Daily Chart

bitcoin BTC/USD

Bitcoin price 00 has put in two solid green candles so far this week accompanied with strong trading volume which has carried the number one crypto asset across the $8k handle and maintained the 2019 parabola.

The MAC D continues to print higher highs on its histogram illustrating that the move is still carrying momentum and may have the strength to continue higher, despite in all probability being towards the end of the parabolic phase.

As we know form December 2017, the final phase can carry the largest move in the shortest amount of time, both to the upside and to the downside. So the lower timeframes are now key to pay attention to when understanding what happens next.

BTC 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the hourly chart, its easier to see that bitcoin suffered an abrupt rejection from little over $8300 yesterday, retracing as low as $7600 where a rather convincing bottom was found.

Since then, a sharp v-shaped reversal has occurred and bitcoin now looks to have put in a higher low, which is very encouraging for the bulls.

Bitcoin now needs to break $8k, with $8200 being a critical level. If BTC/USD can put in a new high, its hugely increases the odds of bitcoin testing $9k before the end of the week. Lose yesterday’s lows of $7600 and that would mean a break in the parabola and a test of much lower prices.

Order Book

A brief look at the overbook, illustrates  quite clearly that there is quite sizable buying interest below, as illustrated by the yellow blocks, which further supports the idea that the bulls are not done yet with bitcoin this week.

We can however see that there is supply overhead around the $9k area as we would expect.

Weekly Chart

Returning to the weekly chart, we can see that bitcoin continues to reach out towards the 38.2% retracement level which is currently acting as a magnet, attracting BTC to the mid $9000s.

Assuming that bitcoin can regain $8200, it would be reasonable to assume that the bulls will make it their intention to test around this region.

As we come to the final phase of the parabola, which can offer the highest returns but also carries the biggest risk, all eyes will be on bitcoin once again.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: This is the Next Bull Target if $7500 Breaks

bitcoin price target

Bitcoin finished the week at $6975, up a staggering 22 percent. With the market echoing the parabolic moves of late 2017, let’s take a closer look at the price action to see if this is the beginning or the end of the rally for Bitcoin.


Bitcoin Price Weekly Chart

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that bitcoin price 00 is showing extremely strong momentum and has entered a parabolic move.

The MacD is now crossed bullish for the first time since May of 2018 and the histogram continues to print higher highs. Everything is apparently rosy in the bulls’ camp.

Monday has gotten off to a strong start, with bitcoin pushing on and up 4.7 percent at the time of writing, having found support at the 23.6 percent retracement level, or around $7,000.

With the parabola still in tact, it seems likely that BTC/USD will look to press higher towards the next Fibonacci level at 38.2 percent ($9450) if momentum and the parabola can be maintained.

1-Hour Chart

The 1-hour chart shows bitcoin having broken out of a consolidation with strong volume an a bullish MACD, following the retracement from the highs of the $7500s, back to $6800. The technical target of such a move is the highs at $7500, which at the time of writing looks to have a strong possibility of being tested.

4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour BTC/USD chart shows that if bitcoin can consolidate into a bull flag and break above the highs of $7500, the weekly fib of the mid $9000s will be the next target.

The Mac D is about to cross bullish once more. Although the strong selling volume at the previous highs implies that there may be some consolidation before it is overcome.

Bitcoin Futures: Mind the Gap

Despite the bullish outlook, the CME futures opened up 14 percent, from the close of $6290. Typically traders expect these gaps to be filled and so at some point there is likely to be some downside risk to at least test this level. Although as stated, it does not appear to be on the cards early this week.

bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price, therefore, looks to be capitalizing on momentum going into the second week of May, with BTC hodlers once again holding onto the best performing asset of the year (thus far).

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Bitcoin Price Breaks Weekly Highs as Bulls Stampede Into Monthly Close

bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price has been trading in a tight $147 range so far this week, which has been the case now for around 5 days, while the market attempts to digest the information around Bitfinex and Tether.  As we close out the month, we take a look at the BTC/USD charts and what may lie ahead.


Bitcoin Price: 1-Month Chart

Looking at the monthly chart, Bitcoin price 00 has had a tremendous month, kicking off in the early hours of the second of March, taking Bitcoin from lows of little over $4k to highs of $5627 – or up around 39% and now some 70% for the year which is in stark contrast to 2018.

Despite looking unable to print a high across the $6555 level, from which BTC fell in November 2018, the current move goes a long way to reigniting interest in the market.

Bitcoin is on track to close out with the Highest volume for 2019, favoring the bulls and has printed a third consecutive higher low on the mac-d histogram, which is now flattening out and looks like it may be able to avoid crossing below zero which would be considered bearish.

50-month moving average also looks as though it is now likely to act as reasonable support should it be tested and now lies at around $3400.

4-Hour Chart

Looking closer at the 4-hour chart, bitcoin is trading at the upper of the weekly range, around $5200.  The MACD is trending to the upside and the histogram is printing higher highs.

Despite the uncertainty around Bitfinex and Tether, there seem to be some signs that the bulls want to try to break the weekly highs and finish the month closer to the mid $5000s.

At the time of publishing, Bitcoin price has indeed broken to new weekly highs and printed a now higher weekly high up at $5281, which goes some way to suggest that the bulls mean business going into the close weekly close.

Open-Short Positions

It is certainly possible that this is just another chapter in the Bitfinex / Tether saga which eventually works itself out in the end. This is also the opinion of many veteran traders in the market.

However, the open-short positions at Bitfinex are now at all-time highs for the year, with large interest rates attached.  This will inevitably have life for only so long, with potential upside risk now threatening as the cost of being short increasing across the board.

With only a matter of hours remaining, the short term risk appears to be to the upside however there remains the overhanging Tether risk, which will continue to loom over the market as we move into May.

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Bitcoin Price Could Soar Higher As $500M New Tethers Are On The Move

bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin price is up 1.7% for the week heading into Easter weekend. Let’s take a look at the price action to see if BTC/USD will press higher.


Bitcoin Price 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour bitcoin price chart paints a picture of consolidation preceding a definitive move. With weekly highs of $5308 hit overnight and lows of $4950 rejected on Monday, bitcoin trading today at $5250 illustrates bitcoin’s intentions are to move higher in the short term.

The weekly opening of $5167 is now the first line of defense for the bulls. This level was broken and retested yesterday before being sharply rejected preceding a move to new weekly highs – a good sign for higher prices in the back end of the week.

If bitcoin price 00 can establish itself above $5150, it is probable that the monthly and yearly high of $5465 will be tested before the end of April.

The 4-hour MAC-D is above zero and still crossed bullish above its signal line. But it is printing lower highs on the histogram, which does imply that the move overnight is running out of steam.

Relatively speaking, the volume is also contracting, which would also hint that a bigger move is in the works as traders position themselves.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart clearly demonstrates that bitcoin bulls could ideally do with the weekly closing up over the $5300 level to avoid another doji indecision candle that many market participants would view as being a sign of weakness.

The MACD histogram combined with the green volume and candles does a lot to demonstrate how in control the bulls have been since the yearly lows of mid-February at around $3350.

More Tethers Please

The chart showing the market cap for USDT shows that since the 25% breakout in Bitcoin price from $4k to $5k at the start of April, the Tether market cap has also advanced 25%, or $500bn since the move: from $2bn to $2.5bn.

This is quite significant on the basis that it demonstrates that new money has flown into the space after the price hike with China being a major source.

The reason this is significant is that the buying interest has quickly followed price, indicating that buying interest is increasing as sharply as the price, which could provide additional momentum.

This is good news for the bulls who can feel more comfortable that the noise around the price hike being in relation to one buyer was more likely bear fiction, than fact.

Still a Bear Market

While there are very positive signs for the bulls, we must remember that bitcoin has had a stupendous run so far in 2019 and is also yet to post macro higher highs above the key $6000 resistance.

Until that occurs, despite all of the positive indicators, we remain bullish within what is still a bear market until proven otherwise. A break out above $5500 in the near term will go a long way to making that change a very real possibility in 2019.

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Incoming Golden Cross Could Push Bitcoin Price Over $6,000

bitcoin price golden cross

With Bitcoin price having made such impressive gains so far in 2019, let’s take a look to see what is likely to happen next. 


Bitcoin Price: Weekly Chart

Bitcoin price 00 closed the week at $5162 having established new 2019 highs at $5478. This marked the end of a seventh consecutive green candle win streak, closing out on a spinning top doji – an indecision candle.

The weekly chart shows that the price of bitcoin is currently being held down by the declining 50 week moving average. Interestingly, this is exactly what also occurred during the end of the 2015 bear market.

Despite the weekly green candle streak failing, the MACD histogram has completed its tenth weekly higher high, illustrating the strength of the emergin bullish trend within this bear market. The MACD line itself is now also threatening to break above its zero line, which is would be for the first time since October 2015.

The On balance volume indicator, which plots a combined cumulative volume and price direction, also shows a strong break out of the downward trend and confirms the 2019 trend is supported by strong buying interest in the $3000 price range.

2015 vs. 2019 Bitcoin Price

Looking back at the 2019 and 2015 bitcoin price charts, it clearly emphasises that the scenario is very similar – the 200 WMA has acted as support and following a strong break out to the upside, the 50 WMA has immediately acted as a roadblock.

It would therefore seem likely that BTC/USD will need to at least backtest the $4100 breakout level, if not the rapidly rising 200 WMA, which is now north of $3500.

However, the main difference between 2015 and 2019 is that there has been a large break in the volume trend to the upside as mentioned earlier, which did not come until later in the 2015 bear market.

Combining this with the fact that altcoins such as Litecoin (LTC) appear to be correcting quicker than last time, may suggest that a backtest for Bitcoin may turn out to be a brief event if it occurs at all.

4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour bitcoin price chart paints a picture of indecisiveness. Generally speaking bitcoin price continues to build upward momentum after finding support over the weekend at the $5,000 level.

This will be the key level to defend early in at the start of this week. Should the $5k level hold, and BTC can progress towards $5250 and $5300, there is a reasonable chance that it will press on towards $5900, with the current price action being a somewhat messy ascending triangle.

If the buying pressure in the lower $5ks cannot be maintained, BTC does not have a huge amount of trading history in the $4000s, which could mean that we see bitcoin quickly break down from a head and shoulders top. In this scenario, $4000-$4500 would likely to be the next stop.

Golden Cross in Sight

Bitcoin price continues to show strength on higher timeframes and is on course to make a golden cross on the 50-200 day moving average, before the end of April.

With strong buying volume witnessed in the break from the $3,000s, it would be reasonable to assume that any correction back to the $4,000s could be short lived and a near term close across $5350 on the daily chart may imply that a test of the $6,000 handle could be in the cards before the end of Q2 2019, if not the end of April.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Caps 7-Week Winning Streak

Amid Bitcoin Price Chaos, Industry Welcomes Two New Blockchain ETFs

Bitcoin price completed an impressive week last week with gains of 30%, rising from lows of $4053 to weekly highs of $5345. With many calling an end of the bear market, we take a looking at the outlook for the market going into the second week of April.


Weekly Chart

The weekly bitcoin price 00 chart shows that BTC/USD completed an impressive seventh consecutive weekly green candle, accompanied by the highest volume of 2019.

The MACD remains crossed bullish and is rapidly moving towards being positive, having been bearish since mid-May 2018.

There is still a void in VPVR, which illustrates the price where volume traded. This suggests that Bitcoin still has some room to run higher, which is something we have previously discussed with the $5k price range being open ground.

The 50-week moving average capped the initial attempt to break out of the bull market in mid-2015 before pressing price back down to the 200 week moving average support. There is certainly a case for expecting something similar in 2019.

Should this occur, the 200 WMA would most likely lie around $3800. This would mean a 78.6% retracement of the move we’ve seen in 2019. But a move like this would likely take some time to play out.

Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart early on Monday, bitcoin price made an attempt to break higher, which has since been pushed back down into a bearish shooting star candle, which is in the process of forming on the daily candle. There is however, plenty of time for the bulls to find their feet with the US markets yet to open.

The MACD continues to trend higher above zero, but there are signs of the bullish momentum fading, with a lower high being printed on the histogram. Volume is beginning to return to levels seen ahead of the breakout. Price appreciation on decreasing volume is generally considered a bearish sign.

Should BTC/USD look to retrace in the short term, the 50% Fibonacci level of $4355 would most likely be the area of interest for the bulls, with the breakout level and 61.8% retracement of $4120 being the next target.

1-Hour Order Book Analysis

Looking at the order book, bitcoin has a block of buying interest around the $4800 price point. And on lower time frames, we can see that there is still a generally bullish ascending triangle pattern in the price action, which is positive ahead of the US close with a lack of sizable sell orders visible overhead.

 

Looking Ahead

Despite the selloff on Monday morning, bitcoin price has managed to maintain above $5100.

Holding ground above the $5,100 handle early in the week will be key to continuing bullish momentum and any attempt to explore the remaining price volume void in the VPVR.

Although it seems unlikely at this stage, a break to the upside could see BTC quickly push on towards the $5500 – $5700 price range, enticing new buyers into the market.

A breakdown in price momentum would bring those who have already taken profit back into the market, alongside new prospective buyers. So it would be reasonable to expect a decent bounce back up to the $5,000 level quite quickly.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Buckle Up, $5K is Open Range

bitcoin price chart

An impressive move higher for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies yesterday took bitcoin price across the $5k handle for the first time in 2019. Let’s take a look at the market to try to determine if we can expect more upside to come.


Bitcoin Price: Daily Chart

Breaking down the daily chart, we can see that bitcoin price performed a measured move right out of the Technical Analysis textbook.

The Adam & Eve bottom pattern which had an added Inverse Head and shoulders, within the Eve of the cup presented a $5.1k target, which we have tracked for some time as having potential to be met via a very fast move due to there being a void in the history of traded volume in that range.

Usually we would expect a throwback to retest the breakdown range, which would occur around the $4,000 level.  However there still remains a volume void above $5k, which is how BTC found its way down to $3100 so quickly.

Therefore, it stands to reason that a move higher should at this stage is not completely impossible to consider. This would imply a move in bitcoin price pressing on towards $5500. This $5500 level is between the 61.8 and 78.6% Fibonacci levels, which is where typically we would expect to find short interest in this instance.

Hourly Chart

Looking at the hourly chart, BTC price has been pressing on during Wednesday and looks like it is threatening to push higher.

There is a bearish divergence on the MACD, but it is putting in higher lows on the MACD histogram. The stochastic RSI is crossed bullish in the oversold territory, so these two along with the general price action may tempt the bulls back into the market. A break of $5100 seems probable to take bitcoin higher to test $5500 at this stage.

Should the bulls fail to move on, it would be reasonable to expect bitcoin price to come down to try and find support around the breakout of $4250-300, which would be close to an 80% retracement.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows that the Orange 50 WMA line is rapidly declining and currently at around $5700. The 50-week moving average played a pivotal role in the previous bear market in 2015, when it acted as resistance while the bulls attempted to push on to confirm the bear market had ended.

Given the similarities in the timing, the retracement levels and the market structure, it would seem reasonable to assume that this could again be the case, given the confluence with the retracement levels in that area.

Bear vs. Bull Scenarios

As it stands, the bear market is still not entirely over but there has been a change in the trend, with bitcoin price making a significant higher high on the weekly chart. This is also backed by a large amount of volume after it became apparent that there was more demand than supply in the $3000s.

What happens next is uncertain due to the lack of BTC/USD trading history in the $5000 range. Ideally for the bulls, a consolidation range between $4000 and $6000 would now be established for the remainder of the year.

For the bears, a complete failure to interest buyers at $3900 and the 50 & 100-day moving averages would signify weakness and that the market could press on lower.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Must Break $4050 to Sustain Momentum

bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin price bounced back 3% on Wednesday once again taking the price back across the $4k handle. Let’s take a closer look at the BTC price action to determine if there is a sign of sustaining the $4k price point for the rest of the week.


4-HOUR CHART

Looking a the 4-hour chart, we can see that Bitcoin price broke back through the weekly open of $3978 early on Wednesday morning on roughly the same volume, which brought price down to $3850 earlier in the week.

This was fairly important development, because as we mentioned earlier in the week, $3800 is the Monthly open and as such, the bulls need to defend this price point until Sunday to record a second consecutive green candle and avoid a rather nasty doji monthly close on Sunday evening.

Since then, BTC/USD has been consolidating above $4k.  In order to confirm that the bulls mean business, there will need to be another attempt to break across the monthly high of $4050, or risk recording a lower high, which would confirm that the bears are in control.

The MACD is currently above zero but is printing lower high on the histogram, suggesting that there will need to be a retest of yesterday’s breakout.

ORDER BOOK ANALYSIS

Looking at the order book, we can see that there remains a large order block of short interest at $4050, which can be visualized by the yellow block above price. This has effectively helped serve as a barrier to higher prices for the entire of March.

WEEKLY CHART

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin price is now trading outside of the 20-week moving average, which has acted as resistance through the entirety of the bear market.

Mondays lows of $3850, which subsequently saw a rejection, was effectively a back test of the 20-week moving average – an encouraging development.

The weekly Mac D histogram is putting in a healthy seventh consecutive higher high, illustrating the extent to which the bearish momentum has declined.

The OBV, which combines price and volume, shows that there has also been a trend change, printing a breakout of the down trend for the first time since Jan 2018. This is also encouraging although overall volume is decreasing as price has been increasing – and this can be seen as a bearish divergence.

The Bollinger bands are also rapidly contracting at a rate of around 10% per, suggesting a bigger move being in the works. Its outcome will answer the question as to whether BTC is merely witnessing a bearish consolidation before more downside to test the mid $2000s, or if we are seeing a more significant bottom for Bitcoin and the crypto currency market.

What Happens Next

In summary, the bounce back in price to retest the $4k level is encouraging for the bulls. But the market is awaiting an injection of volume to dictate the next directional move, which is getting closer with the monthly close looming.

For the bulls, a break through $4050 will open the door to higher prices and is really a minimum place that the bulls need to find price at the end of the week, whereas the bears will see a victory being a weekly close at or below $3800.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Must Defend $3800 By The Monthly Close

bull bitcoin price

Bitcoin price has got off to a lackluster start, finding weekly lows of $3850, down from $3980 after finishing the week on a fifth consecutive green candle. Let’s take a closer look at the BTC price action to look what may be in store for the final week of March.


4-HOUR CHART

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that Bitcoin price has been in a downward trajectory almost immediately since Monday morning. The relatively high volume sell-off found lows of $3850, from which it bounced to $3940 but was subsequently rejected.

Price action has since been tightening up around $3900 but continues to threaten more downside action as a bearish pennant is forming. This would imply a potential downside risk of new weekly lows around $3800. The MACD supports this scenario as it continues its downward trajectory and the histogram printing new lows. In other words, the bears are in control.

1-DAY CHART

Looking at the 1-Day Bitcoin Chart, the market remains in a bottoming pattern, which requires completion. This will only occur if bitcoin price can close with a higher high above $4250 on the daily chart.

The monthly open of $3780 can be seen to be at the 50 and 100-day moving averages. The bearish momentum currently shows an initial target on the 4-hour chart at around $3800.

Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day moving averages on the daily chart are potentially acting as support where the bulls generally need to defend the monthly open. This implies that the slow the bleed to the downside may meet some resistance at around $3800.

Volume in the BTC market remains to be slowly in decline, which is implicit of a bigger move being in the works. The MACD on the daily remains above zero, but is slowly trending downwards and there it crossed bearish with its signal line.

MONTHLY CHART

With five days remaining before bitcoin price closes the month, the weekly chart shows that BTC/USD is on course for a second consecutive monthly green candle for the first time in this bear market.

Price continues to be supported by the 50-Month moving average, which is currently at the lows of $3185 seen in December 2018.

The MACD line is threatening to pull up before crossing into bearish territory, which can be seen by a second consecutive higher low on the histogram.

Therefore, the levels mentioned earlier will be critical for the bulls. If the market can flush down to $3800 and bounce back up to around $4000, the monthly close will look very positive for the bulls.

However, if the bulls can only produce a disappointing $3800 doji candle, or worse, the bears will be in position to capitalize in April. So these final few days of March will be pivotal as we slide back to $3800 on Tuesday.

In summary: bulls have some work to do to end March on a positive note, with $3800 being the critical battle ground.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bears Look to Trap Bulls Into Weekly Close

bitcoin price bear

As the Bitcoin price weekly candle draws towards a close for the week we take a look at what the performance over the week looks like going into the final week of March.


Bitcoin price: 4-HOUR CHART

Looking at the4-hour chart, we can see that the bitcoin price has spent the last few days oscillating around the weekly opening price of $3965, with the bears continually attacking this level.

The MACD has broken through it zero line having turned bearish on the dump from the weekly highs at over $4056 all the way down to $3920, which along with a generally downward trending MACD implies that the bears are in control going into Sunday evening, however the bulls have proven to defend the weekly candle in the last two weeks of asking.

Should the bears want to define the weekly candle, the mid-week lows of $3920 will be the target, whereas the bulls will want to close above the weekly open of $3965.

1-DAY CHART

A look at the 1-Day Chart shows that bitcoin price is showing signs of struggle to complete the Adam and Eve and Inverse head and shoulders classical charting patterns, which would imply an upside target between $4800 and $5200.

Failed moves typically lead to fast moves, so if BTC cannot break back to test the $4,000 and loses the weekly lows, the 50 and 100 DMA at $3780 and $3730 respectively will be the first line of defense for the bulls. These levels have acted as support since Mid-February when they turned from resistance and into support.

WEEKLY CHART

With only a few hours remaining, the weekly chart shows that bitcoin price is still being capped by the center line of the Bollinger Bands, which is the 20 week moving average.

Should BTC manage to hold the mid $3900s, bitcoin will open the final week of March above the 20 WMA will be for the first time of 2019. It is clear to see that a more definitive move is on the brink of occurring with the pinch of the 200 WMA and the 20 WMA being clearly defined on the chart.

The weekly MACD will print a fifth green bar on the histogram and continues to trend upwards, but has some way to go before it crosses its zero line and is in bullish territory.

BITCOIN SENTIMENT

Looking at sentiment in the Bitcoin market, we can see that the Bitcoin September Futures contract at Bitmex is currently trading around $40 below the spot price, meaning that the expectation of the market is that BTC prices will be lower moving forwards.

This of course presents an opportunity for the bulls who believe the opposite to be true. So they’ll be able to pick up bitcoin at a discounted rate. But this would be against market expectation and the discount is to be expected in a bear market environment.

The Long/Short ratio at Bitfinex has crept higher in contrast to the futures movement, and is now up at 1.18, which has room to manoeuvre higher towards where it usually tops out around 1.5 if there is a break to the upside.

The longs and shorts total open interest at Bitfinex is down to 44k BTC – down from nearly double that in Dec-2019. This implies that there are speculators awaiting the bigger move to commence before taking on any risk in the market, which further supports the idea the next move will be a sharp one.

Overall, bitcoin price remains locked in a bear market and is grinding on upwards in an encouraging fashion. But the bulls must take control of the market in the final week of March as the 20 week moving average continues to suppress the price.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Breakthrough Means $5,000 Now In The Cards

bitcoin price break $4000

After peppering the $4,000 price point for days, Bitcoin price closed over above the $4k barrier for the first time in March. Let’s take a closer look at the price action to see it there is any sign that this time the price level can be maintained.


DAILY CHART

The Daily Bitcoin price chart clearly shows that bitcoin price 00 is well underway with its fourth attempt to break $4k since the December 2018 lows. The market posture remains in that of a bottom pattern with an Adam and Eve and an inverse head and shoulders within the Eve Cup.

Should these classical charting patterns play out, it would imply a move towards a $5,000 bitcoin price would be on the cards. However volume remains low and this multi-month pattern is taking its time to grind out.

The MACD is crossed bullish with its signal line and remains in bullish territory, but is generally quite flat, which is also the case with the volume.

4-HOUR CHART

The 4-hour chart shows that despite the daily close being above $4k, the previous resistance found at $4040 last week, remains an issue for the bulls. The task at hand is to go some way to confirm the move, and turn previous resistance at $4000 into support.

Should this occur and BTC begins to challenge $4200 to break the yearly highs, new buyers may start entering the market. This may also push out bearish positioned traders who will look to exit.

The MACD at the time of writing shows that the bulls are starting to look somewhat tired and significant buyers failed to step in at the start of the EU session.

Looking at the orderbook, we can see that sizable sell orders remain on the books, acting as a hurdle of liquidity suppressing the BTC price, which the bulls need to overcome. There are signs that the bulls are starting to backfill orders at $4000, however, which will be necessary to sustain price at these levels.

Failure to do so amidst low volume will potentially mean that the bears will step in and push the market back down to retest last week’s lows of $3850.

WEEKLY CHART

The Weekly chart shows bitcoin is on its fifth consecutive weekly green candle and is notably mid break of the 20-week moving average (WMA), which is the center of the Bollinger bands. This would be significant as it has previously acted as resistance.

The upper band of the Bollinger bands, which is two standard deviations from the center line, provides confluence with the targets discussed of around $5000 for bitcoin price. Whereas a failure implies risk to the downside of around $2500. But this would mean the bears needing to break the 200 WMA, which has held on each asking thus far.

In summary, bitcoin price continues to grind its way higher but continues to threaten a more significant move. With 10 days remaining in March and with price being pressed against $4,000 once again, it is likely that the next move with be a definitive one in terms of dictating the price action for the following few weeks.

However, the market remains in bearish territory, which must not be overlooked. Higher highs across multiple timeframes will be the first step in a trend change. But until then, despite the good news on low timeframes, the macro view of bitcoin price remains bearish until proven otherwise.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Big Move Awaits After 4 Consecutive Weekly Gains

bitcoin price green

Bitcoin price completed a fourth consecutive week with a green candle close for the first time since April 2018, reaching highs during the week of $4040 and finding support when $3800 was tested. We take a closer look at the price action and what lies ahead for the week.


WEEKLY CHART

The Weekly chart shows that going into the week, Bitcoin price 00 is applying pressure to the 20-week moving average (the center on the Bollinger bands). This has proven too much to overcome in the bear market, with the only two previous breaks during 2018 failing the following week.

This is clearly a critical level, with BTC price finding another reason for resistance on top of the $4,000 psychological level. Despite this, bitcoin continues applying pressure to the upside, rather than the downside.

The upper and lower bands (being two standard deviations from the 20 WMA) are still rather far apart and suggest that any sizable move would have the scope to take BTC towards either upwards to $5000 or down to $2500.

Support in the 200 WMA lies below and will act as a last line of defense should the bulls need to rely upon it. Whether it be the 20 WMA or the 200 WMA, which ultimately breaks in the near term, it will likely result in a fast move.

DAILY CHART

The Daily Chart shows that bitcoin price finished Sunday on a red candle and is currently a doji midway through Monday. The market continues to be trapped in the range between $3850 and $4000, which has been the case for the best part of the last 10 days.

The market structure is that of an incomplete inverted head and shoulder pattern, which would complete on a close above $4300. This is also effectively the eve cup of a larger Adam and Eve bottom.

Should these bottom patterns play out, a move between $4885 and $5280 becomes the technical target.  The volume profile illustrates that a break above $4400 would see a void in price history and a fast move could follow.

MARKET SENTIMENT

Although generally there are reasons to be upbeat and there are signs of it being bullish on social media, the long to short ratio at Bitfinex is almost flat, leaning a slight 1% bullish and the Bitmex Futures contracts are currently trading at a discount against Spot, implying that the market is not (yet) reflecting the upbeat conversation.

With the market remaining in a long term bearish position but threatening to break to the upside, the week is likely to be a pivotal one which we will be monitoring closely at Bitcoinist.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why BTC Bulls Are Charging at $4000

bitcoin price analysis bull bulls

Bitcoin price broke out overnight and retested the $4k handle for the sixth time since the lows of the middle of December 2018. Let’s take a look at what this might mean going into the rest of the weekend.


Bitcoin Price: 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that Bitcoin price 00 bolted out of the gates almost immediately after Friday’s candle close, breaking the weekly range high of $3950 which we discussed earlier this week.

The bears stepped in and pushed bitcoin price back from highs of $4040 back down to $4000 at the time of writing.

The next objective for the bulls is that they now need to flip the prior resistance of $3950 into support.

Looking at the chart, we can see that there was an early sign of price looking to trend higher, with the OBV and MACD both breaking out to the upside around noon on Friday.

Both of these are trending higher with no sign of slowing down at present but should be observed closely over the weekend to identify where market momentum may be at risk.

1-Day Chart

Looking at the 1-day chart, we can see that there is are multifaceted arguments available to support the case that the bulls want to take this market higher, with the latest being a lower time frame breakout in the 14-month declining resistance and now an inverted head and shoulders forming, which would also act as a third higher low for Bitcoin.

Should the bulls capitalize at this point, the measured move target will be towards $5k, however, we remain in a bear market. A voluminous break and close above $4200 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. However, another failure to break the $4k handle will be a stark reminder that the bears are still very much in control.

Weekly Chart

A quick preview of the weekly chart shows that bitcoin is still being capped by the center line of the Bollinger Bands, which is the 20-week moving average.

This has been the bull’s nemesis all the way through this bear market as occurred during the 2014 decline, which was ultimately broken in  July 2015. This ultimately became the indicator that the bottom was in.

However, the bands (being two standard deviations from the 20WMA), are still very wide, which implies that a move now by either party would potentially carry a large range with it, with the highs of the bands being around $5500 and the lows being $2330.

In addition, the Stoch RSI also looks to be ready to roll over in the overbought zone, but this could still take some time to occur and is contrary to the MACD.

As we have seen several times before these markets can take some time to bottom. Indeed, although looking positive at the moment, this is not a done deal yet and there could be several more attempts to break this bear market.

Overall this is an important and pivotal point for bitcoin price. As we talked earlier in the week, pressure continues to build in this market and it is only a matter of time before a more significant move occurs.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Pressure is Building

bitcoin

Sentiment among traders and speculators in the market is extremely temperamental, swinging between bearish and bullish on an almost daily basis. The charts are relatively neutral but pressure is certainly building in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Let’s take a closer look at the action.


1-Day Chart

The one-day chart for Bitcoin (BTC) shows that, since the decline following the three-wave run up to $4200 during February, Bitcoin has been range bound — swinging around four percent either side of the March opening and establishing a monthly range between $3670 and $3950.

Overall, the chart remains is in a bottoming pattern; with the current price action attempting to put in a third higher low — but the bulls are struggling to break across $3950 and conquer the $4000 handle.

The MACD is relatively flat but has crossed marginally bearish — although, still above zero — so this does not particularly lend itself to being indicative of a direction.

The DMA 50 and 100 are crossed bullish and lie right on the monthly support and 61.8 percent retracement of the February move at $3670.

Should these fail to hold as support when interrogated by the bears, the 200 WMA lies some way below at $3400 and would act as the last line of defense for the bulls.

4-Hour Chart

The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) price action remains at the upper end of the monthly range and previous tests of the lows have been bought up quickly by the bulls.

However, the charts are leaning slightly bearish on lower timeframes, with a cross on the StochRSI crossed bearishly and a Head and Shoulders top threatening to form — which would indicate that a retest of the monthly range lows at $3670 would be on the cards. Should it fail on the third time of asking, it would imply a fast move to the lower $3500s would be possible.

Weekly Chart

Looking at the bigger picture, we can see that Bitcoin is being capped by the 20-week moving average and supported by the 200-week moving average.  This implies that whichever boundary proves to subside will be indicative of what the direction of travel may be for the next few months — and it was key when Bitcoin bottomed during 2015, although there is no guarantee that the same will occur during 2019.

Finally, looking at the structure of the market and in comparison to prior years where Bitcoin had indeed attempted to find a definitive close to the bear market, we can see why traders and speculators alike are at odds as to what will occur next.

The market posture is that of a market bottom, but as we have seen in the past, it can take multiple attempts before a bottom can be found.  If the bulls win the battle, $5,000 will be the target. Should the bears take control, mid $2000s would be in sight for the bears.

Only time will tell what will happen next, but pressure is building and it implies we will get a definitive move by the end of March.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Not As Bearish As You Think

bitcoin price

Bitcoin was up to its trademark tricks late on Friday and early into Saturday with some particularly volatile moves. We take a look at the action and what it may mean moving into the weekly close. 


Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading the week within a $200 range with lows of $3700 established on Monday and highs of $3900 tested on Wednesday. Since then, the bulls have been peppering the upper $3800 range and have looked, generally, in control of the price action.

4 Hour Chart

Late on Friday, the bears smacked the price back down to just beyond the middle of the week’s range, finding a low of £3760 (-3.5 percent), which was bought back up — pushing the price to new weekly highs. This sort of unusual price action tends to occur preceding a more definitive move.

The four-hour MACD is currently crossed bullish and trending above zero, which is in confluence with the stochastic RSI — which is also turned bullish. Combined with the general trend for the week being upward, the evidence at face value favors the bulls going into Saturday.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows that the volatility at these levels may somewhat be explained by the declining long-term resistance being very close to the current price.  This price action just below at the 100 and 50 WMA cross, while being supported by the 200 WMA, is very similar to that which occurred in 2015.

This took several months to resolve and ultimately led to a test of the declining 50WMA, which is currently declining from $6,000. It took 10 further weeks to test the 50 WMA following the cross under similar circumstances in 2015, which would take us to the end of April and somewhere in the $5,000 range.  This test back in 2015 led to the 200 WMA being backchecked so, should this occur again, we would have clear battle lines drawn.

The bearish case is that Bitcoin has failed to break this resistance for 12 months, so what would lead us to conclude that this time it may be different?

Bulls Target $5K

In a TradingView post, I put forward the idea that a $5k Bitcoin price may be possible and that the main reasons behind this are that there are such a large number of bullish underlying indicators to support this notion, namely being the MAC-D, the CMF, Fibonacci levels, and the fact that we have made higher lows across a number of months.

bitcoin price

Only time will tell if this prediction will play out and it is a prediction against the grain of a 14-month bear market, so it should be treated with caution.  A low beyond $3400 and a lower low / break in market structure would certainly imply that the bears are still in command after a short period of hibernation.

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The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Knocking at BTC’s $4000 Door

bitcoin price

Bitcoin made a 5 percent move higher yesterday up to $3877, which — as mentioned on Monday — was necessary to signal that the bulls would take the market back towards $4000. We take a deeper dive into the action to see if can keep up the momentum. 


Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin appears to have found support at the 50 and 100 daily moving average, with a single candle taking out the weekly opening at $3791. The Bulls will now look to establish support above this level in an attempt to gather their legs before another attempt at breaking $4000.

The daily MAC-D is still trending above zero and is looking to cross bullish, while the stochastic RSI has already crossed bullish and implies that another leg higher may be in the works.

The 200-day moving average is declining rapidly from $5000 and will likely act as resistance if Bitcoin can make a break to the upside. The last time it was tested as resistance was the key levels of $10,000 and $8,500, which resulted in continued downside for the flagship crypto asset, so it is certainly a level for the bulls to keep a close eye on.

4 Hour Chart

The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has established a weekly low of $3672 — which is at the 61.8 percent retracement of the move which saw Bitcoin reject the $3300 range and retest $4000.

The MAC-D has crossed zero but implies that the bulls are running out of momentum, which is also displayed in the Stochastic RSI.

It seems likely that there will need to be a retest of the weekly opening at $3790, which if support can be found, the next lower time frame objective for the bulls will be to take out last week’s highs of $3900.

30 Minute Chart

Looking closer at the 30-minute chart, a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move on Tuesday provides the bulls with a $4,000 target — which is a logical place to see some profit taking before any attempt to knock at the door of the $4100-$4200 range, which has provided sterling support for the bears.

As we found at $6000, the more times that the bears knocked at the door, the weaker the door became. It is quite possible that this will ultimately be the case for $4,000, while there is now a multi-month rising support level at the 200-week moving average.

Weekly Chart

Taking a quick peek at the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin is right at the diagonal resistance level which it has faced for 12 months and is supported by a bullish cross on the MAC-D — despite still being below zero.

All of the signs are that Bitcoin does want to try to move higher towards the 200 DMA and ultimately break the $4,000 range; however, it is important to note that Bitcoin is still within a brutal bear market and even highs above $5000 would not suffice to indicate a macro shift in the momentum of the market. The declining weekly resistance could still prove too much for the bulls.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis – A Grizzly Start to the Week

bitcoin price bear

Bitcoin price closed the week up 1.5% at $3789, despite the green candle close, the bears have taken control in the early hours of Monday morning, pushing Bitcoin price back into the $3600 range.  We take a look at what this means for the week ahead.


BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSIS: WEEKLY CHART

The weekly chart for bitcoin shows Bitcoin price 00 continuing to be locked within the trading range of $4100 and $3200, with only a few hours of trading $100 either side, for 15 weeks now.

For the bulls, there are relatively positive signs in the weekly chart with bitcoin price printing higher lows and making an attempt at higher highs.

The MAC-d is also crossed bullish with its signal line, and the histogram printing a higher high last week.  The mac-d itself is still below zero but is trending upwards.

Looking further at the Mac-d, not only is the mac-d crossed bullish, but it has built a double bullish divergence across a 12 month period. This is an unusual event, which as only occurred previously in March 2015.  The key thing traders will look for is if the histogram can remain positive over the next weeks.

The early rejection of the $3800 range on Monday would imply that BTC price will want to trade in this range for the next few days at least.

DAILY CHART

The daily chart shows that there is a cluster of support, which lies below for Bitcoin. The 100 and 50 DMA stand at around the 61.8% retracement level, with the 78.6% resting just above the $3500 handle, beneath which is the fast-rising 200-week moving average.

The Daily Mac-d is crossed bearish and implies that there is more downside to be expected. The CMF, which incorporates both price and volume, shows that there is continued underlying buying pressure, but it has also been trending down since mid-February.

Should Bitcoin price find support early in the week and subsequently trade above $3800 again, it would be a bullish sign and could imply the door would be reopened to re-testing $4200.

Overall there is a mixed picture for Bitcoin price action:– lower timeframes suggest downside risk lies ahead, but on a macro level Bitcoin there are signs that Bitcoin does want to move higher if the bears fail to break 3k with conviction during March, which will be a critical month.

Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies on online Bitcoin forex broker platform evolve.markets.  

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Look to Retest $4200 Into the Monthly Close

bitcoin price

Bitcoin price is set to end a 6-month red candle losing streak today if the bulls can maintain a price above $3420. After a sharp $150 (4%) decline and subsequent sharp reversal, we take a look at the charts to try and get the lay of the land before the close.


MONTHLY CHART

Bitcoin price 00 opened the month at $3360 and managed to reach towards $4200 last week before suffering a setback on Sunday where the bears managed to take control while the bulls were taking profits and pushed BTC price back towards $3700.

The monthly chart shows that the bulls have managed to control the price action for the month, with there being more demand than supply in the low $3000s where the 50-week moving average lies as initial support, as it did during January 2015 after the 85% decline.

The MAC-D, which is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA, is still trending down and has some way to go before crossing above the signal (9-day EMA) and baselines to indicate that there is a longer-term shift in the market.

However, there is the first sign of the MAC-D histogram printing indicating declining bearish momentum. The histogram serves to show the distance between the MAC-D and the signal line and as such, when it is in decline, it illustrates that there is some movement towards a bullish cross of the two.

Although this is a good sign, there is some way to go.

DAILY CHART

The daily chart shows a conflicting picture. The drop from $4200 has been supported, initially by the 100-day moving average and following an aggressive dump overnight to $3658, quickly reversed off the 61.8% retracement, forming a pin bar reversal candle on the daily, which is bullish.

Having said that, the MAC-d has crossed its signal line bearish (but above the baseline) and there is some minor bearish divergence on the CMF.

The combination of these two technical aspects has traders at odds more so than usual as to the direction of travel expected.

4-HOUR CHARTS

Looking at the order flow charts as provided by Tensor Charts, we are able to visualize where there may be areas of support or resistance based on volume density and size of orders for a given price range.

As illustrated by the colored blocks, we can see that at Bitstamp, there is a cluster of support below the current price of $3819, which will serve to somewhat support the bullish case.

But the darker yellow areas above price illustrate that there are large sell orders already placed around $4050, which will serve as some resistance and will require strong bullish momentum at the top of the move to break through.

We can see how this occurred last time the bulls knocked at the door of $3700 and $4000 and subsequently became a block too far for the bulls at $4200.

The chart also serves to illustrate that Bids within 10 percent of the price range, exceed those of the Asks, which at face value, would indicate that there is more buying interest than selling interest at these prices.

It is likely that there will be a bullish or bearish move as we move into the Monthly candle close and the current bulls vs. bears battle will be settled before the end of the week.

Trade Bitcoin, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies on online Bitcoin forex broker platform evolve.markets.  

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView.

The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.  For disclosure, the writer holds Bitcoin at the time of writing.


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Cryptocurrencies Get ‘Santa Rally’ To the Envy of the Stock Market

santa rally bitcoin price cryptocurrency

As the final week before Christmas comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market closes out a well needed ‘Santa Rally’ to the envy of the traditional markets, we take a closer look at what happened with the top cryptos and if an end is in sight to the twelve-month bear market.


Christmas Santa Rally for Crypto

The total cryptocurrency market cap managed to find support around the $100bn valuation level last week and rallied hard to close up around 30% at $130bn with a large bullish engulfing candle and a noticeable uptick in volume. A move of such positive magnitude has not been seen since the first week of April 2018 and it certainly feels a like long time in the cryptocurrency world.

Moving into the early hours of Monday morning, the market did not let up steam and pushed ahead with another 10% towards $143bn.  While this goes some way towards signaling that buyers are returning to the market and that demand at these prices may outweigh supply, there is a significant amount of work to be done before we can say with conviction that this market – which has suffered staggering losses of $650bn (87%) – has bottomed.

Christmas Eve gains across the board

Each of the top cryptocurrencies saw significant gains, with XRP 00 being the biggest mover over 20%. Notable gains were seen across the board, with six of the top ten coins making double-digit gains and tether falling as people ditched the USD equivalent for the soaring cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

After finding its legs just north of $3k, the market leader, Bitcoin, has found some resistance around the 23.6% retracement level at $4k. But it convincingly broke out of this overnight and is now eyeing $4.4k, which is where significant resistance was previously found after a bounce following the initial test of the mid $3ks.

This has a high probability of proving to be a significant level of resistance with a backtest of $4k, which must now turn from previous resistance to support.

For this market to show real signs of interim bullishness, however, Bitcoin price really needs to see a convincing attempt to break $4.5k on the first try.  Should BTC be able to consolidate around this level, the bulls will be eyeing just north of $5.2k at the 61.8% retracement of the fall from $6.5k where there will be significant profit taking and short interest.

While Bitcoin and many of the other cryptos have has managed to provide some relief for investors and savvy dip buyers, this market has a lot of work to do to become bullish.

The high probability is that Bitcoin will struggle to retake the $6k and will need to spend some time holding and building a base above $3k. There is also still a week to go for some investors to crystallize losses and recognize them on their tax returns, which may still have a downward effect on the market.

So while the much needed ‘Santa rally’ has brought some Christmas cheer to the crypto markets, traders will be looking for signs of strength, with all of the coins needing to find higher highs and proving resistance at each of the key Fibonacci levels can turn to support with at the first time of asking.

Does Bitcoin price suggest it is now a buyers market? Where is the bottom? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView.


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Are Bulls Being Led to Slaughter?

Bitcoin price analysis bulls

Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) had a dire week, breaking down last Wednesday from its 2018 consolidation reaching weekly lows of $5200. 


This week started no better with new lows being found after a further selloff at around $5050. Here we take a look at some of the immediate levels trades and investors alike worth paying attention to.

Bitcoin Price: Daily Chart

Bitcoin‘s resilience sustaining prices around $5500, gave up on Monday as the wider trading environment kicked off the week, with markets pushing BTC price 00 down to test $5000.

As the market attempts to adjust to the breakdown, many are trying to work out where the bottom may be. Here we look at a few of the scenarios being contemplated by investors and traders alike.

Weekly Chart

The lows of August – 2015 August 2017 uptrend converges with the lows of the 2018 downtrend around $4400-4800.  There is a distinct lack of historically traded volume between $4800 and $5500, which may explain why the market is currently falling through the current price range with minimal resistance.

Traders may look to this price range for a bounce, marking a 75% discount from December 2017 prices and a psychological level for both buyers and short covering.

A break and close above previous support at $6,100 would signify some confirmation of a longer term bottom.

2015 Bottom

The 2015 bottom was found at the top of the 2012-2013 trend.  If the same is applied to 2019 it again suggests $4800 region may be a significant level of support.

The most bullish scenario that can be presented is that this down move is being induced by a large player tempting sell volume to the market, which was lacking around $6,000, in an attempt to make a large, longer-term buy and hold position.

This kind of trading is known as a fake out trap to run stops and create liquidity to build such a large opposing position, but it really the only hope short-term players have in this market resuming an uptrend.

$3k – A Comparison to 2015

Looking at 2015 the bottom was found resting alongside the 200MA, currently trending towards $3200, which is where the bottom of the volume range currently resides.

This level is where the market last witnessed significant volume, bouncing the market back to $4350 within two weeks.

It is likely that a number of market participants who took profits from above this level, or from those that sold here historically and had to endure the run up to 20k will happily re-enter the market on an 85% retracement

Bitcoin Cash Hashing War

Hashing power has been diverted from the BTC network to provide support to the Bitcoin Cash ‘hash war,’ which goes some way to undermine the network security for Bitcoin.

Game theory in Economics and as applied here, works on the basis that individuals are incentivized with their resources to do what is best for themselves and the group, which in this case would be to mine the more profitable Bitcoin chain, however, there is currently an uneconomical war being conducted meaning that the marginal profitability from mining is being ignored in the quest for dominance over the BCH network.

It’s unclear how this war of attrition using SHA 256 resources is directly impacting Bitcoin price 00, but it would be reasonable to assume that it is not positive to the outsiders looking in and until there is liquidity to dump the opposing chains coins, they will need to use their Bitcoin to provide working capital to cover the marginal cost of production.

The probable outcome is that the losing miners will revert their hash and capital back to the BTC network once a winner has been found.

In Summary, Bitcoin 00 looks likely to continue its downward momentum from here, testing the low volume price ranges, with the closest one closing around $4800, however, the strength of the hands of the Hodlers will be tested.

A large engulfing candle supported by significant volume is the only thing which the bulls want to order from the menu, but where that will occur remains to be seen.

Does Bitcoin price suggest it is now a buyers market? Where is the bottom? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView. Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Comprehensive Review of The Weekly Chart

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Makes a Move Amid Uncertain Two-Weeks

The Cryptocurrency market closed on a high last week with all major cryptos finishing the week on a relative high.  A reasonably strong close for the first week of November has many analysts once again facing the question if the bottom is in. 


Here we take a look specifically at the market leader, Bitcoin (BTC) 00, to see if an end is in sight for the bear market. Not to mention what we need to be looking for, focusing specifically on the most traditional indicators — price, moving averages and what is commonly overlooked but is arguably the most important indicator for many, volume.

We have exhausted looking at descending wedges, triangles and redrawn levels of support time over, so I will specifically not cover that here – please review my previous work.

Weekly Chart

Assuming Bitcoin remains above $5780 for the remainder of this week, Bitcoin will have traded above $5800 for a full 12 months.  This comes at a time where price action continues to reach for all time volatility lows as shown by the Bollinger bands width hitting lows not seen since times where significant volatility has followed.

The weekly candle closed on the smallest of a bullish green hammer, with the close being a mere $20 higher than the start of the week.

Moving Averages

The moving averages on the chart illustrate that Bitcoin was supported by the 50-week moving average when tested during late March when Bitcoin was trading at $6500.

The 50 failed in May and then critically acted as resistance at $8500 during July which nailed Bitcoin down to another three months between the yearly support and the 50 MA.

The 100-week moving average is fast approaching Bitcoins current prices, which is hardly surprising given the length of time and Bitcoin has traded above current prices, sometimes significantly.  It would be reasonable to assume that the 100-week MA will act as support should it be tested within its critical support zone i.e there is a convergence of support at this price range.

The 200 MA is some way below at around $3000 and would act as a last line of defense as occurred spectacularly some 15 months ago in the rapid fall from $5000.

From a technical standpoint, traders will look to a break the 50-week MA cleanly with a volume kicker to indicate that the bulls are back in business.  This currently looks a tall order for the bulls, but they will be comforted by the convergence of support and the length of time it has remained — along with the fact that below $5800 are multi-levels of psychological support.

Volume

It is clear to see that Bitcoin trading volume has been trending down since the climatic selling in February.  This steady decline will be in part due to market participants awaiting a catalytic event before entering the market. Volume is considered to be a leading indicator in price action, so traders will look to a large increase above the trend to indicate accumulation and big players leaving their mark on the chart in either a bullish or bearish sentiment.  We can see that Bitcoin is still awaiting such an event at this time.

Other volume indicators can be used to identify underlying volume related signals in the market.

The indicator Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows buying and selling pressure by combining price and volume into one metric where values trending higher above zero are considered to be bullish. Bitcoin is trending above zero and is clearly trending up following an extended rounding bottom.  This has been the case since July and looks to be continuing its attempt to resolve above 0.2 having broken upward last week.

Similarly, the indicator On Balance Volume (OBV) again combines volume and price.  It works to add or subtract volume on the basis of price closes being greater or lower than the previous period.  This is another indicator which can show hidden accumulation in the market which can be less apparent when looking at price alone.  Here we can see the OBV is clearly compressing upwards and it suggest that smart money is leaving its accumulation mark behind for those knowing where to look.

Swing High, Swing Low

There are really only two price levels worth mentioning at the moment namely $6850 and $5750.

Above and below these levels will be stop positions which will act as triggers to close out losing trades for bears or bulls, while triggering traders looking for indicators to enter the market to participate.  This is likely to create a cascading effect which will lead to a more significant move should either of these two key levels be taken out.

I personally look to $6800 as being critical and as I’ve said many times “6800 – always resistance, never support” which has been the case all year.

Finding support at this level would be a real indicator for me that changes are afoot.  Indeed Mike Novogratz shares my view that this is indeed the key level to watch after such a long period of sideways action.

So as we dig deeper into the final quarter of the year, the outcome remains unknown, but what we do know is that it would not take much to get this market moving and this will prove too much for some big players to ignore.

This was purely a TA review and intentionally did not consider the fundamentals coming towards the year-end, which may act as a catalyst. Traders will no doubt have their ducks in a row long in advance of any big news that may tip this market forwards.

There are signs of a bottom, but there is nothing definitively evident in the charts that tell us where we go next.  The long wait continues.

When will the real volatility come? What will be the spark that reignites the crypto market? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView. Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock.

The post Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Comprehensive Review of The Weekly Chart appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin Finally Makes A Move

Bitcoin price

As Bitcoin (BTC) closes out the week and moves towards the end of October, we take a look at what’s going on with price action in what has been an anticlimactic month.


4 Hour Chart

Bitcoin had been firmly locked in a single trading range for over two weeks, with lows of $6450 and highs of $6490.

This morning, we finally broke out of this range with the bears taking us back to $6200, from where the original break to the upside occurred, completing another so-called ‘Bart’ style reversal.  This reversal, although finally breaking a two-week consolidation, is a modest drop back to retest support from which price quickly bounced around $100  back to $6300.

This range is largely a continuation of that found amidst uncertainty in the market around Tether (USDT) and Bitfinex.  The Bitfinex risk premium is slowly evaporating from highs of 15 percent down to 1.5 percent as calm is restored and traders take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.

Meanwhile, the stock market continues to wobble and as the 2018 long term diagonal resistance fast approaches.

The phrase “a move is coming” has become somewhat of a meme amongst traders as nothing continues to happen; at a time where volatility is expected to peak, it’s in fact continuing to reach for all-time lows.  While this $200 move to the downside shows a much-needed increase in volatility for traders, it is not ‘the’ move which the market is waiting for, although it could be a catalyst for a bigger move.

1 Day Chart

Bollinger Bands can be used to measure price volatility of an asset.  The bands are calculated around a 20 period moving average, with the outer bands usually being set 2 standard deviations above and below the middle band.

The daily chart is showing the Bollinger bands tighten meaning Bitcoin is hitting the lowest period of volatility since the price was around $750. As the bands tighten, the probability of a move increases; ‘contraction leads to expansion,’ hence why traders are patiently waiting, not wanting to be caught on the wrong side of a large volatile move.

Traders are looking for an indication as to where Bitcoin wants to travel before entering the market. This indication will come in the form of a clean break out which closes above $7400, or a break below $5800, accompanied by a volume spike. Those more prudent will await for several candles confirming the direction, or a successful retest of the breakout. This ‘wait and see’ capital will ultimately enter the market and along with stop and liquidation entries, result in a fast move.

Weekly and Monthly chart

Both the weekly and monthly charts are showing price action flattening out. The weekly chart shows the smallest of doji indecision candles, with last week highs of $6473 and lows of $6354. The early test of support in the week will set the tone as we head towards the mid-week monthly close out.

The Monthly picture shows that the bears are still in control in this market and without a break above $6600, will mark a third consecutive month of price decline.  Although the bears are successfully pushing the price down, the bulls are responding by keeping the price in the mid $6ks.

Bitcoin has also reached a pinch point with both is down trend of 2018 meeting the uptrend of 2016-17 as I point out on Twitter. The ‘return to the mean’ line following a parabolic advance now stands around $5k which is the target for many bears.

All of this is happening ahead of the awaited Bakkt futures launch in December which settles with physical settlement and amidst bullish fundamentals for on ramps and bearish fundamental indicators around Bitcoin Money Velocity.

What Bakkt will do to price remains to be seen but its not beyond the realms of possibility that some participants are awaiting this product to enter the market.

When will the real volatility come? What will be the spark that reignites the crypto market? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.


[Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

To get receive updates for the writer you can follow on Twitter (@filbfilb) and TradingView. Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock.

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