The past 24 hours were profitable for traders as Bitcoin launched from $32,000 to deliver 4% gains that were holding above $33,800 at the time of writing.
For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, it was necessary for the strength to continue and for $32,500 to hold in the event of a retracement.
"Bitcoin breaks through that resistance at $32.5-$32.7K. Holding that for support = likely continuation towards $36K," he forecast in a Twitter update.
"Overall, the next resistance at $34.5K is possibly being reached during the weekend."
Such behavior would not be at all surprising given the wide trading range in which BTC/USD is currently acting — $42,000, the point of all-time highs from February, remains the range ceiling and line in the sand for a definitive bull market continuation.
Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile highlighted ongoing changes with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a sign of longer-timeframe bullishness returning.
Last week, #BTC broke down from the triangular market structure that was formed by the 21-week EMA resistance & the 50-week EMA support
Today, $BTC is just above the 50 EMA, trying to reclaim it as support
A slew of announcements this month, including one mining firm planning to go public in the U.S., combines with news that the industry’s environmental credentials are changing rapidly.
“We’re also seeing a lot more disclosure from miners – 32% of the hash rate joined a council, Bitcoin Mining Council, and they produce quarterly disclosures now, and within that sample, the miners were 67% renewable or nuclear powered,” Nic Carter, co-founder of CoinShares, told CNBC Wednesday.
“So the miners that are disclosing — and a lot of these are western miners that are exposed to western capital markets — are disproportionately sustainable in their operations.”
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, hinted that Tesla may begin accepting Bitcoin for payments again in the coming months based on these environmental changes.
Ranging continues for BTC/USD but conditions may be right for a late surge to range highs above $40,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) circled $32,000 on July 22 after excitement over fresh comments by Elon Musk resulted in strengthening of support.
BTC bulls regroup at $32,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ranging between $31,500 and $32,000 overnight on Wednesday, hours after Musk joined others in praising Bitcoin during a conference panel.
As Cointelegraph reported, Musk's words came over broadly positive and less critical than many had assumed they would be — this in turn led to a brief price surge which topped out above $32,800.
Thereafter, familiar resistance kicked in and $32,400 once more became the level to flip, a feat which Bitcoin has yet to achieve.
Nonetheless, previous gains from below $30,000 remained intact, and there was equally little evidence of a major retracement about to kick in on Thursday.
"If we look at the price action of Bitcoin, we can clearly see and state that we're holding above $31K," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe said.
"If that sustains, and the market grants a higher low, I think we've found a temporary bottom & we'll test $40K."
Independent analyst and trader Keith Wareing was neutral about the Musk episode. He argued that since no resistance levels had truly cracked, nothing had fundamentally changed in the short-term BTC price landscape.
Elon pump (yay)
Rejected bang on, literally bang fucking on the handle (booo)
But TA is a load of bullshit so it means nothing right?
As such, buy and sell positions among traders likewise continued their trend from earlier in the week – with the addition of $33,000 slowly forming a resistance zone and support conversely stepping in at $31,000.
Van de Poppe: Altcoins would boom if Bitcoin takes off
Altcoins likewise cemented gains which commonly ranged between five and ten percent on the day.
Even if unlocking events were able to directly spark Bitcoin sell-offs, the worst is easily over, data shows.
Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding despite the ongoing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) unlocking events — and most shares are already released.
According to data from tracking resource Bybt, the remaining unlockings combined involve fewer shares than those which were released on just one day last weekend.
Putting an end to GBTC "FUD"
July 18 saw around 16,240 BTC worth of GBTC shares end their six-month lock-up period. The largest such release in a single day, the event saw a hefty build-up, with arguments raging over its likely impact on the Bitcoin price.
Monday's BTC price dip was timely when it came to GBTC, fitting a narrative that a sell-off would follow such large releases.
Even if that were true, Bitcoin hodlers now have a silver lining — unlockings are only scheduled until August 25, and the outstanding shares are fewer in number than Sunday's tranche.
In reality, however, supporting evidence for unlockings resulting in sell-offs is lacking. As various sources stress, Bitcoin markets themselves are in fact left out of such events altogether — GBTC shares cannot be redeemed for BTC, which could then theoretically be dumped for cash or stablecoins.
"Grayscale just had the biggest GBTC unlock today and nothing exploded," popular Twitter commentator Lark Davis wrote on Monday, citing the Bybt figures.
"One more big unlock on the 20th and then the whole GBTC crashing bitcoin narrative will be over. What FUD will they come out with next?"
That "FUD" had nonetheless infiltrated some of the best-known names in finance, including banking giant JPMorgan.
"Selling of GBTC shares exiting the six-month lockup period during June and July has emerged as an additional headwind for bitcoin," a report claimed earlier this month.
CEO confident over GBTC performance
As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, interest in GBTC and Grayscale's other products remains.
Both Rothschild Investment Corp and ARK Invest have added to their holdings in July, the latter boosting its Bitcoin exposure by an additional 310,000 shares.
"GBTC's doing hundreds of millions of dollars a day in notional trading volume, and it really is the easiest way for many investors to add crypto exposure alongside stocks, bonds, ETFs, other things they may own," Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein told Bloomberg Monday.
A survey of institutions by asset manager Fidelity likewise revealed positive long-term approaches to cryptocurrency, with 71% of responses planning a market entry in the future.
After breaking through $30,000 support, concerns swiftly mounted that Bitcoin would surpass even its May lows and continue towards $24,000 or lower.
These ultimately did not come to pass, thanks to, as Cointelegraph reported, the "biggest bid ever" keeping bears working.
With that, BTC/USD was back above $30,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, but whether or not the bottom is in was a major topic of discussion.
For Cointelegraph analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the fact that Bitcoin had not matched its May levels left the door open for a restest. More broadly, behavior both then and now conformed to a trading pattern which had not yet broken down.
"Bitcoin is still acting inside this range of wicks," he summarized before the rebound.
"Didn't take liquidity fully as there are still some wicks to take the liquidity from. However, the daily candle on Ethereum is interesting, as that one is in support. Let's see whether we lose this and reach $26K next."
He added that Bitcoin was "insanely cheap" at sub-$30,000 levels.
Fellow trader Crypto Ed shared his sense of foreboding, arguing that it was not yet time for a true recovery.
#BTC EW labelling was spot on so far. Need to see how this bounce unfolds but should be a corrective bounce before more doom. Always expect the unexpected so we determined levels where this is invalidated and we turn bull. Just not yet. pic.twitter.com/RnhlPidjb4
Orderbook data showed resistance building at $31,000 on the day, placing a hurdle in the way of bulls who had propelled the market 5.5% higher to a local top of $30,900. Support at $29,000 and under, despite its prior test, remained in place.
Altcoins stage strong comeback
Altcoins welcomed the relief rally in Bitcoin, Van de Poppe's curiosity over Ether (ETH) well founded as it gained nearly 6% in hours.
BTC is back at square one when it comes to this year's bull market, but unparalleled bids are doing their best to halt any further losses.
Bitcoin (BTC) breaking below $30,000 has cost it almost all of its 2021 bull run gains — but a historic silver lining is ready to rescue bulls.
Data from crypto exchange Binance's order book confirms that BTC/USD has almost dipped to the strongest support zone ever seen.
BTC price arrives at "biggest bid ever"
It has been a rough 24 hours for Bitcoin hodlers, and the rout doesn't seem to be over yet. After losing 6% overnight, BTC/USD hit lows of $29,300 — $300 below where it opened at the start of the year.
With that, despite reaching lofty highs of $64,500 just three months ago, Bitcoin is de facto back where it started before the most intense phase of its latest bull run kicked in.
Those who fear that all is lost — at least for the short term — may be happy to discover that that same level currently hosts the biggest Bitcoin "bid" ever seen.
As revealed on July 20 by "Material Scientist," the creator of monitoring resource Material Indicators, BTC/USD is now being propped up by unprecedented demand.
"We just hit the largest bid ever," Material Scientist summarized.
"Would take some massive FUD to break it. So, I think upside is more likely."
The idea of Bitcoin breaking below current levels is, nevertheless, far from fantasy for traders, with predictions of $24,000 or even a $14,000 "Armageddon scenario" circulating online.
Additional order book data from Binance shows relatively little resistance between the spot price and $35,000, something that could make a rebound easier to engineer.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin circled $29,700 as relative stability returned to the market.
"Parabolic" smaller hodlers feast
Meanwhile, the latest figures covering investor activity around Bitcoin have produced some surprising results.
As noted by statistician Willy Woo on July 20, it is now the smaller hodlers who are amassing BTC, even as the largest whales divest themselves of their holdings.
"Wee little fishies are going parabolic," he commented.
"This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales). PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs."
Rothschild Investment Corp has bought more Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure via Grayscale despite the ongoing crypto market retreat.
Billion-dollar investment firm Rothschild Investment Corp quadrupled its exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) since April, new records show.
In a filing with the United States' Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on July 17, Rothschild confirmed that it now owns 141,405 shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Rothschild GBTC shares near 150,000
A quiet but nonetheless substantial player among institutions, Rothchild Investment Corp has also invested in Grayscale's Ether (ETH) equivalent, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.
Its exposure to Bitcoin has increased considerably this year, the filing shows — in April, its GBTC shares totaled 38,346.
In BTC terms, with each GBTC share equal to 0.000939767 BTC, Rothschild thus has an equivalent Bitcoin exposure of 132.8 BTC ($3.94 million).
The data implies that declining prices have not fazed executives, Bitcoin maintaining a drawdown for three months after hitting its all-time highs of $64,500 in mid May.
As Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein noted this week, institutional players are likely taking little notice of short-term price moves, instead concentrating on a much lower-time-preference strategy when it comes to cryptocurrency.
"Investors in this asset class are really not focused on... short-term movements in price," he told CNBC.
"These are really investors looking at their allocations in the medium to long term, and so any volatility or dampening of volatility is not something anyone is fazed by."
On Monday, ARK Invest purchased a reported 310,000 GBTC shares of its own, bringing its combined holdings to 8.81 million or 0.5% of its portfolio. At its peak, GBTC represented 0.9% of the ARK portfolio in late March.
Good timing for Grayscale FUD?
As Cointelegraph reported, Grayscale is at the center of discussions this week as it unlocked over 16,000 BTC worth of GBTC shares on Sunday.
The largest cryptocurrency saw a turbulent night's price action, abruptly adding to existing losses to seal 24-hour negative returns of -6%.
The move came in tandem with a souring sentiment on traditional markets. The Fear & Greed Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the mood among market participants, fell into the "extreme fear" zone on Tuesday, measuring 17/100.
At the same time, the cryptocurrency equivalent, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, raced to catch up, dropping to 19/100 — also denoted as "extreme fear."
Crypto Fear & Greed saw local lows of just 10/100 last month, while the traditional counterpart's score has halved in a week.
Perhaps predictably, traders were more than cautious.
"Rejects $32.3K, Rejects $31K, and now at the next support zone," Cointelegraph's Michaël van de Poppe warned.
"No real run of volume yet, through which the liquidity tap should still happen or we'll see a test at $24K for Bitcoin."
On Monday, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital had summed up the grim picture on spot markets, concluding that downside was more likely to prevail. In the event, BTC/USD fell almost exactly to his target zone.
"BTC has lost Weekly support (black) and convincingly lost the blue 50-week EMA," he summarized on Twitter alongside the relevant chart.
"BTC has failed to preserve the bullish momentum that originated in the green box. In fact, sell-side pressure may mount on BTC and may force a return to the green area soon."
Altcoins double daily losses
A look at buy and sell positions on major exchange Binance meanwhile showed support remaining in place between $27,000 and $29,000 despite the price dip.
Coming a day after Bitcoin's lowest weekly close since December 2020, the price action underscored the sensitivity of a market with low volume and network fundamentals still in their recovery phase.
Traders had broadly predicted a move downward after Bitcoin had failed to hold on to support levels higher up, with the integrity of $30,000 itself being called into question.
“Volatility, finally for Bitcoin,” in-house trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe summarized.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD circled $30,700 with daily losses at around 3%. A glance at buy and sell orders on major exchange Binance showed considerable demand remaining at $27,000 and upward, reducing the likelihood of a deeper dive beyond that area.
Among market participants, it was all about catching the likely price bottom.
Not saying this is the bottom.
I'm just saying the PA always looks horrible at the bottom, and that the bottom is only too obvious when it's too late to catch it.
Ether (ETH) shed nearly 8% on the day to hit $1,800 support, highlighting a fragile altcoin environment still at the mercy of Bitcoin sentiment.
A possible overall explanation lay at the door of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which on Sunday completed a 16,000-BTC unlocking event, which only a day later could have an opportunity to impact the market.
Today, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein told CNBC in an interview that the regulatory discussion on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is entering its ‘’final stages’’ and that the company is committed to turning GBTC into such a product.
Bitcoin is just a “couple of points of maturation” away from getting an approved ETF in the U.S., says Grayscale CEO.
The head of crypto investment giant Grayscale believes that only a “couple of maturation points” separate the United States from its first Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Speaking to CNBC on July 19, Michael Sonnenshein reiterated that a U.S. ETF is a matter of “not ‘if,’ but ‘when.’”
Sonnenshein: “If, not when” for U.S. Bitcoin ETF
Regulators currently have 13 ETF applications under consideration, and the U.S. lags behind neighboring Canada when it comes to giving them the green light.
Years of applications and rejections have gone by, and some believe that an ETF would ultimately create bearish price pressure for Bitcoin in the long term.
Nonetheless, Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein says the firm is “100% committed” to transforming its Bitcoin product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), to ETFs once conditions are right.
“I think in our seat, from our view of the world, we’re really looking for a couple of different points of maturation in the underlying market, and that’s really the final stages of what we think regulators need to approve those types of products and give investors the protections that they’re looking for,” he told the network.
Last week, Grayscale announced a partnership with U.S. banking giant BNY Mellon, which will now provide services for GBTC when it undergoes its metamorphosis.
GBTC is already in the headlines in crypto circles over its unlocking events, the largest of which occurred Sunday, with opinions mixed over their potential price impact.
Not all quiet on the western front
Institutional advances continue to surface this month despite low volumes and overall lack of direction on the market.
Bitcoin continues its recovery from the China mining debacle but price action remains delicate in a low-volume market.
Bitcoin (BTC) emerges into a new week with middling price action and optimistic fundamentals — what could the coming days have in store?
Still holding $30,000 support, there’s little about Bitcoin to truly excite traders, but volatility has already reminded them of its presence over the past week.
As a recovery in mining continues, everyone is playing a game of “wait and see” when it comes to the 2021 Bitcoin bull market.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five things that might give BTC price action some direction in the short term.
Dollar sees strength as stocks calm advance
It’s a classic summer picture in equities — a slight comedown last week followed all but constant gains, with caution coming from Covid-19, inflation and other triggers.
This time of year, however, is renowned for its lack of action, and even recent changes amount to little on a wider scale.
“The Covid backdrop is just one of several factors that may be adversely impacting the reflation trade,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg.
The U.S. dollar gained some strength from the modest shake-up in stocks, with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) climbing toward 93.
As Cointelegraph reported, DXY’s inverse correlation to Bitcoin remains in the spotlight for some — a short-term peak for the index may correspond to price pressure for BTC/USD.
Another focus is oil on the back of a lessening of tensions among OPEC+ members and a fresh agreement to boost output. While traditionally less impactful on Bitcoin behavior, any unexpected volatility can provide fuel for a low-volume cryptocurrency market.
This was witnessed last week, as reports of Bank of America greenlighting Bitcoin futures trading for select clients swiftly sent BTC/USD $1,000 higher.
Actions by another bank, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, may be more important this week. A working group on stablecoins will get the attention of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen when it is convened with the goal of "intra-agency work."
Weekly candle raises risk of $29,000 drop
On spot markets, Monday began with hope for the future rather than confidence in current price events.
The weekend saw seesawing from BTC/USD, still unable to beat resistance at $32,000 or higher but likewise apt to avoid tests of $31,000 support.
At the time of writing, $31,750 formed a focus on lower timeframes, with ranging firmly the defining feature of the hourly chart.
“It's time for a green week for Bitcoin,” popular trader Michaël van de Poppe ventured.
Talk of if and when a Bitcoin price bottom could occur remains a major talking point. As Cointelegraph noted on Sunday, the drawdown from the most recent all-time high of $64,500 has now lasted for three months — the second-longest ever within a bull cycle.
With popular opinion favoring a return below $30,000, Van de Poppe argued that a bottom may not be as dramatic as expectations demand.
“A bottom usually doesn't look great, as the majority of the people are expecting further downwards movements of the markets,” he told Twitter followers.
“A bad weekly candle doesn't have to mean prices are going to fall further.”
That candle did indeed disappoint, with Sunday’s weekly close on BTC/USD being its lowest of 2021 so far.
For trader and analyst Rekt Capital, an ability to reclaim $32,000 is a problem in itself, opening up the path to levels around $29,000.
“Bitcoin is threatening to lose its Weekly support (~$32000). Today is the last day for $BTC to reclaim this support,” he warned Sunday alongside an accompanying chart.
“Lose it and there is little higher timeframe support to stop BTC from another revisit of the green area.”
Difficulty beats expectations
In contrast to price, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals continue their march back to strength after the unprecedented events of May and June.
The network hash rate, still holding up above its local low of 83 exahashes per second (EH/s), has not seen any further major setbacks as miners relocate away from China.
The real signs of progress, however, come from difficulty.
This weekend’s automated readjustment saw difficulty dip by a modest 4.8% — a pleasing contrast from prior estimates. Two weeks beforehand, difficulty was forecast to decrease more than ever — by almost 29% — which slowly improved through the two-week difficulty cycle.
Now, Bitcoin is on track to have its first positive readjustment since before the May price crash.
The changes speak to Bitcoin’s unflinching ability to monitor itself and incentivize miners back to the network while continuing to process transactions unhindered.
As such, commentators believe that the worst of the recent upheaval is firmly in the past.
“The hangover of a difficulty adjustment downwards from the China crackdowns should conclude after this adjustment,” Kevin Zhang, vice-president of Digital Currency Group mining advisory subsidiary Foundry Services, said at the weekend.
“Expecting to see the hashrate and difficulty to slowly recover from here.”
Meanwhile, both hash rate and difficulty have dipped below their levels at the May 2020 block subsidy halving.
Funding rates stay cool
On-chain indicators are anything but bearish, but it’s the sustained nuanced signals, which are on the radar this week.
Specifically, funding rates across exchanges have remained neutral or lightly negative throughout the recent price volatility — a hopeful insight into traders’ mindset.
As Cointelegraph reported, large whales appear alone in being apt to sell at current levels, with other investor profiles conversely buying up the supply.
In terms of volume, however, a $30,000 Bitcoin is predictably uninteresting. Both futures and PayPal volumes have decreased significantly, the former returning to levels from late last year.
Infamous Bitfinex shorts "unwind"
The weekend’s price action was accompanied by fluctuating bets among large-volume investors.
Short positions on Bitfinex, a driver of short-term volatility as witnessed throughout the past weeks, ebbed and flowed.
While some traders and analysts expressed their lack of satisfaction with spot price action after two months of hovering in the same range, others were still mindful of potential disruption.
"Wouldn’t surprise me if we get a random move in the final 2-3 hours of this weekly candle on Bitcoin," Michaël van de Poppe told Twitter followers.
Sunday marked the date of the largest in a series of unlockings at the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). An event anticipated with nervousness by many, any obvious impact on price behavior had yet to be seen at the time of writing.
Altcoins set to lock in losses
Altcoins looked similarly lackluster on Sunday, with many of the top fifty cryptocurrencies by market cap lining up weekly losses akin to Bitcoin's -8%.
Bitcoin bull markets frequently see corrections from all-time highs, but only 2013 has beaten this year in terms of waiting times for a rebound.
It's now three months since the last Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high, but one measure suggests that holders may be waiting even longer for the next.
In a series of tweets on July 17, analytics service Ecoinometrics revealed that this year's descent from all-time highs is the second-longest in Bitcoin bull market history.
$30,000 may stay "for a while"
It's been 95 days since BTC/USD hit $64,500 and a major correction phase began. Investors are impatient, but despite strong fundamentals, Bitcoin spot price action seems in no hurry to leave $30,000 behind.
At 55% below the highs, Bitcoin is also threatening to cause problems for price forecasting models, including the historically unparalleled stock-to-flow.
If history is a guide, however, Bitcoin can still go sideways for months before rising to beat its record. As Ecoinometrics notes, 2013 saw a period of 197 days between two all-time highs.
"This is one of the longest drawdown Bitcoin has had to deal with during a post-halving bull market," it acknowledged in Twitter comments.
"But 95 days is still only half the duration of the big drawdown of 2013."
Back then, BTC/USD reached a price floor 69% below its previous all-time high, meaning that the current market setup could also permit levels below $30,000 and still remain within historical norms.
More broadly, however, 2013 is now looking like the year most similar to Bitcoin price events this year.
"In terms of price trajectory this correction also looks very similar to 2013," Ecoinometrics concluded.
"If we continue like that, BTC will remain stuck around $30k for a while..."
Retail investors are anything but gone
As Cointelegraph reported, recent on-chain behavior has painted $30,000 as more than just a psychological trading zone for Bitcoin.
A late surge to near $32,000 then entered as unconfirmed reports surfaced that Bank of America had given the go-ahead for Bitcoin futures trading.
Market participants held mixed opinions about the short-term outlook, with popular trader Michaël van de Poppe noting on Thursday that $31,000 was something of a final frontier for Bitcoin — lose it, and $29,000 or even $24,000 would logically be next.
Fellow trader Crypto Ed also appeared undecided on the day. Earlier in the week, he had argued that Bitcoin could stage a shock rebound and hit its range highs of $42,000 before reversing downward yet again to challenge $30,000 support.
“BTC making new lows is invalidating the idea of continuation of that bounce,” he wrote in an update. Even a comedown for the United States dollar currency index (DXY), traditionally inversely correlated with BTC, is unlikely to help bulls significantly, he added.
Update on this ⬆️ BTC making new lows is invalidating the idea of continuation of that bounce. I still think DXY should see a pull back but it's doubtfull that such will move BTC to 42k. Maybe there's no hidden play in the charts and BTC is just terribly weak and I was crazy pic.twitter.com/3nr65V9y4Z
Meanwhile, new data showed considerable on-chain activity having occurred at current price levels.
According to on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, 9.93% of the Bitcoin supply moved between $31,000 and $34,300 — a clear zone of interest for both buyers and sellers.
“This is now convincingly the largest realised volume cluster since $12k,” the firm commented.
Previously, Cointelegraph noted that $30,000 itself forms an important level in the minds of both small and large traders, whose behavior has flipped from a “sell” to a “buy” mentality in recent weeks.
Altcoins lose out on middling sentiment
A look at altcoins, meanwhile, underscored the lack of bullish sentiment across cryptocurrency markets as the week came to a close.
Most of the top 50 tokens by market capitalization saw heavier losses than BTC/USD, these reaching up to 12% amid an absence of price triggers.
Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, was heading to a crucial support zone of its own around $1,800. The start of a new accumulation period was now “very likely,” van de Poppe said in a YouTube update on Thursday prior to volatility reentering.
Bitcoin’s rising dominance, hitting 46% on the day, added to altcoins’ woes.
What seems to be a full reversal on a previously hostile Bitcoin stance is tempered by Mnuchin, who added that he still wouldn't be buying BTC himself.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be a "scam" for former U.S. president Donald Trump, but his treasury secretary appears to have made a U-turn on the world’s first and best-known cryptocurrency.
Speaking to CNBC on July 14, Steven Mnuchin confirmed that his perspective on Bitcoin had "evolved."
Mnuchin: Bitcoin stance has "evolved a little"
The Trump administration was known for its dismissive tone on Bitcoin in public, and those hoping for endorsement from Trump were ultimately left disappointed.
Mnuchin himself was less than inclined to offer support during his Treasury tenure, but his most recent comments reveal a clear softening of his stance.
"I think my view has evolved a little bit, but it is pretty consistent," he told the network.
"The first part is I think underlying technology of Blockchain is really incredible and has lots of different things, particulalry in fintech and finance. I think as it relates to Bitcoin, if people want to buy Bitcoin as a subsititute — no different from buying gold or some other asset — it's fine."
Mnuchin added that he "would not want to have" Bitcoin is his portfolio, but stressed that he was not against others adopting it.
Continuing, he expressed a desire for Bitcoin to have "complete BSA and regulatory compliance."
"As a matter of fact, under the OCC last year, we approved that banks could custodian it, and the reason we did that is because we wanted to make sure that this was becoming in the regulated world."
His words garnered praise from Bitcoin circles, with Saifedean Ammous, author of "The Bitcoin Standard," calling the changes "nice to see."
Bitcoin still has few political allies
Mnuchin's perspective now sounds increasingly at odds with that of Trump, who last month flatly called Bitcoin a "scam" in an episode which ultimately failed to impact market sentiment.
The picture under current president Joe Biden has meanwhile yet to offer much to Bitcoin proponents. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has voiced concerns about cryptocurrency more widely, and senior politicians are at odds over how to address it.
It is not just a U.S. predicament — El Salvador passing a Bitcoin legal tender law in June drew adverse reactions from global financial bodies including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
The law, which enters into effect in September, is so far without comparison anywhere in the world. Paraguay, which presented a regulatory bill on Bitcoin this week, has not revealed plans to adopt a "Bitcoin standard."
Still 50% below recent all-time highs, Bitcoin is without direction, something which leads opinions to favor a bearish outcome of what has been eight weeks of sideways movement.
For Nunyaz Bizniz, there are a number of technical factors which are converging to support $30,000 as a focal level.
These include $30,000 being “approximately” the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level on the monthly chart versus the $3,100 lows in late 2018, as well as the 2021 yearly opening price.
Its psychological significance is compounded by it being a round number, and as others have noted, it fits into a longer-term trendline which places $64,500 as something of a mini-run to a blow-off top.
“Its approximately the 1.618 Fib Ext. Which in the two prior cycles was tested as support but was never closed below on the monthly chart,” accompanying comments read about the Fibonacci phenomenon.
Research defends "Bitcoin supercycle"
The importance for Bitcoin not to break below $30,000 and fail to reclaim it compounds existing anxiety about a full-on BTC price breakdown.
Amid the unease, some voices caution that it is only a desire to interpret events to push one’s own narrative, bullish or bearish, which is at play.
Bitcoin itself, meanwhile, is not as weak as price suggests, as fundamentals confirm.
“Regardless on your risk appetite, strategizing now is key, so as not to miss the next wave in this current Bitcoin supercycle,” Stack Funds concluded in its latest report released Thursday.
Nunya Bizniz meanwhile included Tesla’s BTC stash as a potential sticking point. Below $30,000, the user calculated, the firm would start being underwater, which may trigger executive demands to sell more in order to reduce losses.
As Cointelegraph reported, investors are already back in the accumulation phase around $30,000.
The pair briefly touched $31,750 overnight before a sharp rebound produced highs of $32,970. This meant that $33,000, once firm support, still remained out of reach.
For popular trader Michaël van de Poppe, this zone from $32,600 upwards was "critical to break" in order for Bitcoin to have a chance at hitting targets higher up in its trading range.
"Many altcoins making double bottom tests. Great," he added in his latest Twitter update.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin circled $32,800 following repeated attempts to crack $33,000. Buy and sell levels on Binance showed support firmly in place at $30,000, with a resistance band at $33,000 nonetheless slowly fading.
Strong hands quietly scoop up liquidity
Expectations were high on the day ahead of a much-publicized "Bitcoin bill" being presented before the government of Paraguay. While information about the legislation has been sketchy, optimists hope that the country will seek to follow El Salvador and make Bitcoin legal tender.
Beyond network fundamentals, there was little else for bulls to leverage at the time of writing, with accumulation by investors big and small yet to show itself in price action.
In fresh analysis, however, William Clemente suggested that there could be a "lag" in price response.
"Vice versa. Price can sometimes lag the accumulation flows. For example in January or September 2020 we had a bull div, not nearly this size though," he said in Twitter comments.
"Also to note: we had one in March 2020, but macro forces can obviously override this."
Clemente highlighted a chart of Bitcoin's liquid supply ratio (LSR), a metric now signalling movement of BTC to those with little history of selling.
"Nothing has changed, supply shock still in play," he said, referencing last year's block subsidy halving.
"LSR shows that the action of Bitcoins being reabsorbed by strong hands only continues to diverge more from price. Exchanges also down -21,829 BTC in the last 2 weeks; clear trend of accumulation in those flows as well."
Investors who sold BTC above $30,000 on the way to all-time highs are now buying back in, Ecoinometrics reveals.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a “reset” in investor behavior at $30,000 and the trend need only continue to spark a price rise.
According to on-chain monitoring resource Ecoinometrics on July 13, the only way is “up” for BTC/USD if hodlers continue accumulating coins.
"Intriguing" data points to fresh demand
Analyzing who bought coins since the start of the latest bull run in October 2020, Ecoinometrics showed that major change is afoot compared to last year.
At the start, it was smaller investors, or “small fish,” who were accumulating. This began when Bitcoin passed its previous all-time high of $20,000 and continued all the way up to the new peak of $64,500.
At $20,000, however, larger investors began selling, albeit not in sufficient quantities to end the bull run.
Whales, on the other hand, added selling pressure once BTC/USD hit $30,000 for the first time. The result, analysts say, was the tipping point at May’s highs.
“Apparently $30k is a key level that stopped the trend of coins accumulation by whales,” Ecoinmetrics commented.
The reason that selling pressure ultimately took over could lie with whale sentiment that Bitcoin was gaining “too much, too soon,” and that the market was thus deemed unsustainable.
Now that $30,000 has returned, cold feet are nowhere to be found — investors, both big and small, are buying again.
“Whales and small fish have started accumulating again while other categories have turned neutral,” the findings continue.
“If that interpretation is correct, then what we had with this correction is a reset. Would that trend of accumulation continue, there is only one direction Bitcoin can go and that’s up.”
A glimmer of hopium
That perspective provides a refreshing counterargument to the bearish tone taken by many market commentators over the past few weeks.
Even the classic stock-to-flow price model has fielded concerns of invalidation, something its creator denies, while on-chain activity has been marked by low volumes and a lack of solid support above $30,000.
Calls for a major price move are not in short supply, meanwhile, with hopes for an upward move lingering despite sliding below $32,000 on Wednesday.
Ranging above $33,000, viewed as the support level to hold as a springboard for bullish continuation, seemed shaky at best this week. Monday saw a brief slip below, with the rebound barely holding out for 18 hours.
At the time of writing, $32,500 formed a focus, with Bitcoin bouncing below levels one trader says are necessary to hold in order to prevent a return to closer to $31,000.
"The critical support that I've derived here is the area around $32,600-$32,900, which you preferably want to see sustain as support to avoid another test of the lows," Michaël van de Poppe explained in an update earlier on Tuesday.
With that area missing for now, bearish sentiment looked apt to prevail on lower timeframes.
Fellow trader Crypto Ed even tweeted charts comparing current price action with the build-up to Bitcoin's bear market capitulation event in December 2018, when it dropped to just $3,100.
That said, fundamentals continued to stabilize after seeing local bottoms of their own. The hash rate was above 91 exahashes per second on the day, while difficulty continued to avert a fresh record-breaking drop at this weekend's readjustment.
Prospective U.S. Bitcoin ETF gets banking support
Elsewhere, news that BNY Mellon would be providing banking services for a potential Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) from Grayscale failed to lift the mood.
The largest cryptocurrency had maintained its familiar trading range with $33,000 as support through Saturday and Sunday, but the new week dampened momentum.
For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, unless progress can be made, Bitcoin bulls may not have long to last before fresh losses hit.
“The blue 50-week EMA is still holding as support,” he summarized in a series of tweets.
“If this HL isn’t reclaimed as support soon, the sell-side pressure on the 50 WEMA may be too much for $BTC to hold here.”
Others were more upbeat. In his latest video update, fellow trader Michaël van de Poppe went as far as to call a BTC price breakout within days.
“I believe that Bitcoin is going to make a breakout to the upside,” he forecast.
“I would not be surprised if Bitcoin is going to trade around $38,000 during the days of this week.”
A look at buy and sell levels at major exchange Binance showed resistance forming at $35,000, with $30,000 remaining in place as overall support.
Altcoins lurk ahead of market decision
Van de Poppe added that this movement might be good for altcoins, which could start capitalizing on bullish sentiment. He had previously argued that altcoins would outperform the speed of Bitcoin’s gains in the coming months.
“I think the altcoins are close to a bottom too,” he said on Friday.
A decisive month for GBTC market impact is set to begin, with BTC price action still "doing everything right" to preserve support.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in familiar territory — crucial support is back, but bulls have not yet got their breakout. Could that soon change?
After reclaiming $33,000 on Friday, BTC/USD has held on to the trading corridor it had been in before last week’s brief volatility.
That involved a dip to $32,000 on the back of sudden short positions accumulating on exchange Bitfinex.
The impact was only temporary, however, and the weekend has seen highs of $34,600 on Bitstamp.
Cointelegraph present five factors to consider when eyeing what Bitcoin might do next.
Stocks boom as USD hits classic resistance
With stocks going upwards as usual, there seems to be little in terms of friction that could cause problems for cryptocurrency gains.
While analysts are increasingly warning about a comedown in the future, the mood in equities remains firmly buoyant this week.
“There does seem to be a complacency that Goldilocks is not only alive and well, but that it’s getting stronger by the day,” Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, told Bloomberg.
“Unfortunately, it has to be recognized that going forward, the longer that rates remain where they are, the more that we look toward tapering, the more severe and acute could be the reaction.”
The U.S. dollar, however, could provide more clues.
Taking a look at the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which measures USD strength against a basket of 20 trading partner currencies, the picture shows some familiar resistance is back in play.
Late last week, one analyst argued that DXY needed to rise from its current 92.2 to around 94 in order to see major resistance kick in which would boost Bitcoin.
On Monday, however, DXY is still recovering from losses it incurred at the end of the week, also battling a zone which has kept it in check in the past.
Bitcoin’s inverse correlation to DXY has also been placed under the microscope recently, as BTC increasingly forges its own path within the macro environment.
Bitcoin price "doing all the right things"
Looking at the spot market, traders are bullish at the prospect of $33,000 returning and enduring after a brief bearish episode last week.
After "reaffirming" the level, trader and analyst Rekt Capital explained on Sunday, BTC/USD is back at the lower end of an established range.
"BTC is breaking back above the orange trendline," he said in a subsequent update alongside a chart showing the current landscape.
"$BTC is doing all the right things to reclaim this trendline as support. Reclaim the trend line as support and that'll be great progress towards challenging for a breakout from this blue wedging structure."
Monday has continued the trend, with Bitcoin trading at around $34,350 at the time of writing.
"Bitcoin is trying to rally and close an 8th week in a row above 34k with a long wick down. Lots of demand still," fellow trader Scott Melker added.
Last week, targets of up to $39,000 were in for Bitcoin should bulls manage to attack $35,500 resistance and continue, something which in the event failed to occur.
Fundamentals sustain their comeback
If last week’s price action disappointed, under the hood, Bitcoin has been working on a more important turnaround.
Data from monitoring resources on Monday shows that both network difficulty and hash rate are stabilizing and that therefore, the worst of the recent mining turbulence could be firmly over.
After its record drop earlier in July, difficulty was previously on track to beat even its latest performance and shed another 28% or more.
In the intervening period, however, a recovery has started to take place. Now, the next difficulty adjustment should only see a 10% drop, should price action remain near current levels.
“Blocks coming in at a rapid phase - next difficulty adjustment is now estimated at ~ -7.5% but it seems to me like hash rate is coming back pretty quickly at the moment,” angel investor Klaus Lovgreen summarized on the day.
The changes are testament to the power of the Bitcoin network to balance itself without any external assistance — regardless of the circumstances, difficulty adjusts to take into account any given eventuality.
The estimated hash rate remains only modestly above its recent lows of 83 exahashes per second (EH/s), but even here, stability and a slow return to the norm are visible.
As Cointelegraph reported, both metrics are expected to make fresh gains as mining power returns to Bitcoin after relocating out of China. The timeframe for this to happen, by contrast, is anyone’s guess.
Grayscale unlocks 40,000 BTC
An event that is on every Bitcoin market participant’s radar this month is the multiple unlockings of BTC at institutional giant Grayscale.
As Cointelegraph explained, the Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC) is due to release in excess of 40,000 BTC in the coming weeks, this having been subject to a six-month lock-up period.
July 18 is of particular interest, with that day’s unlocking worth just over 16,000 BTC.
“When GBTC shares unlock and get sold, the GBTC Premium drops (share price drops relative to the BTC in the trust),” statistician Willy Woo commented last week.
“Investors now have more incentive to by GBTC shares rather than BTC, it diverts some of the buying pressure on BTC spot markets. This is bearish.”
Bullish price metric nears "launch zone"
In need of some reliable “hopium” for the week ahead? Bitcoin market analytics has the answer.
On Monday, attention was turning to a nifty indicator from on-chain data service CryptoQuant which has historically caught every major BTC price run in the past two years.
Dubbed the Taker Buy Sell Volume/Ratio, it tracks exchange data to produce as a guide for when to HODL and when is a good opportunity to take profit during a local market cycle.
Right now, the Ratio appears to be forecasting another BTC/USD surge, leading to a classic “take profit” point.
Analyst Cole Garner has even highlighted what to expect should history repeat itself. He noted, however, that the trigger phase — where the Ratio touches the upper green channel, has “not happened yet.”
“Buy signal incoming,” he nonetheless commented.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The Puell Multiple bounces from its latest rare trip into the "buy" zone, and previously, BTC/USD has subsequently put in a macro bottom.
A classic Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator has seen a “hell of a bounce” even as price action stays uncertain.
In a tweet on July 9, Philip Swift, creator of analytics resource Look Into Bitcoin, highlighted a dramatic change of course for the Puell Multiple.
Advancing Puell and hash rate "a good sign"
A deceptively simple metric, Puell tracks miner behavior with a view to understanding Bitcoin market extremes.
It has served extremely well as an indicator of when BTC price tops and bottoms are likely due, and in late June dipped into its green “buy” zone for only the fifth time in history.
Thanks in part to last weekend’s record difficulty readjustment, Swift says, Puell has now reversed upwards — and if it keeps going, higher prices should logically follow.
“Hell of a bounce out of the green zone this week for the Puell Multiple,” he summarized.
“Largely down to the difficulty adjustment and increase in hashrate. Will be a good sign if we see this and hashrate continue to climb quickly as bitcoin miners come back onboard.”
As Cointelegraph reported, miners returning to work after being displaced from China will create more competition and boost the Bitcoin hash rate, with difficulty climbing once again to account for the changes.
Estimates vary greatly as to when the turbulence impacting mining will be truly over.
A reversal for Puell meanwhile could herald a definitive macro Bitcoin price floor. As trader and analyst Rekt Capital recently observed, dips into the green zone tend to be followed soon afterwards by a BTC/USD bottom.
The trip into the green itself occurs while Bitcoin is still preparing to put the bottom in, and does not completely line up with price behavior.
Playing down Grayscale unlocking
Bitcoin price action is seeing strength as the weekend progresses, something which could nonetheless result in a reversal in line with recent short-term trends.
Appetite for BTC is real at current levels, data shows, with bears needing to search hard for an on-chain metric that is not positive.
Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain activity is "dead" but on-chain indicators are overwhelmingly positive right now, says analyst William Clemente.
In the latest edition of Anthony Pompliano's weekly newsletters, Clemente highlighted multiple metrics showing no reason to be bearish about Bitcoin this month.
50,000 new Bitcoin entities every day
With BTC price action failing to impress, there is no shortage of bearish outlooks on Bitcoin, with even its best-known price models coming in for criticism.
If on-chain data is anything to go by, Clemente argues, the situation is far from bearish.
"The growth of new users is now reaching new all-time highs, over 50,000 new entities coming on-chain a day," he summarized.
Those new entities could well be putting pressure on exchange reserves, which have resumed their downtrend — in the past week alone, almost 18,000 BTC has left exchange wallets.
"Retail has been buying heavily for weeks now, but we finally got the uptick in whales that we were waiting for," the newsletter continued.
"There were 17 new whales birthed on the blockchain this week, while at the same time the overall holdings of whales increase up by 65,429 BTC."
As Cointelegraph reported, whales have already been in the news for other reasons this week, with one giant build-up of short positions on exchange Bitfinex instigating a price dip which lost BTC/USD important $33,000 support.
More broadly, by contrast, Clemente views current activity as an "uptick in positive whale activity."
Never mind slow block times
Elsewhere, cause for optimism comes from a diminishing premium on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) despite the impending unlocking events.
Hash rate has likewise not returned to challenge recent lows of 83 exahashes per second (EH/s), leaving only transaction numbers to worry about.
"Overall, on-chain activity is dead, shown by the number of Bitcoin transactions," Clemente acknowledged.
Even here, however, there is a caveat.
"If I had to build up a bear case and challenge my own opinion this is one of the charts I would use; however, a portion of this drawdown is likely from people using the Bitcoin network less due to slower block times," he reasoned.
The proposal envisages Dogecoin having on-chain transactions as the norm, with exchanges essentially fulfilling the role that the Lightning Network does on Bitcoin.
Exchanges currently process large numbers of transactions internally without touching the blockchains of respective coins. These are then synced as necessary, resulting in fewer on-chain transactions and therefore fewer fees and less strain on the relevant blockchain.
Responding, Twitter users took issue with the concept that exchanges would be happy to fulfill such a role.
Employing centralized trusted third parties as the backbone of a payment network, others hinted, was vastly inferior to the Lightning Network solution.
"Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are pursuing a multi planetary space transport, but development is slow & cost is high," podcast host Peter McCormack mockingly replied.
"There is merit imo to building rockets with spit and cardboard, increasing build speed and minimising cost."
DOGE price limps 70% below peak
For all the attention, meanwhile, DOGE/USD once again moved only slightly, trading up 7.6% at just under $0.23 at the time of writing.