Scott Minerd seems convinced that a huge price correction is imminent, as industry names line up to disprove him.
The chief investment officer of investment giant Guggenheim has repeated warnings that Bitcoin (BTC) will crash to $20,000.
In an interview with CNBC on April 20, Scott Minerd warned again that Bitcoin could lose half of its value in a pullback.
Familiar Bitcoin bear target resurfaces
“Given the massive move we’ve had in bitcoin over the short run, things are very frothy, and I think we’re going to have to have a major correction in bitcoin,” Minerd told the network.
Bitcoin lingered near $55,000 on Wednesday, having bounced off $52,000 in the latest pullback of its 2021 bull market.
For Minerd, who last claimed that BTC/USD would return to $20,000 in January, such an event would form part of a normal market cycle’s ups and downs. His longer-term forecast of $400,000 per Bitcoin still stood, he said.
“I think we could pull back to $20,000 to $30,000 on bitcoin, which would be a 50% decline, but the interesting thing about bitcoin is we’ve seen these kinds of declines before,” he continued.
Minerd, who previously garnered controversy over his BTC price remarks, was nevertheless not alone in his bearish near-term prognosis. As Cointelegraph reported, JPMorgan analysts likewise sounded the alarm this week, their concern focused on futures markets.
An entirely average BTC pullback
Reacting, Bitcoin proponents dismissed any idea that deeper losses were inevitable, referencing a combination of factors including strong on-chain indicators.
“Wrong,” Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano responded to Minerd.
On Jan. 20, the executive had claimed that Bitcoin had put in a price top for the remainder of the year. Since then, BTC/USD has more than doubled.
"In 2017, the average BTC Bull Market correction took 16 days. This most recent pullback has been going on for only 7 days," popular Twitter account Rekt Capital noted about the current price action.
"So while corrections tend to last a few weeks... They are very short in the grander scheme of the overall Bull Market."
On-chain indicators are simply too bullish to permit a deeper price plunge, analysts argue, with Bitcoin set to remain a trillion-dollar asset.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a tsunami of new user adoption as a backdrop to prices likely bottoming at around $52,000, say analysts.
In a series of tweets on April 20, statistician Willy Woo led calls for calm about Bitcoin's recent price dip and subsequent lingering $9,000 below recent all-time highs.
$1 trillion cap has created new "line in the sand"
Reiterating previous assertions, Woo argued that buyer support had firmly established Bitcoin as a trillion-dollar asset and that BTC/USD would, therefore, not fall much below the equivalent spot price to maintain it — around $53,000.
"This revisit of lower price has created incredibly strong price validation for Bitcoin about $1T cap. 14% of the supply last moved above $1T cap," he wrote.
"This is a key line in the sand imprinted into BTC's price discovery, an area of immense support."
Woo also highlighted the continued transfer of coins from weak hands to strong, along with a surge in new users entering the space.
For fellow analyst William Clemente, this "hockey stick" shape of new adoption was of essential significance.
"This is the most important post of this thread by far," he replied to Woo, who noted that technical traders had been far more bearish on Bitcoin despite the strength of on-chain indicators.
JPMorgan turns bearish on BTC... again
Among these was JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who in his latest note argued that this price dip would not see buyers step in like before.
Futures positions unwinding, he added, would not reverse and, thus, overall interest in institutional Bitcoin bets would now fade.
"Over the past few days Bitcoin futures markets experienced a steep liquidation in a similar fashion to the middle of last February, middle of last January or the end of last November,” Bloomberg quoted the note as stating.
“Momentum signals will naturally decay from here for several months, given their still elevated level.”
At the time of writing, BTC/USD was still undecided on its short-term trajectory, clinging to $55,000 as signs of life returned to certain altcoins.
One cryptocurrency no longer outperforming was Dogecoin (DOGE), which was down 18% on Wednesday after "Dogecoin Day" — an attempt to boost the price to $4.20 — fell flat on its face.
With volatility still present, the pair nonetheless looked increasingly reliable above $52,000, a significant support zone and the floor seen during last Sunday's flash crash from all-time highs.
News that PayPal-owned payment company Venmo had launched cryptocurrency buying and selling to its app appeared to buoy the recovery. On the flip side, a social media-induced "Dogecoin Day" was adding pressure to Bitcoin's immediate upside prospects as funds continued to flow into DOGE on the day.
As Cointelegraph reported, the aim of the "celebration" is to launch DOGE/USD to $4.20 to coincide with the date and the week in which SpaceX "Technoking," Elon Musk, promises to "put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon" with his latest rocket launch.
The hashtag #Doge420 was trending on Twitter at the time of writing, with DOGE/USD trading at just over $0.38, coincidentally up 420% in a week but flat on the day. U.S. traders were yet to wake up, leaving the prospect of gains later in the day open.
RSI indicator tells BTC bulls to keep the faith
Back within Bitcoin, meanwhile, traders were eyeing one indicator in particular as signalling both solid support at $52,000 and that this week's dip would now bounce definitively.
Stochastic relative strength index (RSI), a expression of RSI's own strength, hinted that Sunday's dip was already following the pattern of six previous pullbacks in BItcoin's current bull run.
As such, daily performance should now see BTC/USD lifted off its recent floor and continue grinding upwards.
Tradingview account Elliot0511, who uploaded a chart showing the habitual behavior, said in comments that there was no reason to think that this time would be different. It summarized:
"As we see from the chart we have a double confirmation that this DIP is almost at the end, we can establish it from the fact that, besides the fact that the price is bounced on the main support, we also have Stoch RSI at 0, this happened only 6 times from Bull market start and there was always a rebound, I don't see reason why this time the same thing should not happen, the Bull market has just begun, don't scare yourself because there is no reason."
Popular Twitter account IncomeSharks likewise highlighted the floor price level and pointed to decreasing DOGE inflows being apt to fuel Bitcoin's comeback.
"If you are willing to buy a hyped up meme coin at these prices, you should have no problem adding some Bitcoin spot here," it told followers Tuesday.
"Once $DOGE dumps we should see a nice recovery. No point talking about any price lower than $52,000 unless this doesn't hold, which I think it will."
Since his April Fool’s Day tweet, Dogecoin has seen engagement like never before, dwarfing even that which accompanied Musk’s earlier endorsements. Besides the hashtag "#DogeDay" trending in the United States on Twitter, data from Google Trends shows that “Doge” is in the process of being Googled more than ever. However, other social media metrics are suggesting that the craze may already fading on social media.
Another improvised red-letter day is April 20, or “Dogecoin Day 4/20,” which according to social media is allegedly when DOGE/USD will hit $4.20 per coin.
Amid the fervor, however, stood some voices of reason. Among them was trader Scott Melker, who told U.S. traders looking to book profits to be mindful of legal implications.
“If you believe that $DOGE (or another coin) is the future of money, please remember that the government views it as property and every single time you spend it it’s a taxable sale of the coin,” he warned.
“This is important. Buy something with crypto in the US = selling crypto.”
Bitcoin, meanwhile, could only yap at Dogecoin’s heels, down 0.7% on the day to stay close to $55,000.
Cointelegraph presents five factors to consider as a new trading week gets underway and cryptocurrency holders across the board nurse their wounds.
Stocks primed for "up only" short term
The macro picture is fairly stable in Asia and Europe, with United States markets yet to open.
A mixed picture greeted investors at the open, but volatility has been broadly absent, with only oil showing signs of more pronounced weakness.
As such, little impact on Bitcoin is to be expected from equities moves, these forecast to continue building on record highs in the coming weeks.
Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at the Australian branch of crypto-friendly investment manager VanEck, captured the mood in a note quoted by Bloomberg.
“Our current view is that with short-term interest rates set to remain low for the medium term and our expectation that earnings will continue to increase, it is unlikely that the increase in long-term interest rates will trigger an equity market fall,” he wrote.
Coronavirus concerns still linger despite stocks’ relentless surge higher, with more reported official cases last week than ever before worldwide.
Economic responses continue to vary, with a patchwork of openings and closings characterizing countries’ latest attempts to control the outbreak.
Bitcoin recovers from $52,000 crash
In Bitcoin circles, the main talking point naturally remains the weekend’s events, which saw a sudden cascade of selling send BTC/USD down by $7,000 in a matter of minutes.
Bouncing at just above $52,000, the crash echoed several similar events this year, and Bitcoin managed to regain around 50% of its lost ground within hours.
Responses, however, are split between those who consider the volatility “business as usual” and more conservative voices calling time on the latest bull run.
As Cointelegraph reported, suspicions are focusing on a Chinese power blackout hitting hash rate, as well as rumored legal action by U.S. regulators against unnamed financial institutions related to money laundering.
In his own breakdown of what happened, popular statistician Willy Woo highlighted both China and skittish moves by futures investors as contributing to the losses.
"We just saw the single largest 1-day drop in mining hash rate since Nov 2017. The hash rate on the network essentially halved, causing mayhem in BTC price as it crashed," he told Twitter followers.
In a sign that the future could see fresh sustained upside, Woo reiterated the “reset” in an on-chain metric, the spent transaction output ratio (SOPR), showing that long-term investors will likely soon stop selling altogether.
“The on-chain SOPR metric near a full reset. A classic buy the dip signal,” he added.
“In simple terms, profit taking by longer term investors is completing, very little sell power left unless investors want to sell at a loss from their entry price. Unlikely in a bull market.”
Fundamentals point higher
It’s not just SOPR — a whole range of Bitcoin network indicators and fundamentals are buoying bulls’ cause, even as BTC/USD remains below even February’s high of $58,300.
For Woo and others, particularly important are the transfer of funds to investors who have traditionally hodled, not sold — another classic trait of Bitcoin’s rise in recent months.
“Serious strong-handed holders are buying this dip. In the last 24 hours, over 200,000 Bitcoin became illiquid, a 3-year record,” fellow analyst William Clemente added Sunday.
“This illiquid supply increase is not only just dip buyers with no history of selling, but partially accumulation from 5-6 months ago of which those wallets have just crossed the 'illiquid' threshold for this metric.”
Lastly, around 13.5% of the total available Bitcoin supply has been active above $53,000, something which Woo says is confirming its status as a trillion-dollar asset. At around $53,800, Bitcoin’s market cap becomes a solid $1 trillion.
“This dip happened while unprecedented numbers of new users are arriving onto the network per day. There's been a retail influx in the last 2-3 weeks,” Woo additionally noted, with total wallet numbers nearing 10 million.
Difficulty takes care of miner woes
A closer look at hash rate, which at one point dipped by almost half, shows that a recovery in line with price is underway.
According to rough estimates from on-chain monitoring resource Blockchain, Bitcoin network hash rate is already back above 150 exahashes per second (EH/s), having broken through the 200 EH/s barrier for the first time in history last week.
Miners leaving the network due to power problems leads to Bitcoin’s network difficulty decreasing to incentivize more to come online.
Further confirmation that the weekend’s issue was firmly temporary comes from difficulty forecasts — in two weeks’ time, when it next adjusts, difficulty will only drop by around 4%, a modest move which could yet be cancelled out altogether as miners return.
This balance between hash rate and difficulty is arguably the most important aspect of Bitcoin, one which allows it to govern itself and preserve security and functionality regardless of sudden events impacting network participants.
Chinese central bank praises Bitcoin and stablecoins
In another unanticipated event which is arguably yet to be fully appreciated by the market, China has given an unprecedented stamp of approval to cryptocurrency as an “investment alternative.”
Speaking at a conference organized by CNBC, Li Bo, deputy governor of China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), broke ranks to validate both Bitcoin and stablecoins.
“We regard Bitcoin and stablecoin as crypto assets... These are investment alternatives,” he said.
The comments are surprising as despite being a center for Bitcoin mining activity, China has had a blanket ban in place on trading and transacting in cryptocurrencies since September 2017.
“Every country that bans Bitcoin eventually reverses that ban. You simply cannot be competitive in the 21st century economy without it,” Charles Edwards, founder of investment firm Capriole, responded.
“China is playing 4D chess. The last 3 days have made very clear they still dominate global mining. Slowly, slowly then all at once.”
The market barely reacted to this high-level affirmation of Bitcoin’s long-term potential. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is still hovering at $57,000, as yet failing to see an attack of familiar resistance levels.
Having lost $60,000 support earlier in the weekend, BTC/USD was still fairly stable before the snap price event, which liquidated positions worth almost $10 billion over the past 24 hours.
At around $7,000, the hourly loss challenges the record reversal seen in February after Bitcoin hit $58,000 for the first time.
In the aftermath, analysts pointed to two events as potential causes: a hash rate crash and rumors from unnamed sources that United States regulators were about to charge unnamed "financial institutions" with crypto-related money laundering.
Hash rate — an estimate of the computing power dedicated to the network by miners — crashed by almost half according to some estimates. This was due to a mass outage in China's Xinjiang province, home to a large number of miners, which began two days ago.
In a classic depiction of the old adage, "price follows hash rate," BTC/USD then caught up with reality.
"Price and hash rate has always been correlated," statistician Willy Woo argued, pointing to a similar event from November 2017.
Woo added that as then, the impact on price action was temporary and that hash rate had meanwhile already "almost fully recovered."
Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter was similarly unfazed as the Xinjiang problems began, but forecast that media interest in the event would be significant.
"If the outage lasts 3 weeks then bitcoin will have a historically large difficulty adjustment but I think that’s unlikely — either grid comes back online or miners will move their hardware," he said as part of a social media discussion on Saturday.
Bitcoin's difficulty declines when miners exit the network, but according to the latest estimates, its next adjustment will only see a modest 1.8% decline.
No panic among hodlers
Meanwhile, another topic allegedly roiling sentiment appeared to be a single tweet about U.S. legal action.
U.S. TREASURY TO CHARGE SEVERAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR MONEY LAUNDERING USING CRYPTOCURRENCIES -SOURCES
Surfacing right at the time of the price crash, Twitter account FXHedge quoted anonymous "sources" as warning over regulators taking unnamed "financial institutions" to court over money laundering related to cryptocurrency.
No other details were given, but the tweet swiftly gained over 5,000 likes and almost as many retweets, with the $52,000 nosedive then ensuing.
While mainstream media seized on the action, seasoned Bitcoiners were as cool as ever about what was just business as usual in a bull run.
"Honestly, after you've been in the game long enough, you go numb to Bitcoin price dips," podcast host Steven Livera tweeted.
"Just Bitcoin doing its thing on the way to $10M+."
At the time of writing, BTC/USD had recovered about half of its losses to trade above $56,000.
Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder and CTO of on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, cited a classic on-chain metric as proof that now was a perfect time to buy Bitcoin.
The spent transaction output ratio (SOPR), which measures overall profit and loss, had "reset" for the first time since after March's all-time highs of $61,700.
The old adage “price follows hash rate” may be about to see one of its biggest tests in the past 12 years.
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a classic indicator of a coming bull run pass a historic milestone as miners commit more and more resources to its future.
According to data from on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode on Friday, Bitcoin’s network hash rate has passed total exahashes per second for the first time in its history.
Hash rate underscores miner commitment
Coming as a spike in a long-term uptrend, crossing the significant boundary means that the hash rate has doubled in under nine months.
An estimate of the computing power dedicated to the network by miners, the hash rate has traditionally acted as an early signal that a bull run is imminent. Price action, as various sources have noted over the years, tends to follow any major rises weeks to months later.
As Cointelegraph reported, however, the hash rate is just one of a host of on-chain metrics flashing firmly bullish this year.
Commenting on their relationship to price, investor and serial Bitcoin pundit Anthony Pompliano argued that new all-time highs for BTC/USD were similarly foretold by prior on-chain activity.
“This comes as no surprise, with last week’s letter describing a very bullish setup on-chain and was just a waiting game until price broke out of consolidation,” he wrote in his latest newsletter Friday.
Buying pressure sweeps Coinbase
Joining the optimism on the day, meanwhile, was the so-called “Coinbase premium,” a metric dedicated to the difference in the price of Bitcoin on major exchange Coinbase versus fellow trading platform Binance.
As noted by data resource CryptoQuant, the higher the “premium,” the more implied buying pressure Coinbase is seeing. Currently, the figure sits at 0.33, spiking sharply overnight.
Coinbase successfully debuted on Nasdaq earlier this week, bringing its profile and that of cryptocurrency more broadly to a new mainstream audience.
Bitcoin itself, however, has yet to see a transformation — its price coming down from the highs witnessed just before Coinbase went public to test $60,000 support repeatedly thereafter.
An area around $61,200, described as crucial to maintaining upward momentum, failed to secure bulls’ interests.
Turkey moving to ban transactions in cryptocurrency, while practically irrelevant to the industry as a whole, did not help sentiment as the news broke earlier on the day. The ban will take effect on April 30.
At the time of writing, a single DOGE traded at around $0.25. Gains on any timeframe remained beyond impressive — 80% on the day, 300% over the past week and year-to-date returns in excess of 5,000%.
Versus the same date one year ago, shortly after the pit of the brief 2020 bear market, Dogecoin is up 12,600%.
Reacting, it appeared that even professional traders had been caught by surprise.
"This is the first DOGE pump I have missed in years, but I still absolutely love to see it. Favorite asset of all time, changed my life in 2017. Happy for you guys who are in it, innit?" Scott Melker tweeted.
Turkey passes crypto transaction ban
As with altcoins more broadly, meanwhile, Doge's historic reversal of fortune came at the expense of Bitcoin (BTC) on the day, with the largest cryptocurrency seeing a forecast retest of previous all-time highs around $61,000.
Several tests of $61,000 support left the door open for further dips on Friday, bringing daily losses to around 2.8%.
Bitcoin's market cap dominance stood at 52.1%, also down noticeably in recent weeks as altcoins see their time in which some analysts believe will only reach a peak later this summer.
A ban on transactions by Turkey's central bank was tipped to have fuelled the loss of upside momentum, this being done due to possible "irrepairable" side-effects to the country's established fiat payment network.
"It is considered that their use in payments may cause non-recoverable losses for the parties to the transactions due to the above-listed factors and they include elements that may undermine the confidence in methods and instruments used currently in payments," Reuters quoted a statement as saying.
Also showing signs of a cooldown was Ether (ETH), which returned closer to $2,400 after seeing its own all-time highs above $2,500 the day before.
The Horizons Inverse Bitcoin ETF (BITI) aims to allow investors to take advantage of Bitcoin price volatility, say executives.
Bitcoin (BTC) investors in Canada have two more outlets for BTC exposure this week — and can now even bet on a price crash.
In a press release on April 14, Horizons ETFs Management confirmed that its two new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) would start trading on the Toronto stock exchange Thursday.
Horizons: Bitcoin has "polarizing views"
Already a pioneer in the regulated institutional investment space for Bitcoin, Canada has now given the go-ahead for the first such fund dedicated to Bitcoin price losses, not gains.
Dubbed the BetaPro Inverse Bitcoin ETF (BITI), the fund allows investors to short Bitcoin futures. Rather than a sign of bearish sentiment, however, executives describe the offering as a way to capture episodes of price volatility.
Its sister, the BetaPro Bitcoin ETF (HBIT), will function in the more traditional sense, complementing the short opportunity.
"We know that there are polarizing views on bitcoin and as a result, there are investors with a high degree of conviction on both the bullish and bearish cases for the asset class," Steve Hawkins, President and CEO of Horizons ETFs, said in the release.
"In launching HBIT and BITI, our goal is to provide investment tools that allow investors to get liquid access to the returns of bitcoin futures with the ability to go long or short the asset class, based on their outlook and conviction."
ETFs see fervent demand
The move comes as Bitcoin circles new all-time highs near $65,000 and institutional interest grows in tandem.
This week, open interest in Bitcoin futures reached a fresh historic peak, passing $25 billion ahead of exchange Coinbase being listed on Nasdaq.
Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), nonetheless continued to produce a negative share price premium relative to spot prices, and traded at around a 14.3% discount on Thursday.
United States regulators have yet to approve a single Bitcoin ETF, giving Canada a firm edge despite its market being a fraction of its neighbor.
The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, the first to get the green light in the country earlier this year, now has $1.4 billion CAD ($1.12 billion USD) in assets under management.
As Cointelegraph noted, however, exposure to ETFs is still possible indirectly in the U.S.
More proof that Bitcoin is far from the most vertical stage of its bull run comes from PlanB and the relative strength index.
Bitcoin (BTC) can surge to $92,000 in the next two weeks and still “only” be matching its past performance, new data claims.
In a tweet on Wednesday, PlanB, the analyst behind the stock-to-flow family of Bitcoin price models, noted that despite this week’s gains, BTC/USD still has plenty of energy in it.
PlanB focused on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), a classic metric used to chart the progress of price runs in particular.
RSI can give a useful insight into whether Bitcoin is overbought at a certain point in its bull run, while the opposite — oversold — is also true.
As Cointelegraph reported, PlanB has highlighted the metric’s cues for hodlers throughout the past year, including during the Spring bear market bottom and in August, when sentiment was gearing up for the bull run that continues to this day.
Currently, RSI measures 92/100. This is near the top of its range but at least three points off the peak of Bitcoin’s 2013 and 2017 bull runs — to match them, a lot more upside is needed.
“Bitcoin is looking strong at RSI 92. Still not above RSI 95 like 2017, 2013 and 2011 bull markets,” PlanB summarized.
“I calculated BTC price needed for RSI 95 at April close: $92K. Let’s see what the Coinbase IPO will do today.”
What’s in a public listing?
For those who consider $92,000 to be overly optimistic, PlanB is not alone in predicting more, not less, vertical movements from Bitcoin in the future. This week, the latest chart showing BTC’s 2021 performance compared to 2013 and 2017 likewise revealed that Bitcoin is in fact behaving “modestly” and not increasing too quickly.
PlanB, meanwhile, touched on a major event for exchange Coinbase set for Wednesday: its debut on the Nasdaq.
Bitcoin is stuck in a "tame" post-halving scenario and has far to run before reaching its cycle peak, says the popular research outlet.
Bitcoin (BTC) is a "caged bull" and the end of its current price run is nowhere near at $60,000, says Bloomberg Intelligence.
In a tweet on April 12, senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone delivered his latest bullish verdict on the state of Bitcoin this month.
Analyst: 2021 bull market is "tame"
According to McGlone, who eyed a declining BTC supply coupled with roaring demand from new investors, Bitcoin has far to go before it reaches a cycle top, or "plateau."
"Still in Price-Discovery Mode, Bitcoin Plateau Appears Distant — Bitcoin supply is declining and demand is rising, leading us to expect continued price appreciation and the establishment of a higher plateau as the crypto matures," he commented.
An accompanying chart described Bitcoin as a "caged bull, well rested to escape." It included Bollinger bands for Bitcoin, a popular tool for assessing upside and downside volatility.
Compared to the year after its two previous block subsidy halvings in 2012 and 2016, meanwhile, 2021 for McGlone is "tame" in terms of price action.
This chimes with other analysts' perspectives, among them the popular Ecoinometrics Twitter account, which on Monday again highlighted just how modest Bitcoin's post-halving growth has been over the past year compared to cycles past.
McGlone is a well-known Bitcoin fan, frequently voicing his excitement for the cryptocurrency's growth based on various macro and on-chain metrics.
Galaxy moves in on Bitcoin ETF
At the time of writing, BTC/USD hovered at around $60,400, having briefly broken below $60,000 support in what remain choppy trading conditions.
The upcoming Coinbase direct listing on Nasdaq was fuelling excitement among analysts, with altcoins likewise surging ahead of the launch on Wednesday this week.
Exchange coins, notably Binance Coin (BNB), led the gains, while largest altcoin Ether (ETH) also hit historic all-time highs.
The total cryptocurrency market cap stood at $2.087 trillion on the day.
Among institutions, crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital became the latest actor to apply to launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fun (ETF) in the United States. Regulators are yet to approve any of the now nine applications, but anticipation is high that they will finally do so after Canada beat the U.S. to the punch in February.
It’s a sea of green across cryptocurrency on Monday as all-time highs come back within reach for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) is back with a vengeance this week as a new day’s trading gets underway with a fresh attack on $60,000.
After a weekend in which the largest cryptocurrency avoided a correction, Monday is looking bullish — but what could shape price action in the short term?
Cointelegraph presents five factors to keep an eye on for Bitcoin traders as the market inches closer to historic all-time highs.
Stocks reflect coronavirus mayhem
The macro picture is a tale of two coronavirus moods this week.
With the United Kingdom exiting lockdown, sentiment among business leaders has bounced to highs, indicative of pockets of optimism surfacing in the West still battered by coronavirus restrictions.
The picture is muddied by eurozone main players France and Germany, in which the picture is much less rosy, while the United States is also a patchwork of policy when it comes to the virus.
As such, stocks are broadly flat as the week begins, while elsewhere, a looming lockdown is sending sentiment plummeting in India, Monday’s main downward mover.
The controversial measures from Delhi “are unnerving markets and no one is sure whether lockdowns will help bring cases under control,” Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities told Bloomberg.
“The incentive to try and bottom-fish at this point is limited for traders.”
Markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz, meanwhile, described a “busy” week for equities, noting new highs for mainstream risk assets on Friday — something which increasingly includes Bitcoin.
Breakout on the cards for Bitcoin
The signal of the moment within Bitcoin is finally tied to the spot market.
On Monday, $60,000 is back after BTC/USD last passed the significant price level early on Saturday.
The weekend saw the largest weekly close in Bitcoin’s history at around $60,000.
At the time of writing, the BTC/USD pair is targeting $61,000 again, less than $1,000 from all-time highs. Among analysts, expectations of Bitcoin reentering uncharted territory are predictably high.
“Another breakout attempt,” on-chain analytics service Skew summarized.
A look at order book activity on major exchange Binance shows sellers lined up at $60,500, $61,500 and $62,000 before orders begin to dry up. On the buy side, $59,000, $58,000 and $57,000 remain strong areas of interest.
The resulting constriction of volatility, with Bitcoin sandwiched between major buy and sell interest, is a classic signal for the final stages of price consolidation. At 50 days, Bitcoin has now been in such a consolidatory regime since hitting $58,300 for the first time in the last week of February.
For popular Twitter trader Crypto Ed, the latest move is surprising, as just last week, more bearish signals filled the low-timeframe landscape. Sunday, in addition, was pointing to an incoming drop.
“Surprising PA this morning invalidating this idea,” he commented.
Coinbase punctuates booming on-chain indicators
Cointelegraph has often reported on the strength of Bitcoin on-chain indicators this year, these consistently demanding a continuation of the bull market throughout 2021.
Despite the past weeks’ consolidation, nothing has changed for fundamentals, which show that Bitcoin is not yet near the bull cycle peak, for example like that of December 2017.
“Summary: - derivs a bit overheated - constant strong spot bid - institutional driven flow - no peak retail euphoria yet - mainstream adoption getting very real - Coinbase IPO could be volatility catalyst,” it concluded.
Many of those points refer to material already covered by Cointelegraph, while Coinbase’s upcoming direct listing on Nasdaq (Wednesday) may provide a rare counterpoint narrative this week.
Specifically, listing day can often see a sell-off for companies going public, and this Wednesday may therefore see temporary volatility.
“Coinbase’ google searches suggest that normies haven’t caught on yet,” Byzantine General added.
“It seems to be only crypto nerds that are aware and even among us there’s disagreement on what this event entails.”
Ether sees fresh historic peak in altcoin surge
It’s not just Bitcoin shooting for the moon on Monday — altcoins are setting records, indicative of a broader leg up for cryptocurrency interest.
These are being led by Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, which has hit new all-time highs on the day, currently at $2,190.
Long tipped to be targeting $5,000 and even $10,000 this cycle, ETH/USD has gained 7% in the past week, frequently outperforming Bitcoin itself.
That performance nonetheless pales in comparison to other major cap altcoins, notably Binance Coin (BNB), which is up 70% in seven days and nearing $600.
“I think $BNB is headed to $600. Pennant break. All time high break. Price discovery. A lot to like. Looks insane on $BTC pair as well,” analyst Scott Melker commented on the action last weekend in a timely prediction.
As Cointelegraph reported, “alt season 2.0” is expected to hit its stride only in summer and reaching hitherto unknown proportions. Fellow analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, believes altcoins’ time is already here.
Now seemend different, however, with Bitcoin going on to pass $61,000 before consolidating at around $60,650 at the time of writing.
"$163,745,606 of Bitcoin shorts liquidated in an hour," quant analyst Lex Moskovski noted on Twitter as the market turned.
"While Bitcoin is grinding up to another ATH. Being a bear is expensive."
The picture was indeed a surprising one for traders who had spent weeks in a sideways market which occasionally tapped multi-week lows.
The impetus behind the latest rise was still to become clear on Saturday, as was the true extent of its staying power given the importance of $60,000 as a psychological support level to capture.
One notable change was funding rates across exchanges, which had decreased markedly in previous days, translating to reduced friction at and above $60,000 before spiking as the market rose higher.
No hint of a market top
Some had nonetheless called for an optimistic take on the market setup this week. Among them was Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, who stated that Bitcoin at $58,000 had a lot in common technically with Bitcoin at $20,000.
"I'm still very bullish above 58K. Structure the same as at 20K IMO; a lot of other market nuances similar too in orderflow and depth," he told subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Friday.
A day earlier, fellow Decentrader analyst Philip Swift had voiced similar leanings, using the upcoming cross of two important moving averages to suggest that BTC/USD had further to run.
These were the 111-day and 350-day moving averages, the latter multiplied by two, together known as a Pi Cycle.
"My current near-term market outlook for Bitcoin is neutral-bullish, so my personal view is that there is a good probability this is not the market cycle top for Bitcoin when the Pi Cycle Indicator moving averages cross in a few day’s time," Swift wrote in a market update.
"Other indicators and fundamentals are suggesting that we are not yet at the end of the market cycle."
Others agreed but were slightly more cautious, including statistician Willy Woo, who on Friday warned that Bitcoin could be finishing the first of a "double top" price construction.
"Volatility is visibly lower this cycle," he summarized, adding that once cleared, the $1 trillion market cap level — corresponding to a Bitcoin price of around $53,600 — would "unlikely" be broken again.
Investors could be mistakenly linking the bank with the 2017 Bitcoin hard fork, causing a spike in price and trading action.
A long-forgotten Bitcoin (BTC) hard fork has surged almost 200% in a week — simply because traders are buying the wrong altcoin.
Bitcoin Gold (BTG), a relic from the 2017 forking season, traded at $113 on April 9 — the highest price since February 2018 — after 30% daily gains as trading volumes topped $250 million.
Bitcoin Gold piggybacks to 173% weekly gains
A curious contrast to an otherwise lackluster cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin Gold’s success appears to be not wholly genuine — but also not the fault of its holders or developers.
As Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday, a new Bitcoin fund from Brazillian investment bank BTG Pactual moved a step closer to launching this week after teaming up with the Winklevoss twins’ Gemini exchange for custody management.
While having nothing to do with Bitcoin Gold, the biggest Brazilian investment bank does share the altcoin’s ticker — and the coincidence was good enough for hungry buyers.
After the Gemini news broke, Bitcoin Gold saw a flurry of demand which at the time of writing shows no sign of abating. This, reactions argued, showed that the cryptocurrency industry was still very much in its nascent phase.
“We're so early that people buy Bitcoin Gold BTG, because there is a new fund called BTG Pactual,” podcast host Anita Posch warned Twitter users.
“No, it's not a cheaper Bitcoin!”
By contrast, Bitcoin Gold announcing an actual partnership in late March did hardly anything for price action.
Nothing to do with Bitcoin
Bitcoin Gold came about as one of the multiple hard forks of Bitcoin in 2017, the year that also spawned Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Bitcoin Diamond (BCD) and others.
Unlike their parent, the forks have achieved only limited success. As Cointelegraph recently reported, despite the broad uptick sweeping through altcoins more broadly, BCH, for example, continues to lose value in BTC terms.
Some of their proponents have adopted an aggressive marketing stance which positions the fork as Bitcoin itself, a misleading move which has likely also contributed to demand.
Cointelegraph reiterates that buying Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Cash or any cryptocurrency with a ticker other than BTC means that one holds an altcoin, not Bitcoin itself.
"I do wonder at this point whether Bitcoin is to be thought of in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.; it threatens fiat money but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar," Thiel had said in an appearance at the Nixon Seminar.
Asked whether this was a potential problem, Pompliano was quick to point out that Thiel was not an opponent of Bitcoin, but rather that it, like the internet, could have both positive and negative consequences for Washington should policymakers make ill-thought-out decisions.
"I think what we've got to understand is that Bitcoin is an open, decentralized protocol," he explained to CNBC's "Squawk Box" segment.
"Everyone in the world has an opportunity to use this, just like the internet... and so just because other countries, maybe adversial or not to the United States, are going to use it, it doesn't mean [Thiel] is taking an anti-Bitcoin stance; actually, it's quite the contrary."
The legal landscape surrounding Bitcoin in the U.S. remains a patchwork one, despite certain states, notably Wyoming and Florida, actively seeking to become a haven for its adoption.
"I think what [Thiel] is doing here is he's saying, 'Look, there's a global competition happening here and there are other countries who are going to try to use this to try to destabilize or financially attack the United States,'" Pompliano continued.
"What we need is for the United States to be the leader here; we need to embrace this, so we need to make sure that we use this technology to continue to be a leader on the global stage."
A familiar headache
Institutional and retail investor interest in cryptocurrency as a whole remains prominent thanks to higher prices this year.
Beneath those movements, however, a separate narrative continues to play out, one involving state-focused power shuffles for a piece of — specifically — the Bitcoin network's power.
This so-called "hash war" could yet fall into the hands of any state, including those targeted by U.S. sanctions in recent years such as Iran and Venezuela.
Following multiple failed attempts to crack resistance close to all-time highs, analysts were becoming wary of a further dip and a temporary halt to further price gains.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, described this week’s current floor of $56,760 as “not a convincing bottom.”
As reported on Wednesday, funding rates among trading platforms call for a shakeout of leveraged long positions from those overly bullish on a continuation. For Filbfilb, those rates remain “way too high,” he told subscribers of his Telegram trading channel.
Popular Twitter trader Cantering Clark meanwhile pointed to Bitcoin’s 20-week moving average (MA) — a classic “line in the sand” for price performance — still lingering at around $40,000.
“More fuel for why I think April-May puts a lid on $BTC until later in the year,” he commented on a comparative chart.
“Simple as it is, this 20 week MA with a 2 standard deviation band above. At some point, these meet. Either it comes to us or we come to it. Hard to imagine this takes plus much higher up.”
Macro turns favorable for Bitcoin bulls
Despite institutional interest continuing in recent weeks, fuelled by major new adoption announcements from banks, signs of a slowdown were also beginning to show on the day.
The Purpose Bitcoin ETF saw a slight reduction in its BTC holdings after consistent growth, with its assets under management dipping in tandem from highs of $976 million to $944 million.
Fellow institutional portal Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) maintained its negative premium, meanwhile, a phenomenon which has put pay to further Bitcoin accumulation since February.
But not everyone was wholly gloomy. For trader trader Crypto Ed, the ultimate market trajectory was clear.
“Not in a rush to get in a position,” he told Twitter followers on Thursday.
“54k first or up from here, both mean we're starting a strong 3rd leg and plenty of upside waiting for us. BTC will break 60k and finally go much higher.”
Beyond crypto, a buoyant outlook for United States stock markets coupled with a weakening dollar could further serve Bitcoin’s purpose in the short term.
“With excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic...U.S. economy will likely boom,” noted JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon in his annual shareholder newsletter earlier this week.
A second day of more substantial losses for the pair came as altcoins also began to reverse their earlier successes, with Ether (ETH) dropping below $2,000.
A look at trader behavior pointed to leveraged long positions in place at previous spot price, indicating belief that further upside is more likely than another correction. These positions, analyst Filbfilb believes, need to be liquidated before Bitcoin can make a meaningful attempt at new all-time highs.
The latest price action went some way to refreshing market composition — $2 billion in liquidations in the past 24 hours, $600 million of which in a single hour alone, according to data from monitoring resource Bybt.
"A large inflow to a whale wallet happened at $55172 on the 23rd of March," monitoring service Whalemap added, eyeing a possible floor.
"Lets see how price reacts to this level. Usually price bounces from such strong supports."
Altcoins reverse strong weekly start
On altcoins, strong performance was in jeopardy at the time of writing, with Ether back below its historic $2,000 marker and heading away from all-time highs.
XRP and Polkadot (DOT) were the biggest losers in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, shedding over 10% on the day. All but one of the top 50 tokens, excluding stablecoins, were in the red.
Commenting, popular trader Scott Melker blamed overly sensitive traders.
"Bitcoin sneezes and drops a few hundred dollars, edgy traders panic sell their alts like jabronis and Bitcoin Dominance rises. Good times," he tweeted.
"Reminder just how delicate these windows of alt coin trading are."
Alts remain tipped for a dramatic return to form in summer, with Filbfilb even arguing that the second incarnation of "Alt Season" is already here.
The largest cryptocurrency's 200% CAGR presents a serious challenge to even the most successful crypto business strategies.
The United States' biggest crypto exchange would have made more money by simply buying and holding Bitcoin (BTC) in 2013.
Data circulating on social media reveals that despite Coinbase's $800 million profits in Q1, the company would still be richer had it used its seed funding cash to buy BTC.
Coinbase profits lose out to 2013 hodlers
Ahead of its initial public offering (IPO) on April 14, Coinbase reported bumper revenue this week. At $1.8 billion, Q1 outperformed the entirety of 2020.
The numbers became an instant talking point as market participants weigh up the likely impact of the IPO launch. Other IPOs, including the recent Deliveroo sale, sparked sell-offs.
Amid sky-high valuations and the associated buzz, however, it appears that all Coinbase had to do in order to outperform was to buy Bitcoin.
Specifically, the exchange's $30 million seed funding in 2013 would be worth up to $2 billion had it been converted to BTC at the time.
By contrast, Coinbase's lifetime profits total to date are estimated to be somewhere between $780 million and $1.3 billion.
"Coinbase is going to list publicly in less than 10 days and reported blowout numbers today (~800m in profit on 1.8B on revenue)," developer Vijay Boyapati commented.
"Sounds great, but imagine how much more they'd be worth if they had held their profits in #Bitcoin instead of dollars for the last 8 years."
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate has topped 200%, and since April 2013, BTC/USD is up over 43,000%.
Bitcoin supply shortage stays real
Boyapati was touching on another, more controversial aspect of Coinbase's business model to come to light this year. For all its success, executives have always chosen to hold a fairly modest amount of BTC.
According to its recent filing with U.S. regulators, the exchange owns 4,486 BTC. By contrast, as Boyapati notes, newcomer MicroStrategy, despite not being an exchange, has bought in excess of 91,000 BTC since August last year, a stash that has doubled in USD terms for the company to date.
"It's almost as if Coinbase doesn't even believe in the industry in which they are one of the biggest players. Sad," he added.
Not everyone was convinced. Erik Voorhees, founder of crypto exchange service ShapeShift, argued that Coinbase's contribution to the cryptocurrency phenomenon made it incomparable to MicroStrategy.
"Imagine holding MicroStrategy in higher esteem that Coinbase. The latter struggled for eight years to build the most successful Bitcoin company in the world, serving 50 million people," he responded to a tweet from Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp.
"The former discovered Bitcoin in 2020 and bought a bunch... from Coinbase."
Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed a conspicuous spike in exchange outflows this week, a sign that long-term hodling and overall interest in buying Bitcoin is growing fast.
"Are we in the market cycle high? No," Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics service CryptoQuant, which published the data, commented, highlighting the difference between the current climate and traditional Bitcoin cycle tops.
"When the market reaches its peak, everyone deposits BTC to exchanges to sell."
Coinbase Pro, the professional trading arm of Coinbase, saw 12,000 BTC leave in a single transaction.
Despite being a matter of thousands of dollars away from all-time highs of $61,700, BTC/USD has been unable to drive sellers away for good. While thinning out, the last band of resistance has remained in place.
This slowdown in the 2020-2021 bull market has alarmed some, but professional analysts remain steadfast in their optimistic appraisals of the largest cryptocurrency.
Among them is Bloomberg Intelligence, which on Tuesday predicted that Q2 was more likely to deliver a further surge to $80,000 than a capitulatory move to $40,000.
"Adoption of the benchmark crypto as a global reserve asset has crossed the mainstream threshold, as we see it, and the market tide is rising. This scenario has switched the focal point of our 2021 analysis toward more-technical indicators from a wider range of fundamental and on-chain metrics in the past few years," a new report reads.
"A more likely 2Q scenario is to breach $60,000 resistance and head toward $80,000. A backup toward $40,000 support is less likely, in our view."
Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, who authored the report, is well known as a Bitcoin bull, and his perspective chimes with that of various analytics resources coming out with their own reasons to be confident in the market.
Continuing, he noted that in terms of a reserve asset, Bitcoin is usurping ground which used to be reserved for gold. The precious metal "will always have a place in jewelry and coin collections," he argued, "but most indicators point to an accelerating pace of Bitcoin replacing the metal as a store of value in investor portfolios."
"Bitcoin's fundamental and technical underpinnings are improving while gold's deteriorate," the report summarized.
Altcoin wake-up call sees gain
Meanwhile, altcoins had even more to celebrate than the average Bitcoin investor on the day as large-cap cryptocurrencies added to strong weekly growth.
Binance Coin, (BNB), the second-largest altcoin by market cap, gained 3.4% to hit $388, sealing weekly gains of over 33%.
"Large Cap Altcoins are waking up," popular Twitter trader Rekt Capital announced.
An accompanying graphic suggested that smaller altcoins would feel the benefit once larger coins had outperformed. As Cointelegraph reported, altcoins traditionally do best once Bitcoin has spent a suitable length of time consolidating after a bull run.
Bitcoin market cap dominance stood at 55.1% on the day, its lowest since May 2019.
Stock-to-flow creator PlanB suggests that now is the time to continue accumulating, with selling pressure fading fast.
Institutions should start buying Bitcoin (BTC) again, leading analyst PlanB has said as one exchange sees a fresh $250-million withdrawal.
In a tweet on Tuesday, PlanB argued that conditions were now right for buyers to continue accumulating BTC with confidence.
PlanB: “Probably time” for Q2 buying
BTC/USD had seen a lack of momentum over the weekend, culminating in a dive to near $56,000. With resistance near all-time highs of $61,700 now at its lowest since the time that level was first reached, it may now pay to be bullish.
In addition, multiple on-chain indicators suggest that sellers are exhausted. This capitalizes on an existing narrative that favors hodling, not short-notice trading or selling, as the prime strategy for Bitcoin investors.
“Now that all Pi-cycle, Wave, Rainbow and NUPL fans have sold their bitcoin, it is probably time for institutions to resume buying into Q2,” PlanB wrote, highlighting four indicators.
Of these, the so-called “Rainbow” price chart, which categorizes spot price in terms of investor sentiment, highly favored hodling this week, as well as buying more BTC at current prices.
An interesting comparison is with the top of the two previous bull markets in late 2013 and late 2017. Then, Rainbow signaled a bubble-like top forming, with the implication that hodlers should take profit. Since current readings are far from such a peak, the indicator suggests that the current price gains still have a long way to go before the bull cycle top is in.
As Cointelegraph reported, PlanB’s stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models call for $100,000 and more this year, with as much as $576,000 and higher hitting during the current halving cycle ending in 2024.
Big outflow spikes remain
Meanwhile, proof that institutions are still interested may already be in.
On Monday, professional client-focused exchange Gemini, saw $257 million in BTC leave its holdings in a 10-minute period.
These large outflows have characterized recent months and, along with the success of instruments such as the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, hint that demand shows no sign of stopping at near $60,000 per coin.
Across exchanges, reserves of BTC are still falling, down below 2.3 million as of this week.
According to data from on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode corroborated by Whalemap, buyer support more broadly is continuing to cement itself at $57,000, reducing the likelihood of deeper price dips.
No signs of selling as miners hoard their earnings and institutions keep piling into the latest Bitcoin exposure products to hit the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) is looking shaky at the start of a new week as $60,000 remains out of reach — could anything change in the coming days?
After an average weekend which failed to deliver the breakout that many had hoped for, Bitcoin is clinging to the mid-$50,000 range.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that can help shape future price performance.
Coinbase IPO a beacon in flat macro sea
Stock markets were unimpressive on Monday, April 5 with many Asian markets closed for public holidays and United States futures seeing little movement.
Following the Suez Canal debacle, oil was the only commodity with noticeable energy as a decision from OPEC+ countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
With a lack of momentum available, Bitcoin, therefore, had little to sustain any macro-influenced price run, and $60,000 resistance remained in place at the time of writing.
One major event that crypto analysts are eagerly waiting for, however, is Coinbase’s IPO set for April 14.
As Cointelegraph reported, the event is a milestone for the industry but could be accompanied by selling on launch day — a practice seen with other IPOs both old and new.
Elsewhere, U.S. bond yield rises remained a worry this week with their upward trajectory coinciding with a lack of progress for safe havens more widely.
“The repricing of inflation risk and U.S. rates, which will impact discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are being valued is a source of uncertainty,” Johanna Chua, chief economist for Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is at the “$3-5K stage” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin may be struggling for new support, but hodlers need to zoom out for the real picture.
That was the mood among analysts on Monday as BTC/USD headed lower toward $56,000.
After challenging $60,000 yet again late on Friday, the weekend saw bearish moves take over, culminating in a dip to $56,500.
A subsequent rebound was muted, with $57,000 forming a temporary focal point at the time of writing.
“The support resistance battle is intense,” on-chain data service Whalemap added about current behavior on Sunday.
“Levels from last week are working pretty well. Bitcoin is being capped by the $60,045 level pretty spot on. Is this the calm before the storm?”
For popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, however, there was little reason to be bearish on longer timeframes, which have the support of a tranche of positive on-chain data.
“This Bitcoin Bull Run is still far from overheated on multiple on-chain indicators,” he summarized.
“In comparison to 2017, it appears we're around the $3k-5k range.”
Clemente uploaded a comparative chart showing Bitcoin’s 2013 and 2017 price tops via the Puell Multiple, a classic metric that continues to signal that there is room for growth before a profit-taking sell-off can begin.
Such an early position in the bull cycle implies that the majority of upward price performance is yet to come for Bitcoin, something which would give credence to some of the higher year-end forecasts — $288,000 and more.
No one’s selling
On the topic of miner selling, this is a habit yet to reappear this month.
Despite Bitcoin lingering near all-time highs alongside record network hash rate and mining difficulty, there is no appetite to take profit on mined coins yet, data shows.
Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, the miner net position change has signalled miners retaining their newly-acquired coins over the past week.
By contrast, 2021 has been broadly marked by sell-offs, particularly in January as Bitcoin hit $40,000 for the first time. Sales have come to a halt since, however, regardless of continued — albeit slower — price gains.
“Still not selling, still accumulating, clear trend,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski commented on the Glassnode numbers.
In tandem with miners come exchanges, which continue to see their BTC balances decrease. Traders, then, are no more interested in selling at near $60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose ETF nears 17,000 BTC holdings
Conspicuously bullish this month are institutions — and they are putting their money where their mouth is, the latest figures say.
With open interest in Bitcoin futures markets near all-time highs, institution-grade products continue to see huge demand — albeit if the price is right.
As such, the first licensed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, keeps adding BTC in step with its assets under management (AUM).
As of April 5, Purpose held 16,462 BTC and $22.1 billion CAD ($17.56 billion USD) in AUM, having only launched its ETF two months ago.
As Cointelegraph reported, the pressure is likely on the U.S. to follow Canada in allowing an ETF onto the market, with such a product set to receive multiples of what Purpose has been able to draw from institutions in its home jurisdiction.
All this, however, could be coming at the expense of a stalwart institutional player, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In a battle over fees, GBTC may be losing interest to the more economical Purpose, which is one of multiple Bitcoin offerings undercutting the company on its management costs to clients.
Time to channel “situational awareness”
In a classic sign that the mantra of “the longer the perspective, the better” remains best for Bitcoiners, the popular stock-to-flow price forecasting model remains right on track for $288,000 and higher.
As noted by its creator, quant analyst PlanB on Sunday, the model’s “bull/bear recognition signal” is casually repeating its movements from 2013 and 2017.
An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD spot price following its predicted trajectory, with no sign that the model was being invalidated by short-term rumination below $60,000.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version which places Bitcoin within the context of other macro assets and tracks its transformation into a new standard.
“My favorite chart for Situational Awareness,” PlanB wrote in comments.
“S2FX for rough long term level forecast (white line), combined with accurate on-chain bull/bear recognition signal (color overlay).”
S2FX calls for a $288,000 price tag by the end of 2021, this forming an average price in the current halving cycle which will complete in roughly April 2024. The price peak before then, by contrast, could be double the average or $576,000, PlanB has said.
$60,000 may soon go the way of $20,000, filbfilb believes, but a potential sell-off around the Coinbase IPO means April could yet spark problems for bulls.
Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a price breakout after beating out volatility, but April may still produce a surprise sell-off.
In his latest market update on April 2, filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, said that he now expects upside to take over on BTC/USD.
BTC "threatening a breakout"
Bitcoin has recovered from its flash crash earlier in the week and briefly hit $60,000 overnight on Friday.
With seven-day gains still at 13%, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish in the short term now that consolidation looks set to conclude, filbfilb argues.
"With the weekend looming amidst a buoyant week; it’s difficult not to be optimistic," he summarized.
"I’m not thinking we will break out with as much ferocity, but I do think that we are on the brink of a strong breakout."
A comparison worth noting is what happened to Bitcoin when it originally broke through $20,000 resistance. A pattern of sudden breakouts following a protracted period of consolidation and regression could end up characterizing $60,000 as well.
"A few weeks ago I shared this similar price action/market structure as what was seen around the $20k level, which had a correction back to c.50k before a violent breakout," filbfilb continued.
"Since then price has almost perfectly played ball with this idea and is now threatening a breakout."
Bulls to reckon with Coinbase IPO, options expiry
This breakout nonetheless faces challenges in the coming weeks. Coinbase, fully prepared for its initial public offering (IPO) on April 14, may unwittingly spark downward price pressure.
As was the case this week with London-based Deliveroo, the debut of an IPO often results in selling at first, with the implications for Bitcoin being clear.
"We may see increased volatility around this time period of the 14th April and should pay particular attention to the time from here to options expiry at the end of the month," filbfilb concluded.
The end-of-month options expiry may also spook spot price temporarily, this having been very much in evidence at the end of March, when expiring options hit a record $6 billion. In the end, however, the actual event itself had no impact on BTC performance.
"Lots more bull market to come," statistician Willy Woo forecast.
Woo quoted on-chain analytics service Glassnode's active BTC supply data, which likewise suggests that Bitcoin can rise more before old hodlers sell for profit, causing a cycle top.
Regardless of Coinbase IPO's impact on the market this month, the analyst doesn't see Bitcoin closing below $46,400 anytime soon. He said:
"$46.4k is the price I'm modeling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close)."
Immediately, Dogecoin began rising, reaching a peak of $0.07 before cooling off but still retaining the gains.
Having began 2021 at just $0.004, DOGE's year-to-date gains as of Thursday stood at over 1,500%.
In a perhaps equally unlikely but genuine move, Latvian national carrier AirBaltic announced this week that passengers can now book flights using DOGE, along with several other altcoins. Bitcoin (BTC) has been accepted since 2014.
More than empty promises?
Musk, meanwhile, has found himself in hot water over his Twitter plugs, with reports emerging in February that the mogul was under investigation by U.S. authorities.
He is not the only one to fall foul of the establishment for doing so. As Cointelegraph reported, entrepreneur John McAfee was charged with a raft of offences last month, among which were his daily showcases of various cryptocurrencies on Twitter.
However, it was advertising Dogecoin in particular that got him into trouble, he claimed.
The concept of clamping down on alleged market manipulation remains a sore point among many lay investors in light of the Reddit GameStop debacle, which saw trading platforms prevent investors from transacting in a seemingly ad hoc fashion when their trading provoked heavy volatility.
No hint of bearish traditions returning to Bitcoin markets this year as 2021 bucks the trend for March to bring serious downside. Will Q2 deliver on expectations?
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its most successful Q1 in eight years as the Ides of March fail to materialize for hodlers.
Data published by analytics resource Bybt as Q1 2021 came to an end showed that BTC/USD gained more in the first three months of this year than any since 2013.
BTC price gains 103% in Q1
Despite not reclaiming all-time highs before Q2 began, Bitcoin put in a rare performance this March — normally, that month sees negative returns.
Not only did the largest cryptocurrency rise by nearly 30% this time around, it also posted its highest price in history of $61,700.
Zooming out, Q1 2021 saw only green candles each month for a combined quarterly rise of 103.1%. The last year to surpass this was also 2013 when the price was under $100, with a Q1 performance of 539%.
Anticipation for the next few months is already building. Q2 is traditionally the strongest time of the year for Bitcoin with only two years seeing negative returns, both less than 10%. The target to beat is from 2019, which delivered 159% gains, and is the best Q2 since 2013.
Right on track
Simply studying raw returns data thus fuels a sense that Bitcoin is performing exactly as expected in the year after a block subsidy halving, traditionally its strongest in each four-year halving cycle.
Comparing this cycle to previous ones — and 2021 to 2013 and 2017 — meanwhile shows that regardless of all-time highs, Bitcoin has actually done nothing out of the ordinary.
Uploading the latest version of a chart showing price movements after each halving, quant analyst PlanB put to rest concerns that BTC/USD has gained too quickly in recent months.
"Bitcoin currently in between 2013 and 2017 tracks," he summarized to Twitter followers.
As Cointelegraph reported, PlanB's stock-to-flow price models call for an average price of either $100,000 or $288,000 this cycle, with the former now likely too conservative as a top.
Cryptoassets will be available to Goldman investors at some point in Q2, comments from an incoming senior executive quoted by CNBC suggest.
Bitcoin (BTC) and some altcoins will soon be available to Goldman Sachs clients, according to a new mainstream media report.
Released by CNBC on March 31, comments from an interview with Mary Rich, global head of digital assets for the bank's private wealth management division, confirm plans to offer cryptoassets to investors.
Goldman exec: Crypto access coming in "near term"
The move will make Goldman the second major lender to open up the world of cryptocurrency to its clients, and comes weeks after a pioneering move by Morgan Stanley.
″We are working closely with teams across the firm to explore ways to offer thoughtful and appropriate access to the ecosystem for private wealth clients, and that is something we expect to offer in the near-term,” CNBC quoted Rich as saying.
Morgan Stanley's rollout is due to launch in April, with Goldman later in Q2. Both banks have the potential to bring large amounts of new capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem via participation in crypto-focused funds.
Continuing, Rich highlighted demand as a driving force behind Goldman's decision.
“There’s a contingent of clients who are looking to this asset as a hedge against inflation, and the macro backdrop over the past year has certainly played into that,” she added.
“There are also a large contingent of clients who feel like we’re sitting at the dawn of a new Internet in some ways and are looking for ways to participate in this space.”
Like many major banks, Goldman has changed its tune on Bitcoin this year, going from a solid skeptic to embracing the phenomenon — noticeably in contrast to central banks including the United States Federal Reserve.
"Eventually they will have to offer bitcoin services to everyone," Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano commented on the news.
BTC/USD gets instant boost after crash
Bitcoin price action reacted warmly to the news, passing $58,000 once more after Wednesday produced a flash crash of more than $2,000 in minutes.
As Cointelegraph reported, analysts remain little concerned about the lack of momentum, pointing to solid fundamentals and the need to shake out overleveraged positions before grinding towards all-time highs.
$68,000 and $73,000 are points of interest for a potential breakout.
At the time of writing, the losses were still mounting after the pair hit lows of $56,713 on Bitstamp.
"Exactly Bitcoin," trader Michaël van de Poppe reacted to what has become a familiar event on short timeframes for Bitcoin.
Previously, upside had been the focus for day traders as news from PayPal spawned a run-up to just below $60,000.
Those betting on a continuation of the bull run lost big on Wednesday, however, as the downturn liquidated long positions worth $600 million amid a 24-hour total wipeout of $1 billion.
For quant analyst PlanB, their demise was nonetheless beneficial, helping to rid the market of unwanted leverage and ensure more organic future rises. As Cointelegraph reported, similar events have occurred with both long and short positions in recent months.
"Beautiful stop loss hunting .. again," he commented on Twitter.
"Now that all leveraged longs are liquidated, we finally have room for breaking $60K in April."
Funding rates creep up
Meanwhile, indicators showed reason to believe that further price increases for Bitcoin would need some work.
Funding rates across derivatives platforms were higher on the day, reaching as high as 0.375% on Huobi, a classic sign that downward pressure is incoming.
The longer-term picture remains more than positive, with analysts pointing to $68,000 and $73,000 as the next hurdles to watch.
New numbers conclude that the best returns come from cutting through the noise and simply buying Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) has produced phenomenal returns most years, but when it comes to maximizing them, it's best just to buy and hodl.
That was the conclusion from new data circulating on social media this week, which casts serious doubt on the merits of following investment advice from mainstream media.
Don't believe the hype?
Under the microscope was CNBC, which in 2017 offered viewers an investment portfolio made up of 30% Bitcoin and 70% altcoins.
Four years later, those who invested $10,000 at the time now have around $52,300. Had they just bought and hodled Bitcoin, however, they would have over $140,000.
"The 30% #BTC allocation is responsible for 75% of the return," Twitter account StatsBTC, which uploaded the numbers, noted in comments.
CNBC's portfolio came courtesy of well-known pundit Brian Kelly, months before it hit then all-time highs of $20,000. Altcoins also saw peaks, months later in early 2018, with most only to crash and never recover.
Subsequently, the network gained an unenviable reputation for acting as a buy signal for investors — ironically by telling them not to invest in Bitcoin. The same fate has since befallen the likes of gold bug Peter Schiff.
As Cointelegraph reported, fellow host Jim Cramer, on the other hand, has embraced Bitcoin thanks to persuasion from Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano. His investment, thought to be around $500,000, has made Cramer "a ton of money," he said earlier this month.
All hail the king
Meanwhile, even a longer-term HODL strategy will have suffered from exposure to altcoins at the expense of its Bitcoin presence.
According to Bob Simon, owner of the StatsBTC account, $100 divided equally between Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin and Peercoin in March 2014 would now be worth $6,000. A Bitcoin-only punt, by contrast, would sell for $12,130.
"An equally weighted basket of the top 5 cryptocurrencies has underperformed Bitcoin by over 50% over the past 7 years," he summarized.
Analysts still believe that this coming summer will produce huge gains for altcoins, with one arguing that a peak price "Alt Season 2.0" has already begun.
According an exclusive report from Reuters, PayPal is set to release a formal announcement later on the day in which it will unveil its long-awaited cryptocurrency payment feature for U.S. customers.
The company caused a stir last year when it confirmed its venture into crypto, with the rollout ultimately set to extend to all users and 29 million merchants.
“This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet,” President and CEO Dan Schulman told Reuters.
While PayPal will not focus solely on Bitcoin, BTC price action reacted favorably to the reports, passing February's prior all-time high of $58,300 to manage $59,200 at the time of writing.
A look at orderbook data from Binance showed sellers still lined up between current spot price and historic highs of $61,700.
Continuing, PayPal referenced a watershed moment for cryptocurrencies in general, with Schulman describing them as a "legitimate funding source."
“We think it is a transitional point where cryptocurrencies move from being predominantly an asset class that you buy, hold and or sell to now becoming a legitimate funding source to make transactions in the real world at millions of merchants,” he added.
Woo: Bitcoin heading to "millions of dollars"
Long a skeptic, PayPal's official line now chimes with some of Bitcoin's most forward proponents. Among the most bullish long-term forecasts this week was that from statistician Willy Woo, who in an interview said that a single Bitcoin would ultimately become worth "millions of dollars."
"There's no way that Bitcoin's going to stop at the market cap of gold, which is $10 trillion; it's going to go a lot higher, which means that we're going to be going into the millions of dollars per coin," he told Real Vision's Laura Shin.
Also featuring was veteran trader Peter Brandt, who in a now widely-circulated comment said that he had completely changed his perspective on Bitcoin.
"My mindset has changed... from bitcoin as a trade to bitcoin as a measure of wealth," he said.