Bitcoin price ‘worst-case scenario’ is now $7,000 — trader Tone Vays

$9,000 would be the ideal “buy the dip” opportunity, says Vays, with $7,000 soon to form Bitcoin’s untested 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin (BTC) hitting $7,000 is now the “worst-case scenario,” veteran trader Tone Vays said on Sep. 23. 

In the latest episode of his Market Pulse YouTube series, Vays said he was looking for a BTC price bottom of $9,000.

Vays: $9,000 BTC price is “very good buy the dip” opportunity

BTC/USD has maintained $10,000 support this week but has so far failed to reclaim higher levels after its fall from $11,000 several days ago. 

“If we break down, I think $9,000 is a very good ‘buy the dip,’” Vays said.

“What is my worst case scenario low point if we break down? My worst case scenario is $7,000.”

Vays added that $9,000 for him was the “most realistic” outcome of a bearish trend taking hold of Bitcoin markets.

“The longer Bitcoin stays above $10,000, the more bullish Bitcoin is,” he continued.

“Consistency on the way up is bullish; consistency on the way down is bearish.”

Bitcoin has focused on $10,000 in a way which is bullish compared to its bottom of $3,600 in March, but less convincing versus recent highs of $12,500. Reclaim $12,000, however, and for Vays, “the sky’s the limit.”

BTC/USD 1-month price chart

BTC/USD 1-month price chart. Source: Coin360

Downside risk may be no more than 35%

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts are forming consistently more bullish prognoses for Bitcoin, even if short-term price action contains further downside.

This week, quant analyst PlanB highlighted the cryptocurrency’s 200-week moving average, which has never been broken as support, as proof that a realistic price floor is now $6,700. Next month, that level will increase to sit in line with Vays’ $7,000 prediction.

According to Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, however, for the time being, BTC/USD has avoided losing the support that would open up the prospect of retesting the CME futures gap at $9,600.

Still in play from July, the gap is the last noticeable short-term price draw at lower levels from futures, with the only other lying much higher at $16,000.

Bitcoin 200-week moving average hints price will never go below $6.7K

Rising by $200 each month, the 200-week moving average has formed an implied BTC price floor since Bitcoin first appeared in 2009.

Bitcoin (BTC) speculators waiting for a BTC price drop of even 35% will probably be waiting forever, new data shows.

In a tweet on Sep. 22, quant analyst PlanB noted that Bitcoin will break the habit of a lifetime if it goes lower than $6,700.

PlanB tracks historical BTC price floor

PlanB was referencing the 200-week moving average (200MA) for BTC/USD. A popular tool in his work, the 200MA has never been broken during Bitcoin price downtrends.

As of Tuesday, the level equated to $6,700 and continues to rise by around $200 every month.

As long as historic behavior continues as it has done since Bitcoin’s 200th week of existence, $6,700 will now form a definitive price floor.

“BTC 200WMA never goes down. BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA,” PlanB confirmed earlier in September when the figure stood at $6,600.

He added that in March 2017, Bitcoin saw a “struggle” to clear the significant $1,000 mark for good. After succeeding, however, all-time highs of $20,000 arrived by the end of the year.

This month, meanwhile, Cointelegraph noted that significant buy support from whales lays far higher, at $8,800.

Bitcoin price vs. 200-week moving average historical chart

Bitcoin price vs. 200-week moving average historical chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

93% bullish on Bitcoin price in 2020

As Cointelegraph also reported, PlanB recently called for BTC/USD to begin climbing towards $100,000 as part of his research. His stock-to-flow family of Bitcoin price forecasting models has made highly bullish predictions about the current four-year halving cycle, which ends in 2024. 

Bitcoin should be in line to trade at an average $288,000 by that point — an “order of magnitude” more than at present, but so far, stock-to-flow has charted BTC price rises with complete accuracy and its methodology is yet to be disproven.

Meanwhile, a survey about the future of Bitcoin price action published following the 200MA update has attracted 14,000 responses. 

PlanB’s Bitcoin price Twitter survey as of Sep. 23

PlanB’s Bitcoin price Twitter survey as of Sep. 23. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

The majority — 59.1% at press time — is bullish about Bitcoin over the next year, and also favors BTC over other cryptocurrencies. In total, 92.8% of respondents are bullish when it comes to BTC/USD.

Earth needs Bitcoin as economy hits ‘debt saturation point’ — Keiser

Earth is reaching a historic “inflection point,” Keiser warns after Singapore’s central bank admits that more debt is not an option for anyone.

The world now has so much debt that, for the first time ever, it is impossible to add more, says Max Keiser.

On the latest edition of his Keiser Report TV show on Sep. 22, the RT host warned that central banks were responsible for global debt reaching a new “inflection point.”

Keiser on debt: “We’re at saturation point”

Together with co-host Stacy Herbert, Keiser referred to comments from Singapore’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which last week warned that copying economic recovery methods after World War Two would not work in 2020.

Central banks worldwide have intervened in markets, buying equities and other assets in a highly controversial move designed to limit the economic impact of Covid-19 and its lockdowns.

“First, it’s quite obvious that you can’t keep increasing your debts,” MAS chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam said.

“But I don’t believe that the new higher levels of debt that many countries are now moving towards are going to be sustainable without imposing significant costs on growth as well as equity within their societies.”

The United States’ national debt alone has ballooned to $26.7 trillion this year, up $4 trillion since June 2019.

“There is no capacity for the Earth’s economy to carry any more debt; we’re at the saturation point,” Keiser summarized.

Regarding the consequences for increasingly indebted countries, he said that ordinary consumers would simply foot the bill from now on:

“Now, every dollar that these central banks print will go directly into consumer price index inflation — and you’ll see it at the cash register immediately, and that’s going to incredible social unrest[.]”

In the 1940s, states which had built up debts from combat were able to inflate them away. This time, Herbert said, there were so many insignificant gig economy jobs that wages would not follow price rises, leading to the kind of gap between the elite and the rest of society that Keiser has termed “neo-feudalism.”

Federal Reserve balance sheet 10-year chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve balance sheet 10-year chart. Source: Federal Reserve

MicroStrategy and Bitcoin low-time-preference business

Keiser has long championed Bitcoin (BTC) as an escape route from the knock-on effects of fiat inflation.

With its fixed, unalterable emission and decentralized network, Bitcoin represents the antithesis of centrally-controlled money. 

BTC/USD has shown to rise in step with central banks’ inflating balance sheets, but remains susceptible to U.S. dollar performance, Cointelegraph reported.

“Bitcoin, like Gold, is inversely correlated to the USD — *not* the stock market,” Keiser pointed out on Sep 22. “Don’t be fooled by randomness.”

Beyond its technical prowess, Bitcoin also promotes so-called low-time-preference living — saving money, safe in the knowledge that its value will not be inflated away over time.

As Saifedean Ammous explains in his popular book, “The Bitcoin Standard,” this ultimately allows for better and quicker advancement of society in time than simply spending money as quickly as possible on as much as possible.

Keiser and Herbert noted that MicroStrategy’s decision to put over $400 million of cash reserves into Bitcoin was proof of the low-time-preference mindset encroaching on big business.

New report says Bitcoin price in ‘more sustainable uptrend’ than 2019

2020 is showing that investors are more skewed to hodling than speculating, says Delphi Digital, in line with various findings from the past few months.

Bitcoin (BTC) hitting its highest in over a year was different from the 2019 bull run because exchange balances fell, a new report says.

Published on Sep. 21 and seen by Cointelegraph, Delphi Digital’s Bitcoin Outlook highlights unique trends in BTC price action.

Report: Bitcoin hodlers now have “longer time horizons”

According to the three researchers who compiled the report, Bitcoin reaching $12,500 last month had little in common with its run to $13,800 in 2019.

This is because exchange balances at the time increased, while this year, they continued falling despite price rises. As such, overall selling pressure among traders and investors is less this time around.

“Unlike the 2019 price uptrend, which coincided with BTC stock increasing, this current trend has seen a divergence between BTC stock and price,” the researchers argue. 

“This suggests a more sustainable move upwards for BTC, in comparison to that of 2019 as data indicates a holder base with longer time horizons.”

The findings chime with other recent research into hodler behavior, with on-chain analyst CryptoQuant reaching similar conclusions regarding exchange balances.

Bitcoin held on exchanges has declined from all-time highs of 2.96 million BTC in February to press-time levels of 2.59 million BTC. BTC/USD is trading in a similar range to that date — $10,430 versus $9,580 on Feb. 20.

Bitcoin exchange balances 6-month chart

Bitcoin exchange balances 6-month chart. Source: Glassnode

“Healthy” BTC demand laps up miner outflows

Continuing, Delphi notes that other factors could serve to change hodlers’ habits. For example, they could be using stablecoins as collateral for trades or simply leaving BTC on exchanges instead of making the effort to store them in private wallets.

“When price increases and BTC stock decreases, this indicates a BTC accumulation trend,” the researchers nonetheless state.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin volatility did produce brief periods of unrest for miners despite network fundamentals now sitting at all-time highs.

Inflows of BTC from mining pools to exchanges have seen several spikes in recent months, but as time goes on, Delphi notes, their impact is becoming less of an issue.

“On September 13th, we saw the largest daily yearly inflow coming in at 1114 BTC. Notably, this did not trigger negative price action,” the report adds. 

“The recent large inflows (marked by the green bubbles) were met with sufficient bids, indicating a healthy demand side.”

On Twitter, Paul Burlage, one of the researchers, drew specific attention to the growth in Bitcoin whales now moving in tandem with price growth.

Bitcoin whale vs. price growth trends

Bitcoin whale vs. price growth trends. Source: Delphi Digital

Going forward, threats to Bitcoin stability notably come from outside, with both safe havens and traditional macro assets hinging on strength in the U.S. dollar.

Bitcoin price hits 1-week low as US dollar currency index aims higher

Renewed bullish behavior in DXY spells trouble for inversely correlated BTC/USD, underscoring the relationship between the two indices.

Bitcoin (BTC) reacted to fresh strength in the U.S. dollar on Sep. 21 to follow stocks downward and move away from $11,000.

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sept. 7

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sept. 7. Source: Coin360

DXY surge spells BTC price weakness

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $10,570 on Monday, its lowest in a week.

Sunday saw a rejection of resistance at $11,200, with Bitcoin subsequently shedding around 3% on the day as macro markets wobbled at the open. At press time, BTC/USD hovered at just above $10,600. 

BTC/USD 1-day price chart

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: Coin360

As Cointelegraph reported, a basket of factors — coronavirus, central bank economic policy and a separate scandal involving major institutions — is creating uncertainty this week. 

The $11,200 rejection was anticipated by Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who warned that Bitcoin was unlikely to find the strength to flip the previous support level back from resistance.

At the same time, DXY edged past 93 on Monday, with Bitcoin’s corresponding fall characterizing continued inverse correlation.

U.S. dollar currency index 1-week hourly chart

U.S. dollar currency index 1-week hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

HSBC stock hits 25-year low: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin grapples with $11,000 as money laundering engulfs the banking sector again and coronavirus spoils stocks sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week still looking for $11,000 support as macro markets wobble over coronavirus and banks’ criminal activities.

Cointelegraph highlights five factors that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.

Banks face money laundering deluge

While central banks grappled with dramatic shifts in United States economy policy, fresh leaked files showed yet more evidence of largescale money laundering.

A huge trove of documents from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), dubbed the FinCEN Files, found its way to investigative journalists throughout the world this month, and the focus was clear: illegal activities gone unnoticed.

One example involves HSBC, which continued allowing funds to move through its accounts despite being notified of their criminal origins. The bank’s shares were down to 25-year lows on Monday.

Other revelations include much activity linked to the Russian elite using United Kingdom banks to avoid Western sanctions.

Bitcoin proponents were quick to call out the irony of the situation, given the history of many banks in the files claiming that Bitcoin itself facilitated crime.

A pair of advertisements in Hong Kong for Bitcoin and HSBC ironically summarized the status quo, with statistician Willy Woo tweeting:

“‘Be your own Bank. The story continues’. HSBC on point!”

Central banks around the world continue to deal with coronavirus fallout, meanwhile, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet to discuss its response — and possible implications for the euro — this week.

As Cointelegraph reported, the Bank of England (BoE) is currently entertaining the possibility of introducing negative interest rates for the first time in its history.

Stocks down as coronavirus weighs

Trading in Asia opened on a weaker note Monday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index down 1.5% — driven by HSBC shares hitting their lowest since 1995.

A similar picture came from Europe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 1.6%. In the United States prior to the opening bell, S&P 500 futures were down 1%.

The U.S. faces a mixed bag of woes as politicians struggle to agree on a fresh coronavirus stimulus package and elections draw nearer.

This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, after last week’s speech about the central bank’s extraordinary economic policy progress left many skeptical about its capabilities.

“We do have concerns down the stretch about the markets reacting poorly to some of the uncertainties facing us — the election, potentially around Covid-19, and the fact that we don’t have a stimulus package yet,” Rebecca Felton, senior market strategist at global asset manager Riverfront Investment Group, told Bloomberg.

“I would have to think we could be volatile to the downside here.”

Any combination weighing on the strength of the U.S. dollar is currently a boon for Bitcoin, continuing its inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY).

On the day, safe-haven gold was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1,953.

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin fundamentals hit new all-time highs

There was more good news for Bitcoin analysts eyeing network strength this week as difficulty and hash rate stayed at all-time highs. 

The difficulty, arguably Bitcoin’s most important fundamental feature, increased 11.35% at the latest automatic readjustment on Sunday.

According to estimates from BTC.com, the next readjustment in 12 days’ time is already set to add another 10.2%.

The fresh upside underscores fierce competition among Bitcoin miners to gain block rewards — rewards which remain unalterably constant at 6.25 BTC per block regardless of how many are competing. 

Hash rate, meanwhile, an estimate of the total computing power dedicated to the Bitcoin network, hit a fresh record of 143 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Saturday.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 6-month chart

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 6-month chart. Source: Blockchain

A popular theory suggests that price bullishness follows fundamentals, and miners’ belief in Bitcoin’s long-term profitability is now clear to see.

$11,000 proves tough for BTC 

BTC/USD stayed rangebound over the weekend, failing to flip $11,000 into any form of a support level. 

The ranging behavior continued a pattern from last week, during which Bitcoin nonetheless managed to exit higher from fundamental support at $10,000. 

For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, keeping $11,000 and the higher $11,200 as resistance means that Bitcoin will stay in the $10,000 zone for the time being.

“Given that we’ve got this rangebound construction, we have to check the lower timeframes, in which the most likely scenario is a case of testing the upper resistance zone of $11,200 to $11,400, and given the significance of this resistance zone, it’s unlikely that we’re going to break through it in one go,” he summarized in a Twitter update Saturday.

BTC/USD subsequently fulfilled the prophecy, seeing rejection at just below $11,200 on Sunday.

In terms of further downside potential, should lower support give way, the open CME futures gap at $9,600 remains in play. Analysts stayed divided over whether the recent dip to $9,800 could be classed as sufficient to “close” the gap — Bitcoin may attempt to hit it definitively or leave the recent lows as a bottom. 

Investors recover from “fear” of $9,800

According to the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index metric, investor sentiment is broadly recovering from the trip below $10,000.

On Monday, the Index, which takes a basket of indicators to measure investor sentiment, was in the “neutral” range of 48/100.

Previously, as Bitcoin circled $12,000, it measured almost its highest score ever — a warning, creators say, that the market is due for a correction. 

Once that happened, a sense of overselling entered, slowly balancing out through the past week to leave the Index at its current reading.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 1-month chart

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 1-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

MicroStrategy CEO says ‘Bitcoin scales just fine as store of value’

Arguably the biggest Bitcoin adoption move of 2020 turned 78,338 off-chain transactions into just 18 on-chain ones, with MicroStrategy praising scalability.

Bitcoin (BTC) as a store of value “scales just fine,” the CEO of the company that just purchased 38,250 BTC has said.

In a tweet on Sep. 17, Michael Saylor revealed more information about MicroStrategy’s dramatic launch into Bitcoin.

Saylor praises Bitcoin as a scalable store of value

Continually making the headlines since its first buy in August, MicroStrategy has now swapped over $400 million of spare capital from USD to BTC.

An interview between Saylor and Morgan Creek Digital co-founder, Anthony Pompliano this week underscored his commitment, having previously been highly skeptical of Bitcoin.

Now, his belief in the technical fundamentals of the network — and its future — is certain. The problem of scaling to meet demand, for example, is a non-issue for Saylor thanks to off-chain transactions. 

MicroStrategy’s initial buy-in — 21,454 BTC for $250 million — was a case in point. 

“We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions,” he wrote.  

“#Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.”

Woo: 2021 may be the year of MicroStrategy Bitcoin trailblazers

Continuing, Saylor described a status quo where on-chain transactions for major investors will remain a rarity:

“If #Bitcoin is treated as a treasury reserve asset, based on our model, 99.98% of all transactions will be off-chain, and assets-at-risk will be in cold storage 99.92% of the time.”

Off-chain transactions via solutions such as the Lightning Network allow Bitcoin transaction volume to increase without adding volume to the blockchain and raising fees to appeal to miners.

In his popular book, The Bitcoin Standard, Saifedean Ammous likewise argues that off-chain activity will become the norm once Bitcoin gains a much larger user base.

That could happen sooner rather than later. Following the Pompliano interview, statistician Willy Woo picked up on Saylor highlighting the world’s 35,000 publicly traded companies that have spare cash reserves of $5 trillion.

“I make out if others follow MicroStrategy's lead and even just 1% of that capital finds its way into BTC, that's enough to blow Bitcoin cap to $2T,” he tweeted.

Woo added that given MicroStrategy took six months to approve its shift to Bitcoin, any copycat moves would begin to surface in 2021.

Bank of England talks negative interest rates in best ‘ad’ for Bitcoin

Bitcoin hodlers could not ask for more, says Tone Vays as the U.K. central bank looks for protection against Brexit and coronavirus fallout.

Bitcoin (BTC) is getting its best “advertisement” once more as another major central bank floats the idea of charging people to save their money.

As Bloomberg reported quoting minutes of a meeting held Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) has become the latest central bank to discuss negative interest rates.

Negative rates “would drive BTC adoption”

According to the results of the meeting, the BoE will enter discussions with banking regulators over negative rates, which effectively mean lending institutions, and, hence, savers must pay to store cash.

The reason is the impact of the coronavirus lockdown on the economy, along with the looming prospect of Brexit, deal or no deal.

“The bank is leaving all options on the table, due to elevated uncertainty,” one analyst told the publication in light of the news.

The pound slid against major currencies Thursday, as policymakers further confirmed that they had voted to keep interest rates at 0.1% for the time being. 

Bank of England balance sheet chart (GBP)

Bank of England balance sheet chart (GBP). Source: TradingEconomics/ Bank of England

Bitcoin proponents immediately seized on the BoE’s troubles, arguing that such a policy simply undermined both fiat currency’s reputation and its own position.

“Wow, the Bank of England discussing negative interest rates. If they adopt this, they would be paying you to borrow,” Tyler Winklevoss wrote on Twitter. 

“You couldn’t buy a better advertisement for Bitcoin but u can take their money and go long bitcoin.”

Veteran trader Tone Vays had similar thoughts. 

“I don't think any Bank would pay you to borrow but they will charge you to store/save your money at the Bank, what more can a Bitcoin Hodler as for!” he said, responding to Winklevoss. 

“Thanks Bank of England, you will help drive $BTC adoption.”

The Bank, bailouts and Bitcoin

Others took aim at the interim interest rate decision.

“One of the most important prices in our society is determined by vote,” Christopher Bendiksen, head of research at digital asset investment strategist Coinshares, tweeted. 

“You read that right. In 2020, 8 middle-aged men and one woman literally come together several times a year to determine the price of credit. This will seem unbelievably archaic to our descendants.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the BoE is particularly infamous in Bitcoin circles, the United Kingdom government bailing out the banking sector en masse on the eve of Bitcoin’s birth in 2009. An article from the national newspaper, The Times, was even included in the Bitcoin genesis block.

More recently, central banks’ reactions to coronavirus have fuelled the idea that Bitcoin will increasingly function as a hedge against fiat.

This week, the United States Federal Reserve fielded queries about its plans to overshoot inflation targets, a process that would weaken the U.S. dollar and provide a likely further boost to safe havens such as gold and Bitcoin.

For its part, the BoE had said that negative interest rates would be “damaging” to the U.K. economy as recently as last month.

The European Central Bank, or ECB, has administered negative rates since 2016, but such a move would be a historical first for the U.K.

Bitcoin speculators hit all-time lows as Grayscale says BTC like 2016

Data says hodlers are gaining and speculators are vanishing from Bitcoin, with one commentator arguing that the bull run is “just beginning.”

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are beating out speculators in a sign that the cryptocurrency’s bull run is “just beginning,” data suggests.

Part of asset manager Grayscale’s Valuing Bitcoin report issued this month, the Hodler vs. Speculator Index (HSI) is showing highly bullish divergence.

Grayscale notes “similar structure to early 2016”

HSI measures Bitcoin activity from wallets in order to give an impression of how network participants are using BTC — and market sentiment as a result.

The data, compiled from on-chain analytics resource Coin Metrics, labels coins which have not moved in one to three years as “hodler” coins. “Speculator” coins are those which have moved at some point in the past 90 days.

The resulting comparison shows that, as of August, speculator coins were disappearing, while hodler coin numbers were spiking.

“This chart looks potentially promising for Bitcoin, as there are a growing number of Holders relative to a small number of Speculators in the market,” author Phil Bonello commented. 

“Notice the similar structure to that of early 2016.”

Bitcoin Hodler vs. Speculator Index historical chart

Bitcoin Hodler vs. Speculator Index historical chart. Source: Grayscale/ Coin Metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts have already argued that the current state of Bitcoin echoes 2016, roughly 18 months before its all-time highs of $20,000.

With a raft of technical indicators all flashing green, the bullish potential has not gone unnoticed by many. 

“Percent of Bitcoin ‘Holders’ peaking and ‘Speculators’ bottoming, another great indicator that the Bull run is just beginning,” Charles Edwards, founder of fellow asset manager Capriole, added on Twitter about HSI.

1-year dormant BTC beats record

The Grayscale report meanwhile delivers further insights into the strength of Bitcoin investor resolve in 2020. 

Despite highly varied price action over the past twelve months, there is a keen desire to keep BTC as an investment and not trade or sell it at any price up to the current yearly high of $12,000.

“It’s also worth noting that the Bitcoin blockchain reveals that there has never been a higher level of Bitcoin owned for more than one year,” Bonello notes. 

“This metric indicates a strong conviction in Bitcoin by its current investor base. While this is a supply-side metric, it also demonstrates the demand for Bitcoin’s use case as a store of value — rather than trading, it appears investors are interested in holding Bitcoin despite its volatility.”

Bitcoin 1-year dormant supply historical chart

Bitcoin 1-year dormant supply historical chart. Source: Grayscale

The store-of-value proposition continues to gain publicity this month as MicroStrategy, which purchased over 21,000 BTC in mid August, confirmed it had upped its holdings to the equivalent of over $400 million.

These 10 Bitcoin price indicators say BTC is now a buy or ‘strong buy’

An almost clean bullish sweep for on-chain indicators suggests that now is an ideal entry point for buyers, says data analyst firm CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin (BTC) is a firm “buy” according to a range of on-chain indicators that are flashing bullish this week.

Collected by on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant, a total of ten indicators are currently telling investors to enter the market now.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin indicators “healthy”

Of the eleven items that form CryptoQuant’s market overview, eight are classified as “buy” and two as “strong buy” for Bitcoin. Only one is “neutral,” while none are “sell.”

“Long-term $BTC on-chain indicators look healthy,” CryptoQuant summarized on Twitter.

The two strongest buy signals come from the so-called stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) and exchange stablecoin reserves.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, both indicators have already given bullish hints about trader sentiment, and continue despite mixed price activity.

SSR refers to the purchasing power of stablecoin holders relative to the Bitcoin price. Even at $11,400 late last month, buyer support was strong, and conditions remain ideal at current price levels.

Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio historical chart. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC technicals are in the green

The indicators add to the overall positive impression being given by Bitcoin’s technicals this month. 

In terms of network fundamentals, hash rate and difficulty are both either at or shortly set to hit all-time highs, underscoring miners’ long-term optimism.

This week, statistician Willy Woo pointed to several other aspects showing that price action should now be upwards rather than downwards.

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models, meanwhile called for BTC/USD to begin its next long-term leg up from $10,000 towards $100,000, pointing to the latest incarnation of his metric.

The only cautious words have come from those concerned about non-technical factors, such as global macro markets. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” warned on Tuesday that the discovery of a successful coronavirus vaccine alone would be enough to “crash” Bitcoin and other safe havens, at least in the near term.

Covid-19 vaccine will spark Bitcoin ‘crash’ — Rich Dad Poor Dad author

Robert Kiyosaki calls the United States “bankrupt” as national debt bears $27 trillion, listing Bitcoin among the three “best” long-term investments.

Bitcoin (BTC) will “crash” when the world finds a coronavirus vaccine that works, popular author Robert Kiyosaki claims.

In a tweet on Sep. 15, Kiyosaki, famous for his book, “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” warned that a functional solution to Covid-19 would send safe-haven assets plummeting.

Kiyosaki: vaccine “crash” will be Bitcoin buying opportunity

“What happens when vaccine is proven?  Gold silver Bitcoin will CRASH. Buying opportunity,” he wrote. 

Continuing, Kiyosaki argued that the virus was masking the “real” issues at stake for the United States economy in particular. With $26.7 trillion in debt according to monitoring resource U.S. National Debt Clock, much of which appeared via stimulus measures since Covid-19 hit, the country is now “bankrupt.”

“Real problem NOT Pandemic. Real problem massive US debt. US Bankrupt. $28 T balance sheet debt. $120 T off balance sheet social obligations,” the tweet reads.  

“Gold silver Bitcoin best investments long term.”

The argument in favor of long-term investment in Bitcoin has become more and more public since March’s cross-asset market crash.

Despite current strength, the U.S. dollar is broadly seen as being in a downward spiral which will only worsen thanks to Federal Reserve policies — also ostensibly intended to counter coronavirus fallout.

As Cointelegraph reported, weakness in the U.S. dollar currency index has buoyed Bitcoin and gold in recent months, underscoring inverse correlation which remains a major consideration for traders.

On Wednesday, the Fed is set to deliver fresh comments on the future of its market participation, further raising the prospect of dollar volatility.

Another trend highlights increases in BTC/USD as the debt amassed by central banks worldwide ballooned this year.

Macro asset returns in 2020

Macro asset returns in 2020. Source: Skew

Keiser in fresh Warren Buffett warning

Kiyosaki meanwhile remains an outspoken supporter of Bitcoin, whatever the weather. In August, he urged Twitter followers to buy the cryptocurrency before a “major banking crisis” appeared.

Dollar weakness and Fed meddling in the economy likewise formed the impetus behind his advice. Warren Buffett exiting U.S. banking investments and buying gold was another alarm bell for the author.

“What’s Warren Buffet doing? Warren Buffett has a huge cash position, he’s recently moved into gold stock, which is a very different kind of investment than he’s used to making over the past decades, and as of this week he’s now got a big position in Japanese stocks,” RT host Max Keiser, who often presents similar conclusions about the economy, continued in an interview this weekend.

“He’s getting out of the dollar; I think that’s pretty clear. That should be a red flag to folks out there — that one of the world’s most successful investors is getting out of the dollar.”

Also in August, Keiser forecast that Bitcoin would hit a new all-time high in the near future as the current economic situation plays out.

Don’t expect another Bitcoin price ‘catastrophic dump’ — Analyst

Bitcoin’s macro landscape is making current price levels look like a good buy-in, Willy Woo suggests as support stacks up at $9,600.

Bitcoin (BTC) price trajectory is looking to favor bulls going forward, statistician Willy Woo believes as the market nears $11,000.

In a series of tweets on Sept. 14, Woo highlighted strength in market composition and said that current price levels could be a useful entry point for investors.

Woo: Little chance of “catastrophic” BTC price dump

“Another impulse of coins changing hands has completed, the next directional move over the coming weeks is likely upwards,” he summarized.

“It’s very unlikely we’ll see any kind of a catastrophic dump in price from here.”

Woo was referring to on-chain activity on the Bitcoin network seeing a spike in recent weeks as BTC/USD fell to local lows of $9,800. 

Monday saw a bounce higher toward $10,800 — a price point that analysts have already said forms a crucial pivot for further bullish momentum.

Bitcoin on-chain activity vs. BTC price 6-month chart

Bitcoin on-chain activity vs. BTC price 6-month chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Countering their optimism is the chance that Bitcoin will still drop to fill the lower of two gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market at $9,600. Woo likewise noted that there was a desire for this to happen, with significant buyer support around that level.

“I’m still cautious of another short term dump to fill the gap but so far it’s looking like it’s been front-run for liquidity which is strongly bullish if we break resistance here,” he continued. 

“There’s a lot of bids in the spot order books wanting to snap up the gap in the mid-high 9000s.”

Fundamentals reinforce bullish chances

As Cointelegraph reported, various sources are demanding a fresh shake-up in BTC price action after the rejection at $12,000.

For PlanB, the quant analyst behind the stock-to-flow family of price forecasting models, the time is right for Bitcoin to follow historical precedent and launch toward $100,000.

That level represents an order of magnitude change, similar to how BTC/USD transformed from $100 to $1,000 and then from $1,000 to $10,000 in 2017.

Network fundamentals support long-term strength continuing, with the hash rate reaching all-time highs and difficulty set to follow this week. Woo agrees, noting that Bitcoin’s difficulty behavior is decidedly on the bullish rather than the bearish side.

Bitcoin difficulty ribbon vs. price historical chart

Bitcoin difficulty ribbon vs. price historical chart. Source: Woobull

“Zooming out to the mid macro (months ahead), we’re in a really nice zone of Difficulty Ribbon compression, post halvening (red verticals), this is quite a reliable indicator of bullishness,” he wrote.

Woo created the difficulty ribbon indicator in August of last year. It captures the relationship between the rate of increases in difficulty and miner selling — and hence selling pressure in BTC — giving an idea of when long-term investors should enter the market.

‘Time to go up’ — Bitcoin price due for a push to $100,000, says PlanB

The original stock-to-flow model is calling time on Bitcoin’s phase at around $10,000, and it’s not been wrong so far.

It’s high time for Bitcoin (BTC) to begin its next significant price rise, the creator of one of the best-known BTC price models says.

In a tweet on Sep. 14, quant analyst PlanB highlighted increasing signs that BTC/USD is due to repeat historical gains.

PlanB on BTC price: “Time to go up”

Referring to the original incarnation of his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, PlanB said that the time was right to begin an order of magnitude step up.

“This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used),” he wrote alongside a new chart.

“You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up.”

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model as of Sep. 14. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model as of Sep. 14. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

The original S2F chart differs from the more recent stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which incorporates macro factors and introduces “phases” in Bitcoin’s metamorphosis as an asset. It calls for an average BTC price of $288,000 before 2024.

Since the May halving, Bitcoin has put in “red dots” on the model, which have run to expectations, if not in a similar fashion to what happened after the 2016 halving.

Interestingly, Cointelegraph market analyst Michael Van de Poppe is also seeing the same pattern emerge from a technical analysis perspective.

“If you'd like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted on Sep. 14.

“Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it's likely we'll see that too.”

When asked where the source of funds will come from in order to propel BTC/USD towards $100,000, PlanB highlighted a blog post about S2F and confirmed that his hypothesis remained valid.

It would be “silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates [..], countries with predatory governments [..], billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”

Analysts eye safe haven bull run

Optimism on safe havens continues this week beyond Bitcoin. As Cointelegraph reported, hopes are high that gold will react positively to Wednesday’s policy update from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Continuing, Mike McGlone, chief strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted strength in gold.

“Rising gold prices, despite declining managed-money net-longs hedge funds and an advancing dollar, are a sign of the strengthening foundation under the metal,” he summarized on Monday.

“Less speculation vs. more organic demand forces are at play for the store of value, which indicates a healthy bull market.”

XAU/USD currently lingers at just under $1,950, having hit all-time highs of $2,075 in August.

Fed, oil and record hash rate: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BP says world oil demand peaked in 2019 as central banks make “unconventional” policy the norm — and that’s all good for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in uncertain territory as $10,000 stays in place but fundamentals shift to bullish.

Cointelegraph highlights five things that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.

Peak oil demand was in 2019

In what will likely become a frequently-quoted announcement, oil giant BP said this weekend that the world has hit peak demand for the black gold. 

In a report quoted by Bloomberg, BP said that demand for oil would stay “broadly flat” for the next twenty years, with pressure coming from alternative fuels and coronavirus.

“It subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” Spencer Dale, the firm’s chief economist said. 

“It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.”

Macro asset year-to-date returns

Macro asset year-to-date returns. Source: Skew

The startling admission is yet another surprise to come out of the global economy, at the same time as central banks admit that unconventional monetary policy has become the norm in 2020. 

With coronavirus at the helm and lockdown returning to at least one country on Monday, Bitcoin looks poised to benefit from oil and fiat currency weakness, as before.

As Cointelegraph reported, previous extreme volatility in the price of certain oil assets allowed BTC to shine as a hedge against losses.

Bets placed on another Fed shake-up

Another week, another meeting for the United States Federal Reserve — and a chance for safe havens to capitalize on its policy shifts.

On Wednesday, the Fed will outline how it plans to implement economic measures which will impact inflation — something which previously sparked dollar weakness.

“Maintaining a policy status quo in this context would be akin to throwing in a towel, which would undermine the credibility of the new framework right out of the gate,” Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies told MarketWatch on Monday.

Any actions from the Fed could weigh on the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) once again, something to which Bitcoin has shown significant inverse correlation since July.

Gold markets are already considering the likelihood of a shake-up, analysts say, betting on the Fed putting itself in an increasingly difficult position. The precious metal has formed a “golden triangle” and is ripe for a breakout.

For Bitcoin, it’s all about DXY — a reversal of recent strength at the beginning of September would be a clear bull signal. Conversely, continued gains would likely keep selling pressure at $10,500 intact.

DXY 2-month chart

DXY 2-month chart. Source: TradingView

“The coronavirus crisis is many times more destructive than the financial crisis of 2008,” Steve Barrow, head of forex strategy at Standard Bank, meanwhile summarized to Bloomberg

“There’s every reason to believe that the move to tighter monetary policy will take as long –- and probably much longer -- than the post-financial-crisis period.”

Weird is the new normal for central banks

In terms of central bank policy specifically, this year is seeing a seismic change similar to oil demand. 

With Bitcoin as an antidote to central bank meddling with the money supply, any further devaluation in fiat is only to be welcomed by BTC proponents looking for a safety net.

“Global central bankers are discovering that monetary policies they once viewed as unconventional and temporary are now proving to be conventional and long-lasting,” Bloomberg summarized about the situation worldwide.

According to data from the publication, major central banks are employing crisis policies in 2020 that they have never used before. 

As RT host Max Keiser often comments on his show, The Keiser Report, nothing is as permanent as temporary fiscal policy from a central bank.

Bitcoin hash rate hits fresh all-time highs

Within Bitcoin, however, the future looks decidedly rosy. Hash rate — a measure of how much computing power miners have decided to dedicate to validating transactions — has broken out to hit yet another all-time high.

On Monday, data from Blockchain shows, the seven-day average hash rate stood at 135 exahashes per second (EH/s).

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 2-month chart

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 2-month chart. Source: Blockchain

Hash rate strength underscores miners’ continued faith in Bitcoin’s long-term profitability. Difficulty, perhaps the most essential measure of blockchain health, is set for a 5.4% increase this week — something which will send it, too, to record highs.

Commenting on the general situation, Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that zooming out was all that was needed for a bullish take on Bitcoin.

“If you'd like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted on Monday. 

“Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it's likely we'll see that too. Bullish.”

The Tether effect returns

Cryptocurrency commentators are also eyeing moves by stablecoin Tether (USDT) as a pointer for BTC price trajectory.

Specifically, Tether’s burgeoning market cap, passing $15 billion in recent days, has historically spurred Bitcoin gains. 

“Bitcoin tether printer divergence. This story always seems to end the same way,” analyst Cole Garner tweeted, highlighting how previous increases in the USDT supply positively impacted Bitcoin.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, stablecoin holders, including those of USDT, appeared keen to snap up “cheap” BTC at prices around $10,000.

Bitcoin Cash hits new low vs. Bitcoin as Draper deletes Twitter praise

Bitcoin’s controversial hard fork now buys less BTC than ever before as one analyst warns that buyer support has disintegrated.

Altcoin Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is plumbing new lows against Bitcoin (BTC) after crashing through fresh support.

Data from price tickers including Cointelegraph Markets and CoinMarketCap confirm that BCH/BTC is now at its worst levels in Bitcoin Cash’s three-year history.

BCH/BTC in “downward price discovery”

At press time, 1 BCH bought just 0.022 BTC, 92.2% less than at its peak of 0.285 BTC in December 2017.

BCH launched as an off-shoot from BTC in August the same year, at the time enjoying support from various industry figures and businesses. This subsequently began to wane as the altcoin’s popularity failed to compete with Bitcoin’s, leaving a dedicated but vocal group of supporters as its main users. 

A subsequent hard fork saw the emergence of Bitcoin SV (BSV) in 2018, accompanied by high-profile infighting characterized by spats between BCH proponent Roger Ver and media mogul Calvin Ayre.

BCH began its most recent downward spiral against BTC in February 2020, after hitting year-to-date highs of 0.44 BTC.

For entrepreneur and commentator Alistair Milne, the outlook for the pair looked bleak, with no discernable buy levels left intact.

“Bcash vs. Bitcoin now in downward price discovery,” he pointed out on Saturday. “No support levels left having hit new ATL's last week.” 

BCH/BTC historical weekly chart

BCH/BTC historical weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Tim Draper: BCH promo deleted after I “did a little more research”

Bitcoin meanwhile remains locked in a battle for market dominance with a surging altcoin scene. On the back of the DeFi movement’s success, BTC now accounts for 55.8% of the total cryptocurrency market cap — its lowest since April 2019. 

Despite fluctuations in market presence, however, opinion has long coalesced around Bitcoin over its hard forks, leaving BCH and BSV with little attention.

“To be honest, it looks like a big bubble,” Narek Gevorgyan, CEO of crypto portfolio tracker CoinStats summarized in an online debate. 

He added that how BCH remained one of the ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap was a mystery. 

“Literally nobody cares about bcash but it's still in top 10,” he wrote.

BCH even failed to capitalize on an endorsement from billionaire Tim Draper this month, the latter having tweeted praise of both its properties and Ver himself.

In the event, Draper tagged an account impersonating Ver in his complimentary tweet but confirmed in a subsequent interview that he authored it.

BTC vs. BCH vs. BSV proof-of-work since Bitcoin Cash fork

BTC vs. BCH vs. BSV proof-of-work since Bitcoin Cash fork. Source: coin.dance

“I talked to Roger Ver and he did create a token… I didn’t realize that it had a security problem, but… he did create a token that was easily moved,” he said.

“So yeah I did put that tweet in, then I did a little more research and I pulled it off… I admire people who try new things, who do new things, and I’m less religious about one token or another.”

BTC proof-of-work has vastly outpaced BCH and BSV combined since their launch, with the accompanying lack of activity leaving both open to security vulnerabilities, which Draper mentioned.

According to online resource Crypto51, the theoretical current cost of launching a 51% attack for one hour is around 50 times as much in U.S. dollar terms against BCH than BTC — $9,914 versus $554,672. Another “version” of Bitcoin formerly popular, Bitcoin Gold (BTG), can now be compromised for just $312.

Bitcoin Cash hits new low vs. Bitcoin as Draper deletes Twitter praise

Bitcoin’s controversial hard fork now buys less BTC than ever before as one analyst warns that buyer support has disintegrated.

Altcoin Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is plumbing new lows against Bitcoin (BTC) after crashing through fresh support.

Data from price tickers including Cointelegraph Markets and CoinMarketCap confirm that BCH/BTC is now at its worst levels in Bitcoin Cash’s three-year history.

BCH/BTC in “downward price discovery”

At press time, 1 BCH bought just 0.022 BTC, 92.2% less than at its peak of 0.285 BTC in December 2017.

BCH launched as an off-shoot from BTC in August the same year, at the time enjoying support from various industry figures and businesses. This subsequently began to wane as the altcoin’s popularity failed to compete with Bitcoin’s, leaving a dedicated but vocal group of supporters as its main users. 

A subsequent hard fork saw the emergence of Bitcoin SV (BSV) in 2018, accompanied by high-profile infighting characterized by spats between BCH proponent Roger Ver and media mogul Calvin Ayre.

BCH began its most recent downward spiral against BTC in February 2020, after hitting year-to-date highs of 0.44 BTC.

For entrepreneur and commentator Alistair Milne, the outlook for the pair looked bleak, with no discernable buy levels left intact.

“Bcash vs. Bitcoin now in downward price discovery,” he pointed out on Saturday. “No support levels left having hit new ATL's last week.” 

BCH/BTC historical weekly chart

BCH/BTC historical weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Tim Draper: BCH promo deleted after I “did a little more research”

Bitcoin meanwhile remains locked in a battle for market dominance with a surging altcoin scene. On the back of the DeFi movement’s success, BTC now accounts for 55.8% of the total cryptocurrency market cap — its lowest since April 2019. 

Despite fluctuations in market presence, however, opinion has long coalesced around Bitcoin over its hard forks, leaving BCH and BSV with little attention.

“To be honest, it looks like a big bubble,” Narek Gevorgyan, CEO of crypto portfolio tracker CoinStats summarized in an online debate. 

He added that how BCH remained one of the ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap was a mystery. 

“Literally nobody cares about bcash but it's still in top 10,” he wrote.

BCH even failed to capitalize on an endorsement from billionaire Tim Draper this month, the latter having tweeted praise of both its properties and Ver himself.

In the event, Draper tagged an account impersonating Ver in his complimentary tweet but confirmed in a subsequent interview that he authored it.

BTC vs. BCH vs. BSV proof-of-work since Bitcoin Cash fork

BTC vs. BCH vs. BSV proof-of-work since Bitcoin Cash fork. Source: coin.dance

“I talked to Roger Ver and he did create a token… I didn’t realize that it had a security problem, but… he did create a token that was easily moved,” he said.

“So yeah I did put that tweet in, then I did a little more research and I pulled it off… I admire people who try new things, who do new things, and I’m less religious about one token or another.”

BTC proof-of-work has vastly outpaced BCH and BSV combined since their launch, with the accompanying lack of activity leaving both open to security vulnerabilities, which Draper mentioned.

According to online resource Crypto51, the theoretical current cost of launching a 51% attack for one hour is around 50 times as much in U.S. dollar terms against BCH than BTC — $9,914 versus $554,672. Another “version” of Bitcoin formerly popular, Bitcoin Gold (BTG), can now be compromised for just $312.

Stocks may push Bitcoin to $10.8K, says trader as USD bull run falters

The U.S. dollar currency index caps six days of gains with fresh resistance, while stocks could give Bitcoin a fresh boost, says Michaël van de Poppe.

Bitcoin (BTC) may get a “relief” rally closer to $11,000 as stock markets recover and concerns remain over the U.S. dollar.

In a tweet on Sep. 8, Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that macro movements could serve to strengthen BTC/USD.

BTC price may fill the upper futures gap first

The rebound would follow testing times for Bitcoin, which has repeatedly dipped below $10,000 support since Friday. In line with long-term trends, the largest cryptocurrency could benefit from a shift in macro sentiment.

“Futures bounce back significantly in the U.S. Europe also bouncing back up,” Van de Poppe wrote. 

“Might signal a slight relief on $BTC as well towards the area of $10,600-10,800.”

Van de Poppe previously warned that Bitcoin was not at the pit of its bearish streak, and could still fall below recent lows to hit $9,500 — filling a lower “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.

A rise to $10,600 would also constitute a gap fill, this having appeared over the weekend. So far, BTC/USD has failed to climb above $10,400.

Not everyone was as optimistic about the short-term prospects. Highlighting recent chart action, veteran trader Peter Brandt described both BTC and Ether (ETH) as “flagging.”

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 realized correlation 6-month chart

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 realized correlation 6-month chart. Source: Skew

Broker: USD gains “possible bull trap”

While progress in Bitcoin since April has begun to disappoint Brandt, so USD continues to give bearish signals to market commentators despite recent strength.

Bitcoin’s 15% plunge last week coincided with gains in the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY). Going forward, however, a mixture of Federal Reserve inflation policy and money printing is set to undermine its strength.

According to forex broker FxPro, the dollar must hit much higher levels against major currencies — the euro, pound sterling and Swiss franc — to exit its protracted breakdown.

“Without accelerated growth of the Dollar and the above levels being reached, we remain within the weakening pattern with short corrections,” it warned on Wednesday.

DXY appeared to cap its six-day winning streak on the day, hovering at near 93.6. FxPro additionally said that the gains may in fact constitute a “bull trap” — meaning that a bigger retreat may follow, wiping out progress.

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart

U.S. dollar currency index 6-month chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin ‘plankton’ wallets hit record — plus 4 more bullish BTC charts

Both big and small hodlers are amassing BTC, statistics confirm, a trend which has only accelerated as the United States prints more dollars.

More and more people are buying Bitcoin (BTC) since the 2020 coronavirus crash — and it doesn’t matter how rich they are, data shows.

Part of a series of bullish charts circulating this week, statistician Willy Woo highlighted the growth in both high and low-value wallets.

Woo: BTC whales putting money where their mouth is

According to the data, compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, Bitcoin whale entities — wallets controlled by a single high-worth individual — keep growing in terms of how much BTC they control.

Whale numbers themselves have already hit all-time highs.

“Many look at the BTC price and doubt it's a hedge. High net worth individuals and funds certainly consider it to be true and betting on that with real money,” Woo commented. 

“Since this latest round of USD money supply expansion, whales entities have increased their holdings of BTC markedly.”

Bitcoin whale holdings vs. USD supply

Bitcoin whale holdings vs. USD supply. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Bitcoin has received considerable attention as a possible safe haven since March, rebounding from 50% losses and maintaining higher levels since. Its fixed, unalterable supply — just one of its fundamental attributes — has formed a particular point of discussion as the U.S. M2 money supply keeps growing, but velocity decreases.

It’s not just whales feeling the need to bet on BTC. Smaller wallets, or “plankton” by comparison, are also showing clear growth.

“Bitcoin is a fast growing country in cyberspace with a population of sovereign individuals who prefer to use BTC for storing wealth and doing transactions,” stock-to-flow price model creator PlanB summarized.

He noted that Bitcoin has approximately 3 million users, making it the 134th largest country in the world, with a “monetary base” — market cap — of roughly $200 billion, ranking 21st globally.

Bitcoin “plankton” holdings

Bitcoin “plankton” holdings. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

Bitcoin supply stays dormant for longer… and longer

Further signs of accumulation come from existing hodlers. The proportion of the total Bitcoin supply which has not moved in three years or more hit a record 30.9% on Tuesday, Glassnode shows.

Bitcoin supply proportion dormant for 3 years or more

Bitcoin supply proportion dormant for 3 years or more. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, exchanges’ reserves of BTC keep declining as users withdraw coins to wallets. According to a new metric from fellow monitoring resource CryptoQuant, meanwhile, buy pressure remains “intense” for Bitcoin at current price levels around $10,000, roughly four months after the amount of newly mined BTC was expectedly halved in May. 

Even at lower levels than last week after a 15% drop, however, Bitcoin remains in a bullish long-term uptrend, says PlanB.

The cryptocurrency’s 200-week moving average price, which has never gone down, continues to advance by about $200 per month. Never has a monthly close in BTC/USD been below the 200-week benchmark.

Bitcoin price vs. 200-day moving average

Bitcoin price vs. 200-day moving average. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

In a sign of continued commitment from miners, the Bitcoin network hash rate is now estimated to have hit a new record of its own — over 150 exahashes per second (EH/s) after a minor 1.21% downward difficulty adjustment on Sep. 7.

Bitcoin network hash rate, raw values

Bitcoin network hash rate, raw values. Source: Blockchain.com

New Bitcoin-stablecoin metric reveals ‘intense’ buy pressure — analyst

Bitcoin is seeing continued “intense buy pressure,” says CryptoQuant, as $10,000 proves attractive for market entrants.

A new Bitcoin (BTC) metric says that investors are still much more interested in buying than selling at $10,000.

In a tweet on Sep. 7, Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain analytics resource CryptoQuant, unveiled his latest tool for tracking Bitcoin investor sentiment.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has “intense buy pressure”

Dubbed “Potential BUY/ SELL Pressure,” the tool takes exchanges’ total BTC reserves and divides them by stablecoin reserves.

The resulting number provides a rough impression of trader appetite, and it is currently skewed to the bullish side.

“BTC still has intense buy pressure. Exchanges are holding more stablecoins and fewer BTC compared to the beginning of this year,” Ki tweeted. 

“I think we still have room for BTC bullish trend.”

Ki added one proviso to the data — that exchange traders could use stablecoins to purchase cryptocurrencies other than BTC as well as hold Tether (USDT) to buy at lower prices later.

Bitcoin potential buy/ sell pressure chart

Bitcoin potential buy/ sell pressure chart. Source: CryptoQuant/ Twitter

Stablecoin boom and falling BTC reserves

The environment on exchanges is decidedly in a state of flux with Bitcoin’s latest price action

Tether, the largest stablecoin, has passed a total market cap of $14 billion, while other recent data also suggested that buyers were looking to use stablecoin assets to snap up BTC at lower prices.

That came in the form of Glassnode’s stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which recorded a level three times stronger in late August than in June 2019, when BTC/USD traded at an identical price point — $11,400. 

At the same time, as Ki confirms, exchanges’ BTC reserves continue to decrease, evidence of a continued desire among investors to save, not trade or spend BTC.

Bitcoin price hits $9.8K as quest to fill futures gap sees 6-week lows

Amid ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar currency index, Bitcoin bears gain strength, sending BTC/USD to its lowest since late July.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit fresh lows on Sep. 7 as renewed selling pressure saw the largest cryptocurrency return to the $9,800 range.

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sep. 7

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sep. 7. Source: Coin360

Analyst eyes BTC price bottom at futures gap

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed more trouble for BTC/USD on Monday, the pair hitting $9,880 — its lowest since July 26.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: Coin360

After mixed performance over the weekend, $10,000 looked increasingly shaky support, something that analysts warn could be pivotal in the short-term.

Discussing the current market, Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that the outlook hinged on two gaps in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets.

As Cointelegraph reported, the two gaps are at $9,700 and $10,600 — Van de Poppe has outlined two likely scenarios for price action, and the question is which gap Bitcoin will fill first. Press-time levels were at $9,950.

“Couldn't really hold the $10,000 level (or it's dipping beneath). The second scenario would be a closing of the CME gap, after which closing of the upper CME gap is next,” he tweeted

“$9,600-9,800 could be bottom level for now.”

The second scenario involves a break upwards towards $11,000, followed by a retest of levels around the lower CME gap.

DXY keeps climbing in blow to BTC

Bears had gained the upper hand through last week, with $12,000 swiftly giving way to 15% losses as macro changes took their toll. 

Strength in the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began as the week progressed, continued on Monday, hitting 93.1.

U.S. dollar currency index 10-day chart

U.S. dollar currency index 10-day chart. Source: TradingView

Any influence from Wall Street stock markets will only be felt on Tuesday, as Labor Day sees a break in trading.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Fear, politics and the dollar: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

U.S. dollar strength combines with a decision on monetary policy in Europe as a backdrop to fresh fear among Bitcoin investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $10,000 support after a weekend in which it consolidated after a major drop — what next?

Cointelegraph takes a look at the major factors set to influence BTC price action in the coming week. 

Keiser: U.S. currency index needs to drop below 80

The end of last week saw big changes for BTC/USD, with the pair shedding over 15% from $12,050 to bounce at $9,900.

The weekend failed to trigger a significant bounce, with $9,900 seeing several more tests before Bitcoin drifted back into five figures.

What changed on Friday was one macro factor — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began rising after hitting two-year lows. 

DXY measures USD against a basket of U.S. trading partner currencies. A week previously, an inflation announcement from the Federal Reserve had a bearish impact on the index, but last week saw a reversal in its fortunes — at the expense of safe havens.

At publication time on Sep. 7, DXY was at 92.95, having risen as high as 93.25 over the weekend. For RT host Max Keiser, fresh losses need to appear for Bitcoin to gain — the inverse correlation between the cryptocurrency and DXY should continue.

“We need the DXY to drop through 80 to get the real fireworks going in #Bitcoin and Gold,” he tweeted. 

Keiser added that developments in the ongoing Brexit saga could also prove a positive influence for BTC next month. Should the European Union adopt a hardline stance with the United Kingdom, the euro could benefit and pressure DXY.

“Hopefully the EU cuts (the U.K.) off in October, freeing the Euro to trade higher. This will help Bitcoin a lot,” he wrote.

U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart

U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart. Source: TradingView

Crunch time for policy in Europe

On the topic of geopolitics, multiple events this week may serve to steer markets, with Bitcoin reacting in step. 

In addition to preparations for Brexit talks failing, the EU will eye economic policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss its options.

As Cointelegraph noted, deflation has returned to the ECB’s sphere of influence for the first time since 2016. Now, the focus will turn to whether copying the U.S. approach is suitable for the eurozone.

As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global recovery from the March coronavirus crash, once robust, is now fizzling.

“High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall - with activity still well short of pre-virus levels - in the third,” the publication’s chief economist, Tom Orlik, commented.

To return to “pre-virus normality,” he added, all that would work is a coronavirus vaccine.

CME gap opens at $10,600

This weekend delivered on a classic Bitcoin price trigger which could see short-term upside reenter the picture.

On Friday, CME Group’s Bitcoin futures closed trading at $10,615 but reopened again at $10,430. 

The resulting “gap” in the market provides likely room for an uptick from current levels of $10,100 — if Bitcoin follows historical behavioral patterns, the void should not last long.

The original dip below $10,000 gave rise to hopes that the only gap disobeying the rule — at $9,700 — would get filled. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $10,000 must disintegrate to make that possible.

“Holding $10,000 should warrant a short-term relief bounce towards the $10,800-10,900 area,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday. 

“Breaking $10,000 and the market goes for the CME gap in one-go and we'll see mid $9K's.”

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap. Source: TradingView

Fundamentals see only a modest fall

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals look set to take a break this week as miners take stock of the price declines.

According to data from on-chain monitoring resources BTC.com and Blockchain, difficulty and hash rate are set to come off near all-time highs.

The next automatic difficulty adjustment will occur on Monday and will see a negative move of an estimated 1.7%. The difficulty is currently at its highest ever, underscoring the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.

The hash rate, meanwhile, saw its absolute peak in mid-August but has since dropped only negligibly — currently at around 122 exahashes per second (EH/s).

Hash rate gives a rough estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, with downward price pressure tending to disrupt some less profitable miners.

On Thursday, a day before the $9,900 dip, Cointelegraph reported on outflows from some major mining pools spiking — BTC was heading to exchanges while the spot price was around $11,500 after a rejection of $12,000 support.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain

Sentiment turns from greed to fear

In a telling consequence of price action, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dropped to its most “fearful” in almost two months.

According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investors have completely changed their outlook versus just one week ago.

The Index takes multiple factors into account to compile a normalized reading of how much fear or greed is circulating from market participants at a given time. The higher the reading, the more likely the market is due for a correction.

As Cointelegraph reported, much of August saw the index linger near its all-time highs of 85/100, known as “extreme greed.” Before the run to $12,000, however, the number was closer to 40, or “fear.”

Friday saw another shake-up, with “greed” abruptly disappearing to be replaced once again by “fear” with the index measuring 41/100, the lowest levels since July.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

Fear, politics and the dollar: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

U.S. dollar strength combines with a decision on monetary policy in Europe as a backdrop to fresh fear among Bitcoin investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $10,000 support after a weekend in which it consolidated after a major drop — what next?

Cointelegraph takes a look at the major factors set to influence BTC price action in the coming week. 

Keiser: U.S. currency index needs to drop below 80

The end of last week saw big changes for BTC/USD, with the pair shedding over 15% from $12,050 to bounce at $9,900.

The weekend failed to trigger a significant bounce, with $9,900 seeing several more tests before Bitcoin drifted back into five figures.

What changed on Friday was one macro factor — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which began rising after hitting two-year lows. 

DXY measures USD against a basket of U.S. trading partner currencies. A week previously, an inflation announcement from the Federal Reserve had a bearish impact on the index, but last week saw a reversal in its fortunes — at the expense of safe havens.

At publication time on Sep. 7, DXY was at 92.95, having risen as high as 93.25 over the weekend. For RT host Max Keiser, fresh losses need to appear for Bitcoin to gain — the inverse correlation between the cryptocurrency and DXY should continue.

“We need the DXY to drop through 80 to get the real fireworks going in #Bitcoin and Gold,” he tweeted. 

Keiser added that developments in the ongoing Brexit saga could also prove a positive influence for BTC next month. Should the European Union adopt a hardline stance with the United Kingdom, the euro could benefit and pressure DXY.

“Hopefully the EU cuts (the U.K.) off in October, freeing the Euro to trade higher. This will help Bitcoin a lot,” he wrote.

U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart

U.S. dollar currency index 5-day chart. Source: TradingView

Crunch time for policy in Europe

On the topic of geopolitics, multiple events this week may serve to steer markets, with Bitcoin reacting in step. 

In addition to preparations for Brexit talks failing, the EU will eye economic policy as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss its options.

As Cointelegraph noted, deflation has returned to the ECB’s sphere of influence for the first time since 2016. Now, the focus will turn to whether copying the U.S. approach is suitable for the eurozone.

As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global recovery from the March coronavirus crash, once robust, is now fizzling.

“High-frequency data paints a picture of a rapid rebound in the second quarter, and a stall - with activity still well short of pre-virus levels - in the third,” the publication’s chief economist, Tom Orlik, commented.

To return to “pre-virus normality,” he added, all that would work is a coronavirus vaccine.

CME gap opens at $10,600

This weekend delivered on a classic Bitcoin price trigger which could see short-term upside reenter the picture.

On Friday, CME Group’s Bitcoin futures closed trading at $10,615 but reopened again at $10,430. 

The resulting “gap” in the market provides likely room for an uptick from current levels of $10,100 — if Bitcoin follows historical behavioral patterns, the void should not last long.

The original dip below $10,000 gave rise to hopes that the only gap disobeying the rule — at $9,700 — would get filled. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $10,000 must disintegrate to make that possible.

“Holding $10,000 should warrant a short-term relief bounce towards the $10,800-10,900 area,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday. 

“Breaking $10,000 and the market goes for the CME gap in one-go and we'll see mid $9K's.”

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap

CME Bitcoin futures chart showing the latest gap. Source: TradingView

Fundamentals see only a modest fall

Bitcoin’s network fundamentals look set to take a break this week as miners take stock of the price declines.

According to data from on-chain monitoring resources BTC.com and Blockchain, difficulty and hash rate are set to come off near all-time highs.

The next automatic difficulty adjustment will occur on Monday and will see a negative move of an estimated 1.7%. The difficulty is currently at its highest ever, underscoring the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.

The hash rate, meanwhile, saw its absolute peak in mid-August but has since dropped only negligibly — currently at around 122 exahashes per second (EH/s).

Hash rate gives a rough estimate of the computing power dedicated to validating the Bitcoin blockchain, with downward price pressure tending to disrupt some less profitable miners.

On Thursday, a day before the $9,900 dip, Cointelegraph reported on outflows from some major mining pools spiking — BTC was heading to exchanges while the spot price was around $11,500 after a rejection of $12,000 support.

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart

Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain

Sentiment turns from greed to fear

In a telling consequence of price action, cryptocurrency market sentiment has dropped to its most “fearful” in almost two months.

According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investors have completely changed their outlook versus just one week ago.

The Index takes multiple factors into account to compile a normalized reading of how much fear or greed is circulating from market participants at a given time. The higher the reading, the more likely the market is due for a correction.

As Cointelegraph reported, much of August saw the index linger near its all-time highs of 85/100, known as “extreme greed.” Before the run to $12,000, however, the number was closer to 40, or “fear.”

Friday saw another shake-up, with “greed” abruptly disappearing to be replaced once again by “fear” with the index measuring 41/100, the lowest levels since July.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart

Crypto Fear & Greed Index 3-month chart. Source: Alternative.me

Bitcoin price dips below $10K as analyst eyes ‘dead cat bounce’

Bitcoin briefly reenters four figures before a bounce takes the market up $400 in minutes amid highly volatile conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $10,000 on Sep. 4 as selling pressure combined with strength in the U.S. dollar to spark more pain for hodlers.

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sep. 5

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sep. 5. Source: Coin360

BTC price triggers bulls with $9,900 bounce

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed BTC/USD hit four figures during Friday trading, capping 24-hour losses of over 10%.

The largest cryptocurrency had attempted to reclaim $10,500 on the day, before capitulating to lose five figures for the first time since late July.

The move down comes amid renewed bullish signs in the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), with which Bitcoin had shown increasing inverse correlation in August.

At press time, volatility was noticeable as BTC/USD fluctuated around the $10,000 mark. A rebound took the pair to $10,400 minutes after the dive to lows of $9,900.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Analyst eyes bottom formation and new “altseason”

For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, there was a keen interest in establishing bottom support — something which would likely occur at the outstanding Bitcoin futures gap of $9,700.

“If we want to establish a bottom formation, I'd say we need to test the low or clearly construct a strong support,” he tweeted

“In that regard, dead cat bounce towards high $10K's, which then ends up with another dropdown to establish that support.” 

Van de Poppe added that weakness in Bitcoin could thereafter spark fresh gains for altcoins. Bitcoin’s market cap share stood at 57% on Friday, its lowest since June 2019.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin may sustain $10K as gold nears ‘inflection point’ vs. stocks

Gold and Bitcoin as safe havens may be about to outperform stocks, a Bloomberg strategist says.

Huge gains in stock markets despite the dire economic consequences of coronavirus may soon be a thing of the past, one analyst warns.

In a tweet on Sep. 4, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that gold may soon get the limelight as markets reach an “inflection point.”

Strategist: fiat markets may soon face day of reckoning

“In a battle of the bulls, we see greater potential endurance favoring #gold over the #Nasdaq,” he wrote. 

“The conundrum of monetary and fiscal stimulus lifting most assets may be nearing an inflection point, where the increasing certainty of QE and budget deficits firm gold's foundation more.”

McGlone was referring to the major market phenomenon of the past six months — equities keep going up, even reaching new highs, while central bank interventions in the economy reach unprecedented levels. 

Previously, analysts even postulated that stock markets’ value no longer matters due to the extent of manipulation since March.

Gold and Bitcoin (BTC) have both profited from fiat uncertainty since July.

Nasdaq vs. gold, central bank balance sheet chart

Nasdaq vs. gold, central bank balance sheet chart. Source: Bloomberg/ Twitter

Bitcoin and gold contrast fresh dollar pressure

Another curious counterpoint comes in the form of the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which recently plumbed two-year lows. For gold bug Peter Schiff, the outlook for the precious metal is likewise favorable thanks to geopolitical shifts as a result of this USD weakness.

Discussing news that China plans to reduce its dollar exposure, Schiff said that, as before, average Americans would end up footing the bill.

“If true this is very significant,” he tweeted. 

“In fact, my feeling is that China will reduce its exposure by much more. It's also likely that other nations will do likewise. That means the Fed is gonna need a much bigger printing press and Americans had better be prepared to really pay up!”

Schiff added that during this week’s retracement, gold won out over Bitcoin, which saw sharper losses. New strength in DXY, however, may yet spell trouble for optimism over both assets.

Bitcoin vs. gold realized correlation 6-month chart

Bitcoin vs. gold realized correlation 6-month chart. Source: Skew

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on eerie similarities between the current environment and that of 1929, the year of an infamous crash which celebrates its 91st anniversary Friday.

Bitcoin market index back to ‘fear’ on 91st anniversary of 1929 crash

Weakness across macro indices draws frightening comparisons to the Wall St. Crash, exactly 91 years to the day that markets began to die.

Bitcoin (BTC) may be testing $10,000 but further losses would not be unusual, says an asset manager on the 90th anniversary of the Wall St. Crash.

In a tweet on Sep. 4, Raoul Pal said that the past 24 hours’ BTC price declines were nothing out of the ordinary.

Pal eyes Bitcoin buying opportunity

“In the post-Halving bull cycles, bitcoin can often correct 25% (even 40% + in 2017), throwing off the short-term traders (or giving swing traders a shot at the short side),” he wrote. 

“Each of those was a buying opportunity.  DCA opportunity ahead?”

Pal was referring to dollar-cost averaging investing, which involves buying a set amount of Bitcoin at regular intervals to slowly build up a portfolio. 

As Cointelegraph noted, the practice has seen proven profitability for BTC, and payment network Square rolled it out as a consumer feature this year.

Comparing Thursday’s losses even to recent drawdowns from local highs, Bitcoin has fared less badly in context than price indices would suggest.

Bitcoin price drawdowns comparison

Bitcoin price drawdowns comparison. Source: ChartsBTC/ Twitter

A knock-effect of the losses was nonetheless a dramatic shift in investor sentiment, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. The Index, just days ago firmly in its “greed” zone, fell by more than 30 points out of 100 on Friday to stand at 40 or “fear” for the first time since July.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of Sept. 4, 2020

Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of Sept. 4, 2020. Source: Alternative.me

Markets hit Great Crash of 1929 anniversary

While analysts continue to eye the potential for BTC/USD to drop to fill a futures gap at $9,700, across macro markets, eerie historical signs are appearing.

As noted by commentator Holger Zschaepitz on Friday, Sept. 4 marks 91 years to the day that markets began their rapid descent during the Wall. St. Crash.

“Just to put things into perspective: After the fabulous gains on the stock market in the 1920s, the crash began just on Sep4th, 1929!” he tweeted.

Just like 2020, the event followed several months of recovery in equities, with economist Irving Fisher infamously saying just beforehand that stocks had “reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

Zschaepitz’s words come as others warn about the health of gold, silver and the U.S. dollar currency index. In the case of the latter, after days of gains which coincided with Bitcoin price selling pressure, resistance is incoming, Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb says.

“Careful with this dump, he cautioned subscribers of his Telegram trading channel.  

“The other markets are on their last legs. If they survive then we probably do OK here. If they mega dump; you do not want to be heavily leveraged to the longside.”

U.S. dollar currency index daily chart

U.S. dollar currency index daily chart. Source: TradingView

At publication time, Bitcoin traded at around $10,400 after a modest rebound from lows of $10,090, with daily losses still at almost 9%.

Bitcoin price may spark ‘war of miners’ — 1-day pool outflows hit $18M

Pools may be attempting to trade the dip, CryptoQuant suggests as its CEO warns about rivalries building.

Bitcoin (BTC) losing 5% in a day has sparked major changes for miners, data shows as mining pools suddenly send large amounts of BTC to exchanges.

Data from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant reveals that Sept. 2 saw outflows spike across major mining pools.

CryptoQuant expects “war” over BTC bull market

Taking three pools — Poolin, Slush and the now-defunct HaoBTC — total outflows for Wednesday hit 1,630 BTC ($18.5 million).

The figure dwarfs those seen recently, and came as BTC/USD rapidly lost $12,000 levels to bounce off $11,150.

Mining pool outflow comparison

Mining pool outflow comparison. Source: CryptoQuant/ Twitter

For Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, miners may be taking the opportunity to rearrange the competition, now that Bitcoin is trading broadly higher than in most of 2020.

“I think it's going to be the war of miners between those who want a Bitcoin price rally and those who don't,” he told Cointelegraph in private comments. 

“As I know, some Chinese miners already realize their mining profitability (return on investment), and they might not want new mining competitors joining the industry because of the bull market.”

Despite coins likely making their way to exchanges, the danger of a sell-off due to the price drop remains less likely, Ki continued.

“Miners are good traders,” he added. “I think they are just looking for selling opportunities, not capitulation.”

Fundamentals stay near record high

Miners are no strangers to price-induced transfers, something which bolsters CryptoQuant’s theory. In May, directly after the block subsidy halving, similar behavior was observed as price volatility ensued.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, network fundamentals still highlight optimism among participants, with hash rate and difficulty circling all-time highs.

At press time, estimates placed the upcoming difficulty adjustment, set for four days’ time, to lower difficulty by an almost imperceptible 0.13%.

Bitcoin mirrors gains of past halvings, suggesting $41K price in 2020

Performance remains on track, the stock-to-flow model shows, as creator PlanB tells investors, “patience is a virtue.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is charting its way directly between the previous two block subsidy halvings that sent its price an order of magnitude higher.

In a tweet on Sept. 2, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) BTC price models, told investors to be “patient” when it comes to price appreciation.

Bitcoin price remains on track four months after halving

Despite bouncing near $11,000 support on Wednesday, Bitcoin has performed exactly as expected on monthly timeframes since its last halving event in May.

Reluctance to break and secure $12,000 as support has characterized price action since, but progress on the monthly chart is plain to see.

“Reminder: we are still early, only 4 months after #bitcoin 2020 halving, nicely between 2012 and 2016 paths,” PlanB commented. 

“Patience is a virtue.”

An accompanying comparative price index chart showed Bitcoin in 2020 adding gains which are between those of 2012 and 2016.

As such, BTC/USD remains firmly within the range of possibility for increasing by an order of magnitude once again. According to S2F, this should see a price target of $288,000 in the current halving cycle, which ends in 2024.

Bitcoin price post-halving comparison

Bitcoin price post-halving comparison. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

$41,000 end-of-year BTC price target appears

Over the weekend, meanwhile, another chart painted an even more bullish outlook for Bitcoin. 

Taking May’s halving as a starting point, data analysis resource ecoinometrics produced a price target for $41,000 for the end of this year.

“Looking solid,” the firm said on Twitter, adding that $100,000 should appear by April 18, 2021.

Bitcoin price forecast post 2020 halving

Bitcoin price forecast post 2020 halving. Source: ecoinometrics/ Twitter

The targets were compiled using average growth after Bitcoin’s previous halvings.

Meanwhile, short-term changes in network sentiment have not contributed to a change in long-term outlook. These include a spike in outflows from mining pools indicative of selling activity this week, data from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant showed.

Chinese mining pool Poolin saw outflows of 490 BTC, the majority of the activity.

Bitcoin drops to $11.1K as USD currency index frustrates BTC price

An uptick in the USD currency index produces an instant plunge for BTC/USD, with the largest cryptocurrency sinking 5% on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5% to retest $11,000 on Sept. 2 as fresh strength in the U.S. dollar currency index appeared to spell trouble.

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sept. 2

Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Sept. 2. Source: Coin360

BTC/USD sees sharp $12,000 rejection

Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed BTC/USD shedding $850 in under 24 hours on Wednesday.

The move follows Bitcoin’s latest brief trip above $12,000 resistance, a level which has so far failed to hold despite multiple attempts this year.

BTC/USD 1-day price chart

BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Analyst warns of “short-term bounce”

Coupled with the bounce off $11,150 was a strong day for the USD currency index, a metric with which Bitcoin has shown strong inverse correlation in recent months.

After hitting its lowest levels since 2018, the index rebounded sharply, pressuring both BTC and gold, the latter shedding 0.6% on the day to hit $1,957.

USD currency index 5-day chart

USD currency index 5-day chart. Source: TradingView

Commenting on the latest movements, Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe nonetheless warned that the wider crypto market was in for a correction.

“And that's why you take some profits on the way up. Significant drop on $BTC here, couldn't hold the $11,600 area,” he told Twitter followers. 

“Could still, very well, be a wick south, but overall I'm expecting short term bounce coming in. Across the field.”

At press time, BTC/USD circled $11,400 after a modest recovery, firmly reclaiming its longer-term trading corridor with $11,000 as support.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin, USD velocity both crash — but BTC price reacted differently

Rampant inflation of the dollar’s M2 money supply is only enriching the “cantillionaires,” Max Keiser argues as its velocity hits record lows.

There are more United States dollars than ever, but the rate at which they move around the economy has never been so low.

That was according to the Federal Reserve’s own statistics on Aug. 31, which showed that a collapse in M2 money supply velocity had come despite record money printing.

The rise of the “cantillionaires”

The M2 supply topped $18 trillion in 2020 thanks to coronavirus countermeasures while velocity fell below 1.125 for the first time since at least the 1940s.

This year marks a clear contrast to historical data with sudden volatility in both metrics worryingly clear to see.

As Cointelegraph reported, the record low suggests that there is a huge amount of liquidity, but that is barely touching the economy. 

One reason for this is that the additional cash remains on the Fed’s balance sheet after its operations, meaning that those closest to the source of the money are those who see almost all of its impact.

For RT host Max Keiser, this process, known as the Cantillon Effect, is turning those beneficiaries into a new sector of the elite — the “cantillionaires.”

“This is the only chart that gives you the best picture of what’s happening. It explains everything,” he tweeted alongside the Fed data. 

“Trillions are being printed, but they’re not circulating. The $ is being boarded by those closest to the printer.”

U.S. M2 money supply velocity vs. money stock chart

U.S. M2 money supply velocity vs. money stock chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Bitcoin supply data shows investment mindset

Money printing has come under the microscope in recent weeks, as in addition to the velocity collapse, the dollar is circling multi-year lows against major currencies.

In Europe, meanwhile, a return to negative inflation comes despite the European Central Bank’s own money-printing program, which one commentator said had definitively failed to achieve its desired effect.

Bitcoin (BTC), as a hard-cap currency with a variable, predictable supply, has only benefitted from central banks’ rising debt.

Data from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant underscores the robustness of Bitcoin’s supply velocity — fewer and fewer coins are circulating as investors choose to save, not spend.

Bitcoin money supply velocity vs. price chart

Bitcoin money supply velocity vs. price chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Last month, Kraken executive Dan Held included the supply readings as one sure sign that Bitcoin was in the midst of a fresh price bull run. Inflation and global debt also made the list.

Bitcoin, USD velocity both crash — but BTC price reacted differently

Rampant inflation of the dollar’s M2 money supply is only enriching the “cantillionaires,” Max Keiser argues as its velocity hits record lows.

There are more United States dollars than ever, but the rate at which they move around the economy has never been so low.

That was according to the Federal Reserve’s own statistics on Aug. 31, which showed that a collapse in M2 money supply velocity had come despite record money printing.

The rise of the “cantillionaires”

The M2 supply topped $18 trillion in 2020 thanks to coronavirus countermeasures while velocity fell below 1.125 for the first time since at least the 1940s.

This year marks a clear contrast to historical data with sudden volatility in both metrics worryingly clear to see.

As Cointelegraph reported, the record low suggests that there is a huge amount of liquidity, but that is barely touching the economy. 

One reason for this is that the additional cash remains on the Fed’s balance sheet after its operations, meaning that those closest to the source of the money are those who see almost all of its impact.

For RT host Max Keiser, this process, known as the Cantillon Effect, is turning those beneficiaries into a new sector of the elite — the “cantillionaires.”

“This is the only chart that gives you the best picture of what’s happening. It explains everything,” he tweeted alongside the Fed data. 

“Trillions are being printed, but they’re not circulating. The $ is being boarded by those closest to the printer.”

U.S. M2 money supply velocity vs. money stock chart

U.S. M2 money supply velocity vs. money stock chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Bitcoin supply data shows investment mindset

Money printing has come under the microscope in recent weeks, as in addition to the velocity collapse, the dollar is circling multi-year lows against major currencies.

In Europe, meanwhile, a return to negative inflation comes despite the European Central Bank’s own money-printing program, which one commentator said had definitively failed to achieve its desired effect.

Bitcoin (BTC), as a hard-cap currency with a variable, predictable supply, has only benefitted from central banks’ rising debt.

Data from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant underscores the robustness of Bitcoin’s supply velocity — fewer and fewer coins are circulating as investors choose to save, not spend.

Bitcoin money supply velocity vs. price chart

Bitcoin money supply velocity vs. price chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Last month, Kraken executive Dan Held included the supply readings as one sure sign that Bitcoin was in the midst of a fresh price bull run. Inflation and global debt also made the list.