Responding to separate criticism of the first two ETFs to launch, both based on Bitcoin futures, Kraken growth lead Dan Held meanwhile argued that the same fears had surrounded the launch of those futures themselves in late 2017. Ultimately, they were unfounded.
Grayscale formally "kicks off" GBTC ETF conversion o
In further ETF news, institutional investment giant Grayscale confirmed Tuesday that it had applied to convert its flagship Bitcoin product to an ETF.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) would trade under the new ticker $BTC should it be approved.
"From where we sit, we've never seen bigger maturity within the digital asset ecosystem, and we're confident that this is the next step in the journey of GBTC's lifecycle," CEO Michael Sonnenshein said in video comments.
No amount of FUD can keep Bitcoin down, and China has once again given bulls a boost with its bans.
It’s been 150 days since China banned Bitcoin (BTC) mining — and BTC price action has only benefited as a result.
Five months ago, China caused a considerable but not unsurprising stir by doubling down on its hostile environment policy toward cryptocurrency.
Bitcoiners to China: Thanks for the ban
Just like every “ban” before it, China’s move against miners saw temporary price turbulence, matching the biggest physical upheaval in Bitcoin’s history.
As miners powered down and relocated out of China, Bitcoin’s network hash rate fell 50%, with difficulty slowly adjusting for the changes in the months that followed.
Since then, however, a powerful renaissance has occurred, and now the network and its security have practically erased any trace of China’s impact. BTC price action, meanwhil, shows a much clearer trend.
“China banned BTC transactions and mining only 150 days ago,” analyst Willy Woo summarized about the episode.
“Today the network is more decentralised than ever and price has risen +50% . Antifragile.”
As Cointelegraph reported, anti-Bitcoin moves by Beijing have ironically led to price increases, not decreases, and 2021 has now proven itself no different.
The hash rate data further shows how China’s absence has improved decentralization, dissolving a weak point that had characterized mining for years.
Woo had seen the potential pluses behind the mining ban before BTC/USD had even begun to recover, wryly calling China’s actions “selfless.”
The United States, meanwhile, is now estimated to be the largest participant when it comes to the Bitcoin network hash rate.
Miners hodl post-China
Current miner behavior underscores the long-term perspective taken by network participants since China exited.
The complex-sounding but insightful Long-Term & Short-Term Holder Realized Price Ratio is tipped to repeat its historical bull signal.
A "favorite" Bitcoin (BTC) price signal could be about to turn bullish — and upside has always resulted, data shows.
As noted by podcast host Preston Pysh on Oct. 18, the Long-Term & Short-Term Holder Realized Price Ratio (LTHSTH-RPR) looks primed to print a bull flag.
Chart hints at return of the bulls
It may sound wordy, but LTHSTH-RPR is one of the most accurate Bitcoin price indicators. Its creator, Bitcoin 2021 conference organizer Dylan LeClair, confirmed his own bullishness based on its readings in late September.
“TLDR: The lower the Short-Term:Long-Term Realized Price Ratio goes the more bullish I will become,” he wrote in an explanatory Twitter thread.
“In the end, all bears will die.”
Now, with the indicator trending down for several months, it is high time for a rebirth — and BTC/USD has always benefited as a result.
Under the hood, LTHSTH-RPR shows the cost basis of long-term holders and short-term holders. A long-term holder is defined by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as an address holdings coins which have not moved in at least 155 days.
“When the STH:LTH Realized Price Ratio is increasing, this means that STH cost basis is increasing relative to LTH cost basis, and vis versa,” LeClair added.
“BTC rises when the marginal seller is exhausted. This is why you see the cost basis of LTHs stay stagnant during explosive bull runs, while the cost basis of STHs (many of whom are new market participants) explode - there are simply not enough coins to go around.”
So far, LTH cost basis has not been eclipsed by STH cost basis — when this happens, the current downtrend should end.
"Up only" remains the narrative
As Cointelegraph reported, LTHSTH-RPR is just one of a number of BTC price metrics to have buoyed the bulls in recent weeks.
An exciting week begins with Bitcoin back challenging all-time highs and ETFs seeing a potential U.S. launch.
Bitcoin (BTC) simply refuses to die this week as a dip below $60,000 barely lasts an hour and bears are burned yet again.
After a fairly calm weekend, Sunday saw a typical drawdown before a dramatic resurgence took place for BTC/USD just an hour later.
With that, Bitcoin has preserved not only its bullish trajectory but has also sealed its highest weekly close ever — around $61,500.
As the market braces for a possible start of trading for the United States’ first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), volatility is all but guaranteed, say analysts.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five things to consider in the week that BTC/USD squares up to all-time highs and institutional access takes a historic leap forward.
Bitcoin gives less than an hour to “buy the dip”
Just when it seemed that the run to all-time highs had hit a stumbling block, Bitcoin surprised everyone yet again overnight.
After losing $60,000 late Sunday, bulls had no time for BTC price weakness, and before BTC/USD had even hit $59,000, they embarked on an aggressive buying spree.
Hours later, the pair was back above not only $60,000, but $62,000 — and has stayed there at the time of writing.
The episode did not even impact Bitcoin’s weekly close, which despite volatility still came in as the highest of all time — around $61,500.
“The historic Weekly Close now means BTC is well-positioned for further upside,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized on Monday.
He added that the next phase of BTC price action will be “more volatile” than what has come before, in line with previous bull market years 2013 and 2017.
As various analysts celebrate the weekly close milestone, meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. market open could also provide excitement.
Monday could see the launch of the first-ever Bitcoin ETF products with the blessing of U.S. regulators, this coming as BTC/USD is less than $3,000 from new all-time highs.
On the topic of derivatives, funding rates across exchanges have also cooled since last week, providing relief for those concerned about unsustainable upside leading to a blow-off top.
ETFs are ‘go,’ but not for everyone
Love it or hate it by now, this week is all about the Bitcoin ETF.
As rumors began circulating about a U.S. regulatory green light late last week, Bitcoin price action heated up — and this week looks set to continue the trend.
After years of rejections, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to witness the launch of two ETF products both based on CME Group Bitcoin futures.
These precede a lengthy decision-making process which begins next month concerning physical Bitcoin ETFs — those with actual BTC as their underlying asset and which form the topic of real interest for analysts.
There is no guarantee that those traditional ETFs will get approved, and concerns already abound that the market may end up disappointed once more.
With multiple applications to be decided on, however, there remains six months for a breakthrough from the SEC.
Optimism that the tide will turn in the crypto industry’s favor continues this week, as Grayscale confirms that it will apply to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund product to an ETF.
Grayscale’s fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been a talking point in itself in recent weeks, trading at an increasing discount to spot BTC amid fears that institutional clients are voting with their feet in the run-up to the ETF launch.
The former’s higher fees is one example of the competitive advantage debate, while some have noted that futures-based ETFs will not function as a suitable alternative by definition.
This chart shows why you’re better off buying #Bitcoin than Bitcoin Future ETF. For investors, new Bitcoin ETFs might be more costly than purchasing cryptocurrency directly. Bitcoin Future has underperformed by 30ppts since start of Bitcoin Future in 2017. https://t.co/1ZnVBJQlGapic.twitter.com/oXrZ95Wsmg
“To begin with, most institutional players have direct access to CME futures. Typically, the main reason they would choose to trade ETFs instead of futures would be to avoid tracking error (against spot price) from futures roll costs or price deviations from to contango or backwardation,” crypto trading firm QCP Capital added in a circular to Telegram channel subscribers Friday.
“As such, having the ETF based on CME futures defeats the fundamental advantage of ETFs; to track spot price as closely as possible.”
Difficulty set for 7th straight increase
Bitcoin network fundamentals continue to impress this week, and difficulty is leading the pack.
What is arguably Bitcoin’s most essential feature is going from strength to strength, and on Tuesday is set to seal a seventh consecutive increase. The last time that occurred was in 2019.
That increase will take difficulty back above 20 trillion for the first time since June.
This comes despite some volatility in hash rate, with estimates now back down to 123 exahashes per second (EH/s), having reached in excess of 140 EH/s this month.
With the overall uptrend still intact, however, concerns are few and far between amid news that the U.S. now provides a home for the lion’s share of Bitcoin mining power.
Supply shock predicts “good year” in 2022
While Bitcoin price forecasts focus on what might be possible in Q4 this year, some are already looking further afield — and using data to arrive at even more bullish conclusions.
One analyst painting a rosy picture for 2022 is Willy Woo, creator of data resource Woobull and well known for his Bitcoin market cycle research.
Over the weekend, Woo highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity as likely fuel for a sustained price squeeze.
Historically, he noted, decreasing supply combined with more of that supply staying in the hands of hodlers with no plans to sell creates a powerful bull signal.
His metric, “Long Term Holder Supply Shock,” clearly shows such a scenario playing out multiple times over Bitcoin’s history.
“The technical name for this chart is ‘2022 is gonna be a good year,’” he summarized to Twitter followers.
As Cointelegraph reported, long-term holders already control a near record proportion of the BTC supply, leading to expectations that the fight over the remaining coins will be more heated than ever.
This should be assisted when a physical ETF is approved, something which could happen as soon as November and continue for several months.
The BTC balance across major exchanges tracked by CryptoQuant, meanwhile, has settled at just under 2.4 million BTC after a precipitous fall in September.
The next Bitcoin bear market will come
With so much excitement about the possible Bitcoin price top this year and just how high it could be, some analysts are already turning their attention to the flipside — the bear market.
Historically, nothing goes up in a straight line, and Bitcoin is no exception. Each halving cycle has seen a price peak the year after the block subsidy halving, followed by a mid-cycle price bottom.
This cycle, several well-known market participants claim, will be no different.
As such, a price peak will be followed by an extended comedown, in line with both 2014 and 2018.
For popular Twitter analyst TechDev, this floor should nonetheless be an order of magnitude higher than the last — as much as $60,000 — but the process should already begin before 2021 is over.
“I want a lengthened cycle. Who doesn't? But nothing I've seen macro PA-wise suggests it will happen,” he warned followers at the weekend.
“Watch your indicators. 2-week RSI channel, RVI 92-93. If they're hit, I'm out. Ignore them in hopes of a new paradigm and you're likely to get dumped on by those who don't.”
Out of several accompanying charts, one neatly showed how Bitcoin’s relative strength index on two-week timeframes neatly captured each peak.
Fellow Twitter personality Rekt Capital likewise took the opportunity to remind followers and subscribers of the need to time profit-taking.
“People think BTC will never see another -80% Bear Market because it is now mainstream & too mature of an asset,” he argued.
“Let’s not forget there was a -53% correction just months ago. Average Bear Market is -84.5% deep. It’s very likely one will occur after this Bull Market.”
The weekend nonetheless produced an optimistic forecast for the bear market, with Dan Morehead, chief executive at Pantera Capital, claiming the trough would be "shallower" than the others.
As Cointelegraph reported, other measures are eyeing the good times to continue into 2022, even for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow-based Bitcoin price forecasting models, proclaimed that the bull run has at least six months left to run.
Monday constitutes the earliest conceivable launch day for the first approved United States Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product.
With BTC/USD climbing as rumors of the long-awaited go-ahead hit late last week, concerns that the episode will turn into a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event remain. This could provide for volatile trading conditions.
Poll! The approval of a #bitcoin ETF by the SEC is a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' event? #BitcoinETF
As Cointelegraph reported, misgivings also revolve around regulators halting the debut of physical Bitcoin ETFs next month, something which analysts say will stop the lion's share of institutional capital from entering the space.
The pair had hit $62,940 hours after the Wall Street open on Friday as news hit that regulators had green-lit two ETF applications after years of failed applications.
These ETFs will have CME Bitcoin futures as the underlying asset, rather than Bitcoin itself, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set to begin deciding the fate of "physical" ETFs next month.
Futures-based ETFs have had a mixed reception, with opinions varying considerably on their market impact and overall effect on Bitcoin price action.
"We are not sure if these futures-based ETFs will be able to draw enough new money to trigger an exponential move higher like the one we saw in Q4 2020," crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated in its latest market update.
"We do expect inflow from investors switching out of Gold ETFs into BTC. However, with BTC above 60k, the market capitalisation is above $1.1 trillion. It’s going to take a lot to move the needle."
QCP pointed out that the nature of futures ETFs meant that the products would likely appeal more to retail rather than institutional investors, with the lion's share of potential capital inflow into Bitcoin thus reserved for physical products.
These, however, may be a long time coming, as investors pile into existing Canadian and European physical Bitcoin ETFs instead of waiting for a potential change of play from the SEC and its new Chair, Gary Gensler.
"We suspect that after SEC Chair Gensler indirectly ruled out a physical BTC ETF in the US for the foreseeable future, investors able to access these overseas markets have decided to participate there rather than investing in the upcoming futures ETFs in the US," QCP added.
Bulls out in force despite "priced in" ETF
As Cointelegraph reported, the outlook for the rest of 2021 nonetheless remains rosy in the eyes of analysts, with Bitcoin tipped to reach anywhere up to $300,000.
According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent price surge is not the result of speculators or shorts being “squeezed” out — but large-volume buyers on derivatives platforms.
This firmly differentiates Q4 from earlier phases, notably that which produced the all-time highs from the start of 2021 onward.
As such, a classic “short squeeze” scenario, where bears are wiped out in a cascading ascending price structure, has yet to even happen.
“Massive BTC buying market orders in derivative exchanges are not from short liquidations,” Ki wrote in a blog post on Friday.
“This indicates: 1/ There are no big short positions liquidated so far 2/ Whales punted long positions since the dip.”
While opinions on the impact of such a decision are mixed, its importance is no red herring, commentators say, and marks a genuine watershed for Bitcoin which cannot be reversed.
Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch this week referenced famed investor Paul Tudor Jones while explaining the "excitement" over the Bitcoin ETF.
Tudor Jones had previously highlighted Bitcoin's cycles being similar to gold in the 1970s — just when it had become a futures product itself and enjoyed a ten-year bull run followed by a 50% correction.
Gold's 1970s rip, TechDev additionally notes, fits extremely neatly over Bitcoin's performance since October 2020.
The DOGE may have had its day, and social media is busy poking fun at Bitcoin skeptic Mark Cuban.
Dogecoin (DOGE) may have landed major proponent Mark Cuban in hot water as it hits its lowest against Bitcoin (BTC) in over half a year.
"Now price it in bananas"
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed DOGE/BTC trailing at 412 satoshis (0.00000412 BTC) on Oct. 14 — down from highs of 1,284 satoshis (0.00001284 BTC) in April.
As Bitcoin outpaces altcoins en masse this month, the pain has been especially intense for Dogecoin investors after months of public campaigning by both Cuban and others, including the world's richest man, Elon Musk.
Nothing has been able to reverse the meme-based cryptocurrency's fortunes, however, and now, frustrated commentators are even demanding an explanation.
Cuban was in line for retribution this week, with podcast host Preston Pysh suggesting that his touting of Dogecoin on U.S. national television at the highs had been — to say the least — misguided.
The moves mimicked the first time Bitcoin had attacked $58,000 in February — several attempts interspersed by consolidation, followed ultimately by a run to April's all-time highs.
Despite on-chain indicators showing that Bitcoin is a different beast in Q4, however, the mood was just as bullish this time around.
"Bitcoin is most likely just continuing this grind towards the all-time highs," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in his latest Twitter update.
"Great bounce from $54K. Highly doubt we'll see a retest at $50K happening."
Cementing $50,000 as support — albeit for a second time in 2021 — would form a clear signal on the market trajectory as pundits gear up for what they expect to be an explosive end to the year.
For trader and analyst Rekt Capital, however, there was potential cause for concern this week. Zooming out, BTC/USD has failed to close a weekly candle above $60,000, and a repeat performance could likewise spell a copycat correction
#BTC has successfully retested its Daily Bull Flag thus far
But Bitcoin is still below major Weekly resistance (red)
In fresh, albeit mixed, comments on Bitcoin, Larry Fink reiterated excitement about the future of cryptocurrency — and does not dismiss the idea that the success story could be BTC.
The chairman of multi-billion-dollar United Stated investment management corporation BlackRock “probably” agrees that Bitcoin (BTC) has no value.
In an interview with CNBC on Oct. 13, Larry Fink issued a tentative agreement with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Bitcoin’s true worth.
Fink: “I can’t tell” if Bitcoin is going to $80,000 or zero
Famed for his allusions to Bitcoin over the years, Fink, who maintains that he is not a fan of the largest cryptocurrency, nonetheless supports more people investing in the space.
“I’m not a student of Bitcoin and where it’s going to go, so I can’t tell you whether it’s going to $80,000 or zero,” he told the network.
“But I do believe that there is a huge role for a digitized currency, and I believe that’s going to help consumers worldwide — whether it’s a Bitcoin or something else or more of a governmental official digital currency, a digital dollar, that will play out.”
Fink was speaking just after Dimon had reiterated his skepticism on Bitcoin, drawing attention to his lack of faith in its finite supply.
Proponents immediately hit back at his comments, suggesting that only a lack of understanding could lead one to question what is written — and subsequently enshrined by over 12 years of immutable consensus — in the code.
“I have more conversations with people in the street on crypto than anything,” Fink continued.
“It’s fantastic seeing how people have become so fascinated about it, that they’re showing interest in this, whether it’s going to play out in the long run. We’ll see. As I said, I see huge opportunities in a digitized crypto/ blockchain-related currency, and that’s where I think it’s going — and that’s going to create some big winners and some big losers.”
Bitcoin is up almost 600% since the 2020 block subsidy halving event and has outperformed macro assets throughout 2021.
Bitcoin lies in wait to surprise critics
Bitcoin traded down from five-month highs Wednesday in what analysts believe should be the final retracement before a retest of all-time highs of $64,500.
After recovering to around $55,000, the pair looked choppy on Wednesday with no clear direction apparent in the short term.
For analysts, however, there was little surprise in the moves. $58,000 had been tipped as tricky resistance which was unlikely to break all at once, while a "buy the dip" opportunity at $53,000 or below was also on the radar for many.
"This BTC pullback doesn't worry me at all," trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized.
He added that such a consolidation and retest was likely a required feature for Bitcoin to cement new support and continue towards extant all-time highs and beyond.
Of a similar opinion was popular trader Pentoshi, who hinted that the higher low which could result from the pullback may be Bitcoin's last before an attack on higher levels.
"Clear invalidation if 48k lost," he concluded in Twitter comments Tuesday.
Lack of euphoria is "pleasant surprise"
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has kept something of a low profile despite coming within 15% of all-time highs.
The latest bullish Bitcoin price forecast further cements the case for a breakout, but a retracement could conversely end up with a visit to $45,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to see new all-time highs this month and at least $72,000 in November if the latest price data is accurate.
In a tweet on Tuesday, Filbfilb, an analyst at trading platform Decentrader, described what he said was an achievable price target for this month and next.
BTC price to $72,000? “Stranger things have happened,” says trader
With “Uptober” delivering solid bullish results so far, analysts are keen to chart where the Bitcoin bull run might lead in Q4.
As Cointelegraph reported, some predictions have used historical price comparisons and even simple calculations to deliver near-term BTC/USD targets of up to $300,000.
For Filbfilb, a move back to previous all-time highs of $64,500 and beyond in the coming weeks remains “hopium,” but the overall bullish Bitcoin market might not need much inspiration to deliver it.
“A bit of good news coupled with the stubborn hodlers though and it’s possible.. stranger things have happened,” he commented.
Despite the upward trajectory, however, he added that now is not the time to take on risk, advising traders not to use extensive leverage for long or short positions.
An accompanying chart compared 2021 to 2017, the year after the previous block subsidy halving event. Accordingly, a rematch of all-time highs by the end of October seems possible, this matching existing forecasts.
Bets rise on a $45,000 floor
On the topic of a potential retracement, meanwhile, Filbfilb mooted the idea of $48,000, amid a lack of broad selling interest.
“My head says 48 but there don’t fundamentally really seem to be any sellers beyond what’s on the exchanges. idk, I’m 50/50,” he said in Twitter comments.
This echoes Decentrader’s own targets of around $45,000–$50,000 once resistance is hit closer to $60,000.
“Similar to previous events, we then saw a correction back to retest the $50-1k level, which we are again anticipating,” a market update warned late last week.
“It is worth noting that corrections back to significant levels like $50k in this instance often do not hold up on the first time of asking, so we will be observing price action around here as prices could fall back slow as $45k as we saw in February of this year.”
At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $57,400 as 24 hours of ranging behavior followed a clip to five-month highs.
In the latest of his frequent bullish Bitcoin tweets, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted upcoming turmoil over United States fiscal policy.
“Relative to rising US debt and tensions over a potential default, Bitcoin may be entering a unique phase for a 4Q price rise as markets gain trust in the coding that defines the crypto’s supply,” he tweeted.
“The debt-ceiling drama may work against managers that avoid allocations to Bitcoin”
The concerns failed to worry the dollar at the start of the week, however, with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) climbing once more above the 94 support.
— Pentoshi Won’t Dm You. hates Dm’s. DM's are scams (@Pentosh1) October 10, 2021
The situation is particularly visible in Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, now at its lowest against BTC since the start of August.
“ETH/BTC breaking down, while Bitcoin consolidating,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized late Sunday.
“I'm assuming Bitcoin continues, while altcoins are not getting the game yet.”
Van de Poppe nonetheless added a contentious cycle price peak for ETH/USD of up to $20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 next year.
“You are here”
It takes a lot to please Bitcoiners when it comes to BTC price action.
As any longtime inhabitant of crypto Twitter will know, even the most unexpected moves in BTC/USD can only satisfy sentiment for so long before investors demand more.
Last week was no exception — Bitcoin gained $3,000 in minutes, $5,000 in an hour and hit four-month highs, but days later, commentators complained of being “bored.”
The weight of expectations for Bitcoin in 2021, the year after the third halving and therefore the deadline for a halving cycle price top, is palpable.
How far the BTC price could rise is a matter of intense debate, and while some argue that $200,000 or even $300,000 is “programmed,” others are already losing faith, claiming that this cycle cannot be like the last two.
Comparing post-halving years, however, appears to deliver an almost unanimous verdict on Bitcoin’s chances — the main rise to a blow-off top has yet to begin.
September’s dip below $40,000, for example, echoes similar events in 2013 and 2017. These came immediately before lift-off, acting as the “ultimate” bear trap.
All these findings, from popular trading account TechDev, point to this year’s peak being an order of magnitude above the last. Technical or not, the analyst argues, a six-figure high is all but logically guaranteed.
The similarities, meanwhile, are nothing new, with various sources charting the extent of price conformity to previous post-halving years throughout 2021.
One day, $31 billion settled
A lot of attention has focused on Bitcoin's network fundamentals throughout the 2020-2021 bull run, but there's more.
With hash rate and difficulty all but recovered and nearing all-time highs, fresh data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.
This week, it's about network capacity and scaling — all on-chain, before the Lightning Network is even factored in.
As noted by analyst Kevin Rooke, a single day last week saw Bitcoin handle over $30 billion of value.
"$31 billion. That's how much value was settled on the Bitcoin blockchain in a single day this week," he commented.
"It's a new all-time high for Bitcoin, and a 40x jump in settlement value since 2020 began."
The impressive transformation has been accompanied by consistency in cost — Bitcoin transaction fees remain low.
Questions over GBTC
The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to excite this week — but is an approval already “priced in?”
While U.S. regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has pushed back the deadline on deciding the fate of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month will see a “yes” or “no” on futures-backed ETF products.
The latter have attracted praise and criticism in equal measure, while a question mark also hangs over the fate of existing institutional Bitcoin instruments, notably market heavyweight, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Against a rapidly rising Bitcoin price, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount to spot, and that trend has only deepened in recent weeks.
Should ETFs get the go-ahead, analysts argue that ever more capital will flow into them, long ahead of Grayscale itself converting its funds to ETFs.
For macro analyst Lyn Alden, the chances of the so-called “Grayscale premium” returning to even neutral territory seem slim.
“I doubt it, but it's not impossible for it to happen if there is a huge bitcoin rally and no ETF available at the time,” she responded when asked in a social media discussion at the weekend.
Bitcoin's performance exceeded the base case that I wrote about it in 2020, partly due to the GBTC neutral arbitrage trade which pulled forward temporary extra demand.
Alden was updating research from last year in which she had highlighted the role of GBTC in Bitcoin price action. The relative absence of the phenomenon now, she says, is conversely positive for the sustainability of BTC price performance.
For those concerned that the return to four-month highs has been accompanied by market instability, think again.
According to sentiment gauge the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the latest BTC price uptick is firmly rooted in sustainable growth.
This contrasts with the norm — moves to highs, and especially near all-time highs, tends to see the Index reach “extreme greed.” This in turn suggests an unsustainable market which is easy to destabilize, sparking a price correction.
So far, while near $57,000, Fear & Greed measures only 71/100 — “greed” rather than “extreme greed” and still far from the classic top area of 95/100 and higher.
October has nonetheless produced major changes in sentiment. On Sept. 30, for example, just two weeks ago, the Index measured 20/100 — “extreme fear.”
Amid anticipation of fresh upside from traders, talk beyond price action continued to focus on the likelihood of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval from United States regulator — and its implications.
As Cointelegraph reported, confidence is high that a futures-backed Bitcoin ETF will get the go-ahead this month, if not a traditional spot-based product.
As has been the case throughout the years-long battle to get such an approval, however, critics continue to argue that an ETF could ultimately cause more harm than good to Bitcoin. In particular, futures came in for scrutiny this week.
“Few understand this bitcoin ETF if approved would have futures as underlying,” macro analyst Alex Krüger explained in a Twitter thread.
“Futures are usually in strong contango (i.e. futures > spot), so at rollover the ETF would *sell low to buy high*, and suffer Contango Bleed. Assets with strong contango bleed trend lower.”
Krüger added that a spot-based ETF would be the only option attractive to large-volume institutional clients, as the futures-based alternative carries excessive risk.
Mixed views on ETF benefits
Analyst Willy Woo, meanwhile, underlined the overall pros and cons of both kinds of ETF.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the fortunes of which commentators argue are already being impacted by the prospective ETF approval, continued to see negative share price relative to spot, this passing -17% Thursday.
The firm’s CEO, Michael Sonnenshein, has reiterated plans to convert potentially every fund to an ETF in the future.
A day of gains looks increasingly in jeopardy as shaky support levels provide fertile ground for fresh volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) took a trip below $54,000 during Oct. 7 as traders waited to see how far a retracement of Wednesday’s $5,000 gains could go.
BTC flirts with $1-trillion asset support
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD looking decidedly less confident Thursday, down 3% while taking aim at $53,000 — and its $1-trillion market capitalization — before recovering.
The pair had hit local highs of $55,800 — its best since before the May miner rout — but it did not take long for over-optimistic markets to show signs of fatigue.
With volatility still in evidence, analysts were taking the opportunity to zoom out from spot price action once more.
“Historically, BTC tends to enjoy an average positive monthly return of +32% in the month of October,” Rekt Capital noted.
“This October, $BTC has already rallied +29% and it’s only the first week of the month.”
While impressive, such a performance could yet signal the start of consolidation, positioning Bitcoin to form higher support before powering through to a projected $63,000 by month-end.
Such a monthly close, dubbed the “worst-case scenario,” would nonetheless far outpace average historical gains for October. Currently, the best year on record is 2017, during which BTC/USD added 47%.
Dogecoin beats the pack among altcoins
Altcoins continued to drag their feet in the wake of Bitcoin’s gains on the day — something which was not lost even on mainstream media.
The previous day had seen an abrupt surge to highs of $55,700 for Bitcoin, which was accompanied by major buying pressure.
As funding rates flip positive across exchanges, however, concerns on Thursday focused on what could end up being an opposing move lower.
Funding rates turning overly positive suggest that the market is expecting further upside and that significant value is long BTC. Under such circumstances, a mass unwinding of positions could hasten and intensify a downward move, should it begin.
The mood among investors was echoed by sentiment data, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hitting 76/100 on the day, representing “extreme greed.”
“Investors are extremely greedy towards BTC right now,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned.
Preparing for profit-taking
While under $10,000 from all-time highs at one point, Bitcoin additionally faces significant resistance levels at $58,000, $60,000, and more on the way to returning to price discovery.
As Cointelegraph reported, October is slated to close just below the highs, while November could see a return to lower levels before a December finale obliterates current records.
Nonetheless, longtime market participants are already advising an exit strategy this week, among them John Bollinger, creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator.
Second target achieved, $BTCUSD. UpperBB expanding with the rally. Keep a trailing stop like BBstop or a Chandelier going. All clear for now, but starting looking for signs of a top / exit. I am off for a couple of weeks of travel. Good trading! #Bitcoin
Stochastic RSI all but copies moves that sparked 2013’s all-time highs, but hodlers may be kept waiting until the very last minute this year.
Bitcoin (BTC) should see a “large” price increase thanks to a rare bullish phenomenon that has just hit for the first time in seven years.
In his latest update on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), popular Twitter analyst TechDev flagged major similarities between this year and the 2013 BTC bull run.
Stochastic RSI sees “especially bullish cross”
As Bitcoin heads higher, RSI has rapidly increased and is currently cooling from “overbought” territory suggestive of a temporary — even if modest — price pullback.
Zooming out, however, stochastic RSI is in the midst of repeating its moves from 2013, which preceded Bitcoin’s run to what were then all-time highs of around $1,300. For comparison, BTC/USD began that year at $13.
Stochastic RSI measures the relative strength and weakness of the RSI indicator itself.
“Bitcoin had its 2nd bullish monthly stoch RSI cross between 20 and 80 this cycle. An especially bullish cross. Sep 2021 and May 2020,” TechDev commented alongside a chart showing the action.
“This cross only happened two other times in history. You guessed it. Sep 2013 and May 2012. Large pumps followed all 3 previous crosses.”
All quiet ’til December?
As impressive as that may sound, Bitcoin bulls may have to wait a little longer for the ultimate push to the peak to hit.
Such a seemingly conservative prediction nonetheless does not conflict with other popular models, notably the “worst-case scenario” monthly close series from stock-to-flow model creator PlanB.
The forecasts demand $63,000 for October, $98,000 for November and at least $135,000 for the December monthly close. The numbers for August and September — $47,000 and $43,000, respectively — were exactly on point.
Bears betting on a fresh Bitcoin price capitulation may get definitively burned this time, argues Rekt Capital.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be battling for $50,000, but its latest move could prove to be the “ultimate” tool to make bears pay.
In a tweet on Oct. 5, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the most recent BTC price action as the “ultimate bear trap.”
Analyst predicts more suffering for Bitcoin bears
After reaching $50,000 for the first time in a month and going on to hit highs of $50,400, Bitcoin is once again the source of intense debate among market participants.
Whether BTC/USD can hold $50,000 — and how far it could fall if not — is the topic of the day as volatility continues.
For Rekt Capital, however, it is longer timeframes that are worth paying more attention to. Specifically, the weekly chart for the pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern — something which traditionally hints at fresh downside to come.
This time, based on the most recent strength, is likely different.
“Looks like that Weekly Head and Shoulders was the ultimate Bear Trap,” he summarized to Twitter followers.
Bullishness pervades sentiment
Should Bitcoin continue to climb out of its multi-week price range, the next major resistance levels lie closer to current all-time highs.
As Cointelegraph reported, the outlook for both the rest of Q4 this year and 2022 is bullish for many, with expectations calling for a peak BTC price to hit in six months or later.
This is a great time to sell Bitcoin if you want to buy back higher!
For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, a look at previous price behavior suggested upside was the more likely conclusion for current movements, with a dip likewise limited in scope.
“Given the conclusion from historical price action, it seems more likely that Bitcoin will be breaking upwards towards anything around $50,000 or maybe even the recent high, and then comes down towards $49,000 before we continue to rally back up,” he said in his latest YouTube update.
He added that an “ideal” bounce zone for a retest would be around $47,500, but any lower would not be advantageous for bulls.
Altcoins slow off the mark
Bitcoin, meanwhile, led major altcoins at the time of writing, these being slower to react.
Sky-high prices may seem hard to imagine, but so far, bullish metrics are simply repeating previous bull market years, charts show.
Bitcoin (BTC) is headed to what is arguably a mathematically "programmed" all-time high of $200,000 or more, the latest data hints.
In a series of tweets on Oct. 4, popular Twitter commentator TechDev highlighted familiar bullish behavior in Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI).
2021 Bitcoin RSI simply follows the pattern
While still lingering below targets such as those of stock-to-flow, BTC/USD is not short on bullish price predictions for both this year and beyond.
RSI, a classic indicator used for identifying overbought and oversold markets at a particular price, is joining them, suggesting that the second phase of the 2021 bull run is just getting started.
Just as Bitcoin price action has gone in four-year cycles, so too has RSI exhibited patterns of behavior through the years.
"Each cycle has had 2 peaks. 2021 now moving toward its second," TechDev explained.
In each four-year cycle, RSI hits a peak at a level slightly lower to the last - this likewise helps to identify a cycle top slightly in advance. Where BTC/USD will be at the time, however, is a much less exact science.
"Interesting to note the 8 year downtrending resistance," TechDev added.
"We hit that and it's probably top. Or at least a place to seriously re-evaluate risk."
Further figures suggest that the BTC price top this time around could be $200,000 or more.
"200-300K Bitcoin looks almost too programmed," TechDev added alongside a different chart showing fibonacci levels.
These likewise hinge on the four-year halving cycle, with each peak an order of magnitude higher than the last. For 2021, this means that $20,000 from 2017 should become anything from $200,000 to $300,000.
This neatly coincides with the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which calls for an average price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle ending in 2024.
Creator PlanB has nonetheless said that local highs during that time could easily be double that average, placing Bitcoin at over half a million dollars.
$50,000 may not come easily, but zooming out, there's barely a bear in the house when it comes to Bitcoin price action.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week fresh from its first attempt to crack $50,000 in over a month — what’s in store next?
After an encouraging weekend, BTC/USD faces an increasingly bullish macro climate and a host of expectations from analysts who demand that October changes the game.
Q4, they say, should be unlike anything yet seen in the current Bitcoin bull run, and the latest estimates even argue that there is more than six months left to prove it.
With “Uptober” set for its first full week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what factors could be next to move the market in the coming days.
Markets brace for “tumultuous ride” this October
Stocks may have had a flat September, but the first few days of the new month have already shown how just a little good news can see Bitcoin outperform the macro pack.
While the S&P 500 fell 5% in September, BTC/USD closed the month around $4,000 below where it closed out August.
Since Oct. 1, however, the pair’s fortunes have firmly set a different tone, and against expectations for stocks to rally at the expense of the U.S. dollar, positive headwinds for Bitcoin may well continue.
“Q4 2021 will likely record a higher-than-average return,” CNBC quoted Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at research firm CFRA, as saying over the weekend.
“However, investors will need to hang on tight during the typically tumultuous ride in October, which saw 36% higher volatility when compared with the average for the other 11 months.”
Last week’s sentiment was driven by the vote on the U.S. infrastructure bill, this now being pushed back until, at the latest, Oct. 31.
One of my reasons to be bullish on #BTC: DXY chart
2 days ago in live stream: "DXY hitting red box, should reverse soon and start a correction"
As it stands, USD is at its highest in over a year, as measured by the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY). A reversal in recent days — traditionally a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin — is on traders’ radar.
For popular Twitter trader Crypto Ed, a DXY correction could even last months rather than weeks.
$50,000, but not yet
After clipping $49,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin is clearly lining up an attack on the all-important $50,000 mark — just not quite yet.
Despite bullish impulses, Sunday’s latest break to the upside ended with a hefty rejection and subsequent drop of almost $2,000.
Commentators broadly dismissed this as being a bearish signal, however, maintaining that any BTC price weakness will be temporary.
Among them is Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, who on the day repeated his recent theory about brief consolidation followed by a fresh bullish breakout.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital additionally noted the Pi Cycle 111-day moving average holding as support, fuelling the recent rally.
New hash rate all-time highs trickle in
You can never know for sure, but by some estimates, Bitcoin hash rate has already hit new all-time highs.
Less than five months after China sparked a mass migration of miners and equipment due to a regulatory crackdown, data sources are showing that the fundamental metric has fully compensated for the upheaval.
Not only that, but the hash rate may have even hit 200 exahashes per second (EH/s) in recent days — a full 32 EH/s above its previous peak.
Measuring hash rate is difficult — mining power dedicated to Bitcoin is impossible to ascertain exactly, and so any depiction can only be a guess.
While different sources vary widely — CoinWarz recorded 201 EH/s on Oct. 2 while MiningPoolStats currently shows just 138 EH/s — the overall trend is undebatable.
Bitcoin network fundamentals are firmly in “up only” mode, reflecting the continued long-term conviction miners have on profitability.
“China kicked out nearly 90% of bitcoin miners in the country earlier this year. Hash rate fell approximately 50% as a result,” Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano commented on the data.
“Only a few months later and we are almost back to an all-time high. Economic incentives drive further network decentralization.”
As Cointelegraph reported last week, difficulty is also set to challenge records this week, with the next adjustment likely being the seventh increase in a row.
This has not happened since 2019, while difficulty remains around 20% below its all-time highs seen in May.
It’s no secret that Bitcoin’s best-known analysts are calling for a spectacular Q4 performance from BTC price action.
For PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow model family, the “worst case scenario” for Bitcoin has come true two months running.
His floor estimates now call for $63,000 by the end of October, and a whopping $98,000 for the November close.
Zooming out, however, the picture remains even more rosy for Bitcoin bulls, he says. In his latest stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) update, PlanB showed price behavior being roughly 50% through its bull cycle, leaving the door open for rapid gains.
“IMO we are midway, no sign of weakness (red) yet. Note color overlay is not months to halving but an on-chain signal,” he commented on the chart.
“My guess: this 2nd leg of the bull market will have at least 6 more months to go.”
Bitcoin still has to play catch-up with stock-to-flow’s daily estimates, spot price having deviated by record proportions in recent months.
For Monday, according to monitoring resource S2F Multiple, BTC/USD should be trading at just over $100,000.
Pricing in a Bitcoin ETF
As Cointelegraph reported, the odds are on for some sort of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to get U.S. regulatory approval this month.
As the SEC "kicks the can" on traditional Bitcoin ETFs, the Bitcoin futures equivalent is gearing up for likely approval, says Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas.
A Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) has a 75% chance of being approved this month — in some form.
In comments this weekend, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg, said that United States Bitcoin futures ETFs were “likely on schedule” for the regulatory green light.
Bitcoin futures ETFs "very much alive"
October began with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing a frustrating yet not uncommon delay to their decision on whether or not to approve Bitcoin ETFs.
The various applications, instead of being allowed or denied this month, will now begin to be processed in November.
According to Balchunas, however, Futures-based ETFs are more likely than not to pass muster in the coming weeks.
“Yes, the SEC has kicked can on bitcoin ETF approval BUT that is for the physically-backed ones under '33 Act,” he told Twitter followers.
“The futures ETFs filed under the '40 Act (which Genz loves) are very much alive and likely on schedule (we think 75% chance approved in Oct).”
Balchunas referred to SEC chair Garry Gensler, who last week hinted at a permissive stance regarding the instruments.
“Subsequently, we’ve started to see filings under the Investment Company Act with regard to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeking to invest in CME-traded bitcoin futures,” he said in concluding remarks at the Future of Asset Management North America Conference.
“When combined with the other federal securities laws, the ’40 Act provides significant investor protections for mutual funds and ETFs. I look forward to staff’s review of such filings.”
Canada's Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which got the go-ahead at the start of the year, beating the U.S. offerings, continues to go from strength to strength.
A long and winding ETF road
The history of Bitcoin ETFs has now spanned several years and seen multiple make-or-break moments in which proponents were all but certain that the SEC would grant its approval.